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The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

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Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#351

Post by D_Alex »

japhib wrote: post #335
D_Alex wrote: post #297

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I only read the linked article, not the books. I think that the thesis (as professed by the article) that the "deglobalization" is largely due to the decline of the US Navy is pretty silly. "Decline in the standard of US foreign policy and diplomacy" - in itself an ill-judged reaction to the rise of China's economic power and influence - is much closer to the mark. Of course the Covid pandemic didn't help either.

> I think that the thesis (as professed by the article) that the "deglobalization" is largely due to the decline of the US Navy is pretty silly Why?

This is Australian, but probably relevant: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MTCqXlDjx18

Seriously - what does the US Navy have to do with Trump's "trade war" with China? With Russia-Ukraine conflict? With US balance of trade that is $7 trillion out of kilter? And with US sanctions, which not only restrict international trade directly, but also will lead the countries holding some of that $7 trillion to reassess the risks of selling to the US?

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#352

Post by Animats »

wilsonnb3 wrote: post #227
Animats wrote: post #131

China's Navy is now bigger than the US Navy. Few have noticed. China's third aircraft carrier, the Fujian, was launched last week. This is the lead ship of a new carrier class. Carrier #4 is said to be under construction at Dalian. (There's so much shipbuilding in China that it's hard to tell if a new hull is a warship or just another giant container ship.) These are not nuclear powered. That's expected with the next…

> China's Navy is now bigger than the US Navy. Few have noticed. Measured in amount of ships/boats, yes. So is North Korea's navy, though. It is not a very helpful way to compare naval power between countries.

True. The PLAN is working towards being more of a blue-water navy, but they are not there yet.

Here's a list of shipyards in China.[1] It helps building a large number of commercial ships. China's third carrier was built in a shipyard that also builds commercial ships. The fourth carrier is reportedly being constructed in a commercial shipyard in Dalian.

The US only has two shipyards left capable of building large surface naval vessels - Bath Iron Works and Newport News Shipbuilding. Both are very old companies, from the 19th century. There's Ingalls in Mississippi for medium-sized vessels, and Electric Boat in Connecticut for submarines. There are still four US naval shipyards run by the Navy, but they just do repairs now.

[1] https://www.trusteddocks.com/catalog/country/47-china

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#353

Post by mlindner »

no_wizard wrote: post #240
sbierwagen wrote: post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>tend to argue from policy and politics backwards and then the facts become inconvenient There's the famous UN population projections where they show Europe and Asia declining for a while, then leveling out around 2050. Why? Well, they published their reasoning: https://population.un.org/wpp/Publications/Files/WPP2019_Hig... >Evidence from surveys of childbearing preferences indicate that even in populations with low…

I agree this hasn't yet seem to bear itself out, though I think statistically we have until 2029 or so before you can "call it" as absolutely 100% incorrect (that, using very armchair back of the math sort of logic here, admittedly, would allot for a first wave of sorts meeting the timeline, anything later and perhaps it should really cause some panic) With that said, and this is really the point, I think we failed a…

Richer people have less children. People are not not having children for financial reasons.

And even if what you said was true, Europe who has a lot more social protections for such things, has an even lower birth rate than the US. So that's clearly not relevant.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#354

Post by togril »

ProjectArcturis wrote: post #260
more_corn wrote: post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except that from January to March this year pundits swore up and down that Russia wouldn’t launch a full invasion of Ukraine. When it happened a lot of people were surprised. You could have made a killing in the stock market if you’d realized that Russia would certainly invade, and they probably had a deadline in order to maximize the summer fighting season. It seemed obvious to me, but not so obvious that I position…

Pundits? Maybe some did. There are lots of pundits and I'm sure many of them get a lot wrong and some get things right by pure chance. On the other hand, US intelligence was shouting loud and clear in mid-February that an invasion was immanent. In any case, making a claim in October 2014 that at some point Russia would continue its invasion of Ukraine is not a particularly impressive feat.

It is impressive, as entire nations have literally gambled their (energy) security against this to happen.

This is like saying it wasn't impressive to predict and time the GFC.

Yeah sure, in retrospect it looks all totally obvious and simple.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#355

Post by lostcolony »

majormajor wrote: post #161
lostcolony wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"People" might, but the post you're replying to didn't. All they said was "Declining populations simply cannot maintain the “grow at all costs” current economic order" which implies a change is necessary, not whether that change is good/bad/whatever.

