361–370 of 483 posts
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If financial sanctions get bypassed, another cheap US option is to confiscate a couple ships heading to the sanctioned country, making commercial shipping insurance difficult to get. That would be a pretty big step though, essentially changing the US from the guarantor of the open seas to their biggest threat. So that might precipitate Zeihan's Disorder instead of preventing it.
They did it with Venezuela-Iran oil tankers already.
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Furthermore, after the one-time pain, assuming they survive the pain, the sanctioned nation arguably ends up stronger because they're forced to develop in-house versions of things. I'm just waiting for China to decide they're strong enough to cut the US off. Assuming we survive the pain, that'll be an interesting day.
> Furthermore, after the one-time pain, assuming they survive the pain, the sanctioned nation arguably ends up stronger because they're forced to develop in-house versions of things. Which is why North Korea is now a world-leader in... Oh, right. They are an impoverished Chinese vassal, that can barely even keep its own people fed. I don't understand where all this 'Sanctions do nothing' zeitgeist is coming from. Is…
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Nope. Malthus made his observation based on history . He just happened to do so at the worst possible time, as the next couple of centuries saw unprecedented advances in food production and distribution followed by the more developed countries getting their population in check
> Nope. Malthus made his observation based on history. He just happened to do so at the worst possible time, as the next couple of centuries saw unprecedented advances in food production and distribution followed by the more developed countries getting their population in check Isn't that also a problem with the "refutations" of him? They're also based on history, just slightly more recent history. It's quite possibl…
You hit the nail on the head. Most people who say Malthus is wrong are refuting a strawman that has nothing to do with the original strong argument.
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> Might we see the nation-state get replaced by a web of competing mercenaries, each of which effectively serves as a protection racket for their customers? Snow Crash, by Neal Stephenson, explores this possible future. Great book.
The takeover of government functions by multinational corporations is a cyberpunk trope. See any of William Gibson's fiction from the early 80s.
Anyone else excited for de-globalization and slower economies/development? I can't think of any negative consequences of these. On the other hand, these seems to be positives for me: - less diversity - less multiculturalism - less polarization (due to 2 above) - hopefully more inward progress looking/more defensive nations and less invasive nations - slower tech/innovation, people can catch up with life, lawmakers ca…
The problem is you're posting these bullets without a thoughtful explanation. You're going to need a fragmentation of the internet to truly stamp out diversity and multiculturalism. Why you would want to do that? I don't know, but good luck with embracing non-existent cultural purity. I'll pick on the "less invasive nations" part which is wishful thinking. If you have America or any multilateral global order among de…
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If the opinion you share is unpopular, it's because it's correct, and the truth is the enemy of the oligarchs that are scamming citizens in the US and the West in general. US is now a scam that exports inflation and crap 2nd rate weaponry. Scam economy, scam military industrial complex, scam military, scam president, scam everything. If you have a feeling the US is in decline, it's because it is. The situation is muc…
Meh. Go to any other country and you'll soon discover that the US isn't so bad. And I say that as a European who's been to quite a few countries.
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In the hey-day of manufacturing things like shoes and clothing in the US, these things weren't considered "good" jobs. You can easily find numerous articles in national magazines from the period decrying them as dangerous, monotonous, and otherwise awful. You can still buy a $600 pair of boots or derbys from Alden of New England (I have a pair) or Viberg. But these are niche products within a niche. If you're talking…
> In the hey-day of manufacturing things like shoes and clothing in the US, these things weren't considered "good" jobs. My understanding is that a family can afford middle-class life with a single blue-collar job with the US has a prosperous manufacturing industry. > If you're talking about high end manufacturing like cars, planes, specialized steel or similar we still do tons of that in the US. I thought the market…
You’re referring to a slice of the whole pie globally, However the pie is much larger now. Every industrial nation other than the US was basically leveled in WWII so we had a huge slice from the jump.
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Just going to chime in with a non political fact: the withdrawal treaty was done by the previous administration, the planning by the military. It was always going to be a shit show. Presidents are not all powerful gods who control things like the stock market, inflation, or pulling everyone out of a foreign country.
I voted for Biden in 2020. It feels better to say this wasn't his fault for those of us who voted for him. It was his fault, and primarily a failure of his administration, especially Jake Sullivan, who is the least qualified National Security Advisor I've ever seen, including those who advised GW Bush, which is saying something. His qualifications are primarily political and partisan, and he's incredibly thin on actu…
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Also some of these seem like almost vacuous statements. Predicting food insecurity(or any other type of insecurity) in the developing world is not a groundbreaking prediction.
Here’s one for you: He predicted the invasion of Ukraine back in this video from 2017 (actually earlier, but this was the easiest source for me to cite): https://youtu.be/rkuhWA9GdCo The whole video is pretty short, but he mentions Ukraine about 2 1/2 minutes in.