Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

gcaptain.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

371–380 of 483 posts

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#371

Post by vkou »

bombcar wrote: post #362
vkou wrote: post #295

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Furthermore, after the one-time pain, assuming they survive the pain, the sanctioned nation arguably ends up stronger because they're forced to develop in-house versions of things. Which is why North Korea is now a world-leader in... Oh, right. They are an impoverished Chinese vassal, that can barely even keep its own people fed. I don't understand where all this 'Sanctions do nothing' zeitgeist is coming from. Is…

List the countries that are 1. not tiny little jokes of a country and 2. not currently already under heavy sanctions that the US can sanction without harming themselves.

1. North Korea is a country of 26 million people. That's bigger than most of the countries in Europe, and is half the population of its nearest neighbour, South Korea. If the 20-million-to-40-million person range is a joke of a country, well, I've got to say, the overwhelming majority of the world's countries are that size or smaller.

The reason it's a joke of a country is precisely because of sanctions (and equivalents thereof). It didn't becomes stronger due to being cut off from foreign trade - unlike its sibling SEA nations, it failed to develop in large part because of it.

2. Without harming itself? Even one iota? There aren't any. Without harming itself disproportionately less than its harming the sanctioned country? Almost every country in the world. [1] Doubly so if it does so in lockstep with the EU.

Of course sanctions harm the country invoking them. But like going to war against a weaker country, they harm the target a lot more than they harm the issuer. Cuba, Iraq and Iran were all impoverished, compared to their peers, by sanctions. Russia's well on it's way to eating a boot, economically. The US sure seems to be getting a lot of mileage out of this 'one-use' weapon...

[1] China, Japan, Mexico, maaaaaaaaybe Canada, Taiwan, and a few countries in Europe are the only ones I can think of, where sanctions against them would hurt the US almost as much as it would hurt them.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#372

Post by notahacker »

tablespoon wrote: post #321
notahacker wrote: post #228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nope. Malthus made his observation based on history . He just happened to do so at the worst possible time, as the next couple of centuries saw unprecedented advances in food production and distribution followed by the more developed countries getting their population in check

> Nope. Malthus made his observation based on history. He just happened to do so at the worst possible time, as the next couple of centuries saw unprecedented advances in food production and distribution followed by the more developed countries getting their population in check Isn't that also a problem with the "refutations" of him? They're also based on history, just slightly more recent history. It's quite possibl…

A universal law refuted by 200 years of completely different patterns isn't resuscitated because someone, somewhere may run out of food in some situation completely unlike the one Malthus described (i.e. food production always grows arithmetically, population always grows geometrically unless plague and famine kill enough people off... complete with extended musing on how to diminish or defer the "passion between the sexes" which assumes contraception isn't a thing)

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#373

Post by csomar »

floxy wrote: post #190
DennisP wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I just read all Zeihan's books. The only counterargument I can think of is that maybe with our interdependent world, sanctions have gotten effective enough to substitute for US military power to some extent. Zeihan himself has said China has to be reevaluating the idea of an attack on Taiwan, after seeing the sanctions and boycotts against Russia. Sanctions haven't stopped Russia but Russia is a food and fuel exporte…

What are some good examples of when sanctions "worked"? Apartheid-era South Africa? Maybe in delaying Iran developing nuclear weapons? Are any of the following considered success stories for sanctions? - Saddam era Iraq - North Korea - Cuba - Venezuela Apparently the U.S. has quite a list of sanctions: https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financial-sanctions/...

All of these are completely non-functioning, bankrupt and incapable countries. The sanctions DO work, despite these countries being rich in resources (except NK).

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#374

Post by arcturus17 »

antisthenes wrote: post #363
tablespoon wrote: post #321

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Nope. Malthus made his observation based on history. He just happened to do so at the worst possible time, as the next couple of centuries saw unprecedented advances in food production and distribution followed by the more developed countries getting their population in check Isn't that also a problem with the "refutations" of him? They're also based on history, just slightly more recent history. It's quite possibl…

Bingo. You hit the nail on the head. Most people who say Malthus is wrong are refuting a strawman that has nothing to do with the original strong argument.

Sorry but no - plenty of Malthusian arguments have been disproven.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#375

Post by acuozzo »

immigrantheart wrote: post #366
TheCowboy wrote: post #346

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is you're posting these bullets without a thoughtful explanation. You're going to need a fragmentation of the internet to truly stamp out diversity and multiculturalism. Why you would want to do that? I don't know, but good luck with embracing non-existent cultural purity. I'll pick on the "less invasive nations" part which is wishful thinking. If you have America or any multilateral global order among de…

The fragmentation of the internet simply shows that the topic is worth it. You seem to be quite triggered by it though, which makes it even worth it.

TheCowboy doesn't seem triggered at all in his reply. It reads as both neutral and thoughtful.

Were you hoping to trigger someone?

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#376

Post by AussieWog93 »

spaceman_2020 wrote: post #75

I’ve been following Zeihan since his first book. I’m yet to find a credible counter argument to his theses. And he’s being proven right at an alarming pace this year. So far this year we’ve had: - A land war in Europe - Food insecurity in the developing world - Breakdown of supply chains and shipping routes - Nation states resorting to seizing each other’s ships (see Greece-Iran issue recently). Everything that he ha…

>Or import them from elsewhere - which causes all sorts of cultural and societal conflicts.

I might be a bit biased in this regard (see username), but I've always thought the issue of immigration is massively overblown by journalists and politicians in order to get clicks/listeners/votes.

Both at home and when traveling, it's surprising how well understood "global culture" is by pretty much everyone who lives in a city or large town. Outside of language barriers, things like catching a train or buying a bottle of Coke are all done much the same way no matter where you came from.

I distinctly remember one instance where this old Ethiopian guy, who didn't know a single word of English, successfully managed to communicate that he'd forgotten to grab something and I should save his space in the supermarket queue.

Outside of specific conflicts (Serbia/Croatia, India/Pakistan), or particular instances where one particular group has turned out to cause a whole lot of trouble, the policy as a whole seems surprisingly effective.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#377

Post by csomar »

nostrademons wrote: post #2

Interesting to combine this line of thinking with the transition from nation-states to market-states: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1744057060106386... The power vacuum that's arisen from populism & isolationism is about to create a gigantic untapped market for firms that provide the services of a state - defense, dispute resolution, and currency - for a fee, to gigantic multinational corporations. At t…

That's like Brazil but for the whole world?

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#378

Post by InvertedRhodium »

philwelch wrote: post #312
worik wrote: post #308

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is a tautology that "grow at all costs" is not a sustainable economic order. It has been apparent since at least the 1970s that the limits to the growth phase of industrialisation is looming. It has been blindingly obvious for twenty years that we urgently need to change our economies to not require growth to maintain development. This is not new. It has been shouted from the roof tops for decades. Not shifting ec…

“We should content ourselves with being poorer than our parents were”. Fuck no.

"We should ignore reality"

Fuck no.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#379

Post by philwelch »

momojo wrote: post #328
philwelch wrote: post #312

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“We should content ourselves with being poorer than our parents were”. Fuck no.

What about "We should be content with not being as wealthy as our parents"?

That’s just a rephrasing of what I said to make it sound less bad. Also, fuck no.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#380

Post by philwelch »

potta_coffee wrote: post #344
philwelch wrote: post #312

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“We should content ourselves with being poorer than our parents were”. Fuck no.

Our parents and grandparents borrowed from the future in order to attain that wealth. Now we have to suck it up.

False.
Post reply on HN