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Bitcoin has been dropping about 10k per month the last few months. The next big 10k drop should come around the middle of July, and in August I predict the price will be in the low thousands.
>from $3 trillion to roughly $900 billion, and analysts predict the meltdown will continue. It's even worse than that. The $900 billion is about 20% stable coins.
"And nothing of value was lost." This was one of the top voted posts in the Austin subreddit recently: https://old.reddit.com/r/Austin/comments/vmtmul/finally_some... Seriously, during other crashes, I remember thinking of the real negative externalities that happened during the crash, e.g. many economists have drawn lines to the current housing supply crunch due to underinvestment after the Great Recession. I don't…
It’s a demonstration of the societal value of bad businesses going under. There are certain ideas that people just cannot be swayed against by evidence, especially if they have skin in the game. The real destructiveness of crypto is the other ideas that have been starved for oxygen during this bubble. I am glad it looks like we are beginning to move on.
I always think about this when I see people rail against short sellers, as if the whole idea of betting against a company is morally wrong.
Short sellers are one of the only checks against overly inflated equity prices. If the only people allowed to participate in a market are the believers, you are going to get a very distorted view of the actual value of assets.
For the market to do its thing, you need failure.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'm also bearish on crypto, but by that logic it will be at -10k three months from now.
right now the decline still seems to be at a constant rate
Anyway i would bet 2 bitcoin that it will not be down another ten thousand in a month. However im not aware of any escrow that would hold btc for one party and usd for the other as im sure you don’t want to bet in btc if you think that asset is dropping. Not without using some derivatives on eth that I don’t trust anyway.
Curious how long the crypto.com arena will stay with that name, one year into the naming rights lease…
(Some of us have more interest in one than the other.)
Bitcoin has been dropping about 10k per month the last few months. The next big 10k drop should come around the middle of July, and in August I predict the price will be in the low thousands.
We’re learning how much leverage went into puffing up the crypto bubble. Bond yields go up, loans get called, crypto fire sale. The Fed meets last week July, if they telegraph another monster hike (looks likely, but they might lose their nerve) it’s gonna another crypto bloodbath.
"And nothing of value was lost." This was one of the top voted posts in the Austin subreddit recently: https://old.reddit.com/r/Austin/comments/vmtmul/finally_some... Seriously, during other crashes, I remember thinking of the real negative externalities that happened during the crash, e.g. many economists have drawn lines to the current housing supply crunch due to underinvestment after the Great Recession. I don't…
What’s interesting about this crash is prices are still so high. Bitcoin is close to 20,000$ right now. So there are still huge paper losses, but I doubt that many bought in at just 20+k. It’s odd to look prices dropping to 1/3 and think thing things could get a lot worse or it could turn into just another blip on a larger upwards trajectory.
I suspect that most retail Bitcoin holders bought it last year and are down 30-70%. The people who post on HN are very much outliers, having known about Bitcoin for a decade. The real retail volume in 2021 came from relatively uninformed people buying their first crypto.
Also, there are the publicly listed corporate whales. Tesla has 42,000 Bitcoins bought at an average price of $31,620. MicroStrategy has over 130,000 Bitcoins bought at an average price around $30k as well.
Public company accounting standards require these companies to mark down their crypto holdings regularly, so it seems that Tesla will be booking a roughly $420M loss for the past quarter, and MSTR has lost a whopping $1.3 billion. (I'm sure Musk appreciates that the loss is close to 420 though, even if Tesla shareholders don't.)
Earlier quoted context omitted.
We’re learning how much leverage went into puffing up the crypto bubble. Bond yields go up, loans get called, crypto fire sale. The Fed meets last week July, if they telegraph another monster hike (looks likely, but they might lose their nerve) it’s gonna another crypto bloodbath.
I mean crypto is just the most risky asset. You are seeing this in everything just look at tech stocks. But everyone on here wants to act like crypto is some malicious actor for whatever reason instead of realizing it just has much smaller volume.