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The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

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Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#331

Post by derriz »

ren_engineer wrote: post #286
derriz wrote: post #257

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think using IBM is an appropriate comparison. It is a company in actual decline - revenues peaked at about $110B just over ten years ago and were less than $60B last year. Like I said US manufacturing output is growing and has been growing. And I don't subscribe to a zero-sum view. Just because other historically poorer countries have grown economically doesn't hurt Americans (the opposite) or their way of li…

the US objectively loses a massive amount of foreign policy leverage by not being the largest manufacturer anymore, this is undeniable and obvious when you see how many countries are openly not sticking with the US with regards to Ukraine because they can just side with China, Russia, and India. The US has gone from 40% of global GDP in the 60s to less than 20%, they've lost relative power when it comes to global iss…

The US has also gained immense power through growth in other sectors like finance/banking/insurance - the biggest sector in terms of US GDP. The second biggest sector - professional/business services - also allows the US to project immense power - particularly when combined with the fact that the US dominates global banking and finance.

Looking at a table of US GDP by sector, what rebalancing are you suggesting would increase the ability of US to project power globally? For more Americans and US capital to be involved in manufacturing, some other sector will have to shrink. And manufacturing is already the fourth biggest sector.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#332

Post by leobg »

spaceman_2020 wrote: post #75

I’ve been following Zeihan since his first book. I’m yet to find a credible counter argument to his theses. And he’s being proven right at an alarming pace this year. So far this year we’ve had: - A land war in Europe - Food insecurity in the developing world - Breakdown of supply chains and shipping routes - Nation states resorting to seizing each other’s ships (see Greece-Iran issue recently). Everything that he ha…

I found that when drawing conclusions for the financial markets from demographic changes such as the Boomer generation entering retirement he seems to completely ignore inheritance. People getting older forms just suck money out of the system. It also pumps money into it.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#333

Post by hintymad »

ch4s3 wrote: post #192
hintymad wrote: post #167

This is probably an unpopular opinion: it pains me to see the manufacturing industry decline in the US. I don't really mind paying $300 for a pair of shoes. Yes, it will be expensive, but then I'll just buy fewer pairs. In return, more people get decent jobs, or so I hope. And no, I'm not talking about just the so-called "low-end" manufacturing, but also the high end. Indeed, how can we even grow "high-end" talent if…

In the hey-day of manufacturing things like shoes and clothing in the US, these things weren't considered "good" jobs. You can easily find numerous articles in national magazines from the period decrying them as dangerous, monotonous, and otherwise awful. You can still buy a $600 pair of boots or derbys from Alden of New England (I have a pair) or Viberg. But these are niche products within a niche. If you're talking…

> In the hey-day of manufacturing things like shoes and clothing in the US, these things weren't considered "good" jobs.

My understanding is that a family can afford middle-class life with a single blue-collar job with the US has a prosperous manufacturing industry.

> If you're talking about high end manufacturing like cars, planes, specialized steel or similar we still do tons of that in the US.

I thought the market share was declining. The US used to have more than 68% of market share in manufacturing in the world back in 2001 or 2002, but now it is about 40%? It can't be that only low-end manufacturing that is gone, right?

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#334

Post by whoomp12342 »

hintymad wrote: post #167

This is probably an unpopular opinion: it pains me to see the manufacturing industry decline in the US. I don't really mind paying $300 for a pair of shoes. Yes, it will be expensive, but then I'll just buy fewer pairs. In return, more people get decent jobs, or so I hope. And no, I'm not talking about just the so-called "low-end" manufacturing, but also the high end. Indeed, how can we even grow "high-end" talent if…

your hope implies that the greed will balance and workers wont simply just be exploited all over again.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#335

Post by japhib »

D_Alex wrote: post #297
spaceman_2020 wrote: post #75

I’ve been following Zeihan since his first book. I’m yet to find a credible counter argument to his theses. And he’s being proven right at an alarming pace this year. So far this year we’ve had: - A land war in Europe - Food insecurity in the developing world - Breakdown of supply chains and shipping routes - Nation states resorting to seizing each other’s ships (see Greece-Iran issue recently). Everything that he ha…

I only read the linked article, not the books. I think that the thesis (as professed by the article) that the "deglobalization" is largely due to the decline of the US Navy is pretty silly. "Decline in the standard of US foreign policy and diplomacy" - in itself an ill-judged reaction to the rise of China's economic power and influence - is much closer to the mark. Of course the Covid pandemic didn't help either.

> I think that the thesis (as professed by the article) that the "deglobalization" is largely due to the decline of the US Navy is pretty silly

Why?

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#336

Post by immigrantheart »

Anyone else excited for de-globalization and slower economies/development? I can't think of any negative consequences of these.