But Japan experienced that change already and it wasn't apocalyptic by any means. Puranjay's claim here is almost literally "change will happen, and it will bring grief." So change happening without much grief runs right against that. Meanwhile, the US has had any number of highly-adversarial, occasionally-violent political fights in the last decade while still in that "grow the top line" mindset. You could make a pl…

>> Puranjay's claim here is almost literally "change will happen, and it will bring grief."

The only place he mentions grief (rather than "demographic change requires economic change") is at the very end, with "And any large scale shift in economic models comes with some grief, at the very least." Nowhere else.

Some grief. As a footnote. That's hardly quantified, and itself could be covered simply by the fact change is hard. Japan was forced into changing, and...it went fine. The US hasn't yet. It'll require adjustment, which will probably bring some unpleasantness as we all adapt. That isn't alarmist, which was my point.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#356

Post by causality0 »

Longlius wrote: post #313
causality0 wrote: post #294

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What bothers me is the sheer mass of factually incorrect statements Zeihan makes that would be trivial to check if he bothered. Things like "China only makes the low-end computer chips, anything that's going into a cellphone or laptop is made in the USA"

He's not incorrect on that point. Huawei sources its SoCs from Taiwanese and American fabs, which is why the trade war has absolutely gutted their bottom line. HiSilicon licenses chip designs, adds their specific stuff on top of them, and has the chips fabbed by TSMC.

He's incorrect in that he thinks the destruction of the Taiwanese semiconductor industry during an invasion by the mainland would be a minor inconvenience for the US but an insurmountable obstacle for China.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#357

Post by redmen »

boomchinolo78 wrote: post #221
more_corn wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

An economy without growth will fall apart. Yuval Noah Harari said it very well. Lenders only lend because there’s faith that $1 loaned today becomes more than $1 paid back tomorrow. Without growth there’s no incentive to lend. Without lending we’re looking at medieval level economies. It’s not the only thing we care about, but it’s a necessity. That being said growth can come in all shapes and sizes. Elevating everyo…

Yuval Noah Harari is the worst offender of the reductionist mindset. I can't even begin to understand how the WEF even listens to that uppity book peddler.

Everybody knows the best way to make a fortune is to get into book sales.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#358

Post by DrSiemer »

andi999 wrote: post #314
colinmhayes wrote: post #244

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I predicted the invasion of Ukraine in 2014 after no one gave a shit about the Crimean invasion. Plenty of other people did too, it wasn't even a difficult prediction to make, Putin has been very clear about his Ukrainian ambition for a long time. Remember Trump's first impeachment? It was literally about withholding military aid to Ukraine, all of the state department officials were bewildered because they knew abou…

If it was so clear, then tell me, why did putin wait for so long.

Because Russia was stocking up on foreign valuta for exactly the current scenario.

Close advisors to Zelensky have been aware of the incoming invasion since at least 2017. But they could not act, because sounding the alarm would cause mass evacuations. This would have clogged their infrastructure, which would prevent their army from being able to act quickly and basically lose them the war before it had even begun.

It is not a very strong example of a prediction. At most it shows he is well informed.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#359

Post by avrionov »

quickthrower2 wrote: post #300
xt00 wrote: post #181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One major differentiator between the US and China is that China traditionally / currently is not considered a good destination for foreigners / immigrants. (even Chinese people inside China from lower tier cities / countryside struggle to gain residency in top tier cities or get good jobs / benefits). Whereas the US, for all of its flailing around politically, is perceived by many people in many countries as a good p…

I don’t think the US is easy to emigrate to for extended periods of time. I am put off by being tied to one employer in an at-will employment culture and needing that job to stay resident. Wikipedia says 188,100 new and initial H-1B visas were issued in 2019. So not a lot.

USA also has the Green Card Lottery which provides 50k visas per year.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#360

Post by ch4s3 »

1vuio0pswjnm7 wrote: post #239
ch4s3 wrote: post #192

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the hey-day of manufacturing things like shoes and clothing in the US, these things weren't considered "good" jobs. You can easily find numerous articles in national magazines from the period decrying them as dangerous, monotonous, and otherwise awful. You can still buy a $600 pair of boots or derbys from Alden of New England (I have a pair) or Viberg. But these are niche products within a niche. If you're talking…

Viberg is, or at least it used to be, Canadian.

I meant it as a point of reference, I guess I should have said White’s, but it seemed too niche.
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