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The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

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Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#431

Post by andi999 »

Paradigma11 wrote: post #423
tomp wrote: post #341

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because Trump threatened to strike back. Putin was afraid of Trump, but he knows that Biden has no spine. https://nypost.com/2022/02/22/trump-talks-threatening-putin-... > “If you move against Ukraine while I’m president,” Trump is said to have told the Russian leader, “I will hit Moscow.” > Putin reportedly scoffed, “No way,” leading Trump to say, “All those beautiful golden turrets will be blown up.”

Trump didnt even protect his kurd allies from the turks when all he had to do was do nothing.

You cannot compare these two situation.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#432

Post by tacocataco »

vbezhenar wrote: post #56
BatFastard wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would imagine that this would first manifest itself in smaller countries. For example Mali employs the Wagner group out of Russia as a supplement for its Army. And I believe they are used by other countries as well. I don't see nuclear-armed nations using private companies, but possibly being the source of troops and technology. Really I don't see U.S. citizens joining mercenary groups, quality of life is too good.…

US mercenaries: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blackwater_(company) One issue with mercenaries is that they're not subject to military laws and will be hang if captured. Like it happens with few american citizens captured in Ukraine by DNR.

I always assumed the mercenaries were mixed with volunteers into Ukraine's foreign legion.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#433

Post by tacocataco »

nostrademons wrote: post #2

Interesting to combine this line of thinking with the transition from nation-states to market-states: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1744057060106386... The power vacuum that's arisen from populism & isolationism is about to create a gigantic untapped market for firms that provide the services of a state - defense, dispute resolution, and currency - for a fee, to gigantic multinational corporations. At t…

Sounds like the analog version of what you're describing would be (IMO) the East Indian Trading Company.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#434

Post by tacocataco »

FooBarBizBazz wrote: post #274
smt88 wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a popular theory on reddit, but it's not true. Birth rates are extremely low even in countries that paid parents to stay at home with kids and generally have good work culture. You would also expect birth rates to be lowest among people working 2-3 low-wage jobs, which is also not true. As financial stability and safety increase, birth rates go down. That's the only common driver of it. Historically, children…

> Birth rates are extremely low even in countries that paid parents to stay at home with kids and generally have good work culture. I'll still bet that there's a significant career opportunity cost to leaving the workforce for a while like that. > You would also expect birth rates to be lowest among people working 2-3 low-wage jobs, which is also not true. If anything, aren't these the people for whom the opportunity…

> "Can you make money or can you not?"

I'm dating right now, and it's almost always one of the first things asked. Tinder let's you stick that info up front so people can filter appropriately.

Edit: Just double checked, occupation data is right below your name and age.

Although people use much more flowery language then what you use.

"What do you do for a living?" And so on.

Wish me luck finding someone to split rent with. Peace y'all.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#435

Post by tacocataco »

bergenty wrote: post #394
yrgulation wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Their populations will shrink with mathematical certainty. Yeah you know why? Because both parents sitting in offices 8 hours a day have no means of looking after their kids. And a mother giving birth needs to return to work in a few months time, else she there's no pay. Oh and neither parent can give up work to raise these future adults because living expenses are too high. I don't know why everyone is so surprise…

The worst mistake we made is normalizing working for women.

I'm sure there are lots of men who would want to be a stay at home dad.

I doubt it's a realistic option for the vast majority of men though.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#436

Post by causality0 »

jjtec wrote: post #402
causality0 wrote: post #294

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What bothers me is the sheer mass of factually incorrect statements Zeihan makes that would be trivial to check if he bothered. Things like "China only makes the low-end computer chips, anything that's going into a cellphone or laptop is made in the USA"

What bothers me is you are obviously a chinese Shill

Zeihan is completely right about China's demographic nightmare. I just don't think we're going to get off as Scott-free as he thinks we are without major domestic investments done now instead of later.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#437

Post by tacocataco »

PakistaniDenzel wrote: post #278
topher515 wrote: post #246

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I just want to take some issue with your characterization of "with mathematical certainty". You're completely right that given fertility rates are under replacement rate—from memory: 2.1 children per woman—populations will decrease with mathematical certainty. But there is no universal law that developed countries must remain below replacement fertility levels; that's just what has always happened so far —given the c…

Look at Russia's attempts since ~2006 to basically throw money at their fertility problem and see how well it has worked out for them. There is just no actual need like there used to be (farm labor) for kids these days. Unless house prices crash such that people on minimum wage can afford a large house and still have lots of disposable income to put towards children I don't see how this can be solved with money. A cu…

> Unless house prices crash such that people on minimum wage can afford a large house and still have lots of disposable income to put towards children I don't see how this can be solved with money.

Am I misreading your comment?

"Unless people on minimum wage get more money, I don't see how this can be solved with money."

Can you elaborate what you meant here please?

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#438

Post by asah »

ip26 wrote: post #127
asah wrote: post #87

awesome. I'm confused about two things: 1. "Not a single ship captain works in the Pentagon or any of the major national security think tanks." - I doubt there are satellite operators, travel industry execs, farmers or construction workers either. US military leaders are tasked with zero substantial threats to US peace, security and order, and mostly succeeds, with the exceptions rare enough to be newsworthy (JFK/etc…

individual losses are a financial matter and not existential threat That's entirely a function of the loss rate. If 50% of voyages are seized by pirates, that's not just a financial matter.

Sure, but at that point the military of course steps in... (long before that point...) so again I'm confused...

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#439

Post by asah »

bombcar wrote: post #120
asah wrote: post #87

awesome. I'm confused about two things: 1. "Not a single ship captain works in the Pentagon or any of the major national security think tanks." - I doubt there are satellite operators, travel industry execs, farmers or construction workers either. US military leaders are tasked with zero substantial threats to US peace, security and order, and mostly succeeds, with the exceptions rare enough to be newsworthy (JFK/etc…

A TEU is a "Twenty-foot-equivalent" or a half-container (most containers you see are 40 footers. But the boats that carry them are huge and slow and absolutely sitting ducks to even a small navy (the Coast Guard could sink them, and improvised equipment could trash them relatively easily). If there was any risk of losing one of those ships to deliberate activity, all hell would break loose (the theory behind the arti…

Sure, but after a couple are lost, the military would of course step in... so again I'm confused why the doomsday talk...

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#440

Post by smt88 »

germinalphrase wrote: post #396
smt88 wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a popular theory on reddit, but it's not true. Birth rates are extremely low even in countries that paid parents to stay at home with kids and generally have good work culture. You would also expect birth rates to be lowest among people working 2-3 low-wage jobs, which is also not true. As financial stability and safety increase, birth rates go down. That's the only common driver of it. Historically, children…

When you say “Ponzi scheme of retirement” are you referring to social security, pensions, other retiree payment plans? Or something else?

Social security, yes. The other things... kinda.

Social security (in the US) is explicitly designed such that each generation is paying for the one that came before it and generally needs to be larger.

Pensions could and should work just as long as the funds grow faster than inflation, although in practice they can also indirectly rely on younger people paying for older people.

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