On the other hand, these seems to be positives for me:

- less diversity

- less multiculturalism

- less polarization (due to 2 above)

- hopefully more inward progress looking/more defensive nations and less invasive nations

- slower tech/innovation, people can catch up with life, lawmakers can catch up with regulations

- better for the environment

I welcome the downvotes, but please give thoughtful replies.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#337

Post by tomp »

colinmhayes wrote: post #244
MR4D wrote: post #194

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here’s one for you: He predicted the invasion of Ukraine back in this video from 2017 (actually earlier, but this was the easiest source for me to cite): https://youtu.be/rkuhWA9GdCo The whole video is pretty short, but he mentions Ukraine about 2 1/2 minutes in.

I predicted the invasion of Ukraine in 2014 after no one gave a shit about the Crimean invasion. Plenty of other people did too, it wasn't even a difficult prediction to make, Putin has been very clear about his Ukrainian ambition for a long time. Remember Trump's first impeachment? It was literally about withholding military aid to Ukraine, all of the state department officials were bewildered because they knew abou…

> Remember Trump's first impeachment? It was literally about withholding military aid to Ukraine

Don't fall for left-wing propaganda. The impeachment was all about politics, the "withholding military aid" was just a convenient excuse.

The actual fact is, Trump provided way more military aid to Ukraine than e.g. Obama.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/16/politics/us-ukraine-aid-f... (ignore the title, focus on the text:)

> While the Trump administration was the first willing to provide lethal weapons to Ukraine, the Obama administration did provide defense and military equipment.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#338

Post by hintymad »

taylodl wrote: post #203
hintymad wrote: post #167

This is probably an unpopular opinion: it pains me to see the manufacturing industry decline in the US. I don't really mind paying $300 for a pair of shoes. Yes, it will be expensive, but then I'll just buy fewer pairs. In return, more people get decent jobs, or so I hope. And no, I'm not talking about just the so-called "low-end" manufacturing, but also the high end. Indeed, how can we even grow "high-end" talent if…

It's only unpopular because it flies in the face of economics. You say you're fine paying $300 for a pair of shoes - but are you okay with your livelihood being making shoes? If you're capable of doing higher-value work then isn't it a "waste" for you to be doing lower-value work? The U.S. has invested trillions of dollars building an infrastructure that has led its citizens to being some of the best-educated and mos…

> but are you okay with your livelihood being making shoes? If you're capable of doing higher-value work then isn't it a "waste" for you to be doing lower-value work?

This assumes that everyone can do the higher-value work per their standards, right? US is probably the most educated country in the world, while in the meantime we still have millions adults[1] who don't have college degree. We still have millions of kids who struggle with basic algebra. And per my interaction with kids and college students in the past many years, I have to conclude that not everyone can or like to take on "high-end" jobs. In any class except those magnetic schools, you can see the bottom 20% or more students are hopeless in learning STEM or sophisticated writing. However, they may get decent jobs if there are other demand in the market.

[1]Between 2011 and 2021, the percentage of people age 25 and older who had completed a bachelor's degree or higher increased by 7.5 percentage points from 30.4% to 37.9%. https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2022/educatio....

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#339

Post by pyuser583 »

puranjay wrote: post #107
next_xibalba wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How many of his predictions have failed? How many are timebound and falsifiable? I am not specifically familiar with Zehain, but I am very well acquainted with figures who generate many predictions, have a small number become true, and then get treated as oracles for years before the truth is exposed: predicting the future in massive, chaotic systems is nearly impossible.

His core arguments focus on geography and demographics, both of which are “hard” problems. Declining populations simply cannot maintain the “grow at all costs” current economic order. Even an advanced country like Japan with plenty of automation and high productivity rates hasn’t see any growth in two decades since its population itself doesn’t grow anymore. Even if you don’t go by his more alarmist arguments, you ha…

Japan hasn’t seen any economic growth since the early 2000s? Please give me a source … I find that hard to believe.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#340

Post by Animats »

dirtyid wrote: post #275
downrightmike wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But is it any good? That's the question. I don't doubt that they'll try something in the next 10 years, because now is the largest force they'll ever be able to muster. One child policy screwed them.

> largest force they'll ever be able to muster PLA is still massively modernizing and expanding with barely ~2% of GDP. It doesn't take that many bodies to man modern military, even worst case combination of South Korea tier TFR (<1) and cold war ear spending (6%+) enables PRC to field a military multiple times larger than current size. This is without considering unmanned autonomous platforms that PRC defense indust…

Expecting China to run out of people is a strange idea. In the last few decades, the PLA has shrunk, but has become much better equipped.

The US military has a much worse manpower problem. 71% of US military age youth are ineligible for the US military - too fat, too dumb, or too criminal.[1]

[1] https://www.cdc.gov/physicalactivity/downloads/unfit-to-serv...

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