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The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

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Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#241

Post by lenkite »

DennisP wrote: post #117
spaceman_2020 wrote: post #75

I’ve been following Zeihan since his first book. I’m yet to find a credible counter argument to his theses. And he’s being proven right at an alarming pace this year. So far this year we’ve had: - A land war in Europe - Food insecurity in the developing world - Breakdown of supply chains and shipping routes - Nation states resorting to seizing each other’s ships (see Greece-Iran issue recently). Everything that he ha…

I just read all Zeihan's books. The only counterargument I can think of is that maybe with our interdependent world, sanctions have gotten effective enough to substitute for US military power to some extent. Zeihan himself has said China has to be reevaluating the idea of an attack on Taiwan, after seeing the sanctions and boycotts against Russia. Sanctions haven't stopped Russia but Russia is a food and fuel exporte…

Well..the Biden administration is slowly removing sanctions from Venezuala after belatedly realising that sanctioning Iran, Venezuala and Russia caused a global energy crisis. And making a diplomacy visit to the Saudis to beg them to pump more oil. Despite a harsh condemnation of the Prince just last year where he said he would never speak to him again.

Sanctions are of questionable effectiveness and tend to harm other nations more than the nation that is the target of the sanctions.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#242

Post by ianleeclark »

taylodl wrote: post #203
hintymad wrote: post #167

This is probably an unpopular opinion: it pains me to see the manufacturing industry decline in the US. I don't really mind paying $300 for a pair of shoes. Yes, it will be expensive, but then I'll just buy fewer pairs. In return, more people get decent jobs, or so I hope. And no, I'm not talking about just the so-called "low-end" manufacturing, but also the high end. Indeed, how can we even grow "high-end" talent if…

It's only unpopular because it flies in the face of economics. You say you're fine paying $300 for a pair of shoes - but are you okay with your livelihood being making shoes? If you're capable of doing higher-value work then isn't it a "waste" for you to be doing lower-value work? The U.S. has invested trillions of dollars building an infrastructure that has led its citizens to being some of the best-educated and mos…

> The U.S. has invested trillions of dollars building an infrastructure that has led its citizens to being some of the best-educated and most-productive in the world.

Remember what you said: some of the population is capable of doing such things, but a relatively large portion of the population are doing gig work. The distinction isn't "why take the highly skilled segment of the workforce and retrain them," but instead "why not take the 'low-skilled' portion and upskill them." Ultimately we know the answer, but your framing was off.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#243

Post by [deleted] »

codefreeordie wrote: post #168
ajuc wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's before WW2 maybe. I'm talking about 80s vs now.

Oh, for sure, having children stopped being net-economically-positive long ago -- though the degree to which it is net-economically-negative seems like it has kept increasing, as our expectations of an acceptable childhood keep growing.

[deleted]

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#244

Post by colinmhayes »

MR4D wrote: post #194
kapp_in_life wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also some of these seem like almost vacuous statements. Predicting food insecurity(or any other type of insecurity) in the developing world is not a groundbreaking prediction.

Here’s one for you: He predicted the invasion of Ukraine back in this video from 2017 (actually earlier, but this was the easiest source for me to cite): https://youtu.be/rkuhWA9GdCo The whole video is pretty short, but he mentions Ukraine about 2 1/2 minutes in.

I predicted the invasion of Ukraine in 2014 after no one gave a shit about the Crimean invasion. Plenty of other people did too, it wasn't even a difficult prediction to make, Putin has been very clear about his Ukrainian ambition for a long time. Remember Trump's first impeachment? It was literally about withholding military aid to Ukraine, all of the state department officials were bewildered because they knew about the impending invasion.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#245

Post by 542458 »

manuelabeledo wrote: post #202
hintymad wrote: post #167

This is probably an unpopular opinion: it pains me to see the manufacturing industry decline in the US. I don't really mind paying $300 for a pair of shoes. Yes, it will be expensive, but then I'll just buy fewer pairs. In return, more people get decent jobs, or so I hope. And no, I'm not talking about just the so-called "low-end" manufacturing, but also the high end. Indeed, how can we even grow "high-end" talent if…

> I don't really mind paying $300 for a pair of shoes. Yes, it will be expensive, but then I'll just buy fewer pairs. In return, more people get decent jobs, or so I hope. I suspect that this would just help keep the same returns for the shareholders and executives. Shoes may be more expensive, but not $200 more expensive (if we take that on average they cost $100 now) if made in the US. Even for a single worker spen…

Shoes that retail for $120-$150 don’t cost $100 to make. Normal shoes cost like $20 to make. The rest of the costs are transportation, warehousing, marketing, etc. Also remember that retail takes a 25-35% cut. I would expect a shoe that costs $200 to make to retail for at least $400.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#246

Post by topher515 »

Barrera wrote: post #26

Haven't read the book, but for those who don't know who Zeihan is, his work follows two threads of post-WWII history: 1. Deglobalization; and 2. Depopulation The article focuses mostly on deglobalization, but depopulation is in the horse pulling the cart. Many are familiar with the deglobalization idea from the last US presidential administration. The current administration kept those tariffs, and abided by the previ…

I just want to take some issue with your characterization of "with mathematical certainty".

You're completely right that given fertility rates are under replacement rate—from memory: 2.1 children per woman—populations will decrease with mathematical certainty. But there is no universal law that developed countries must remain below replacement fertility levels; that's just what has always happened so far—given the cultures and policies which exist today.

It's not completely absurd to imagine scenarios like:

- a rich society getting serious about the fertility problem and putting it's money where it's mouth is: free childcare, free fertility clinics, generous subsidies for having a third kid, etc

- a culture shift amongst the patriotic, or the religious, or whatever subgroup, to believe it's their responsibility to have more children.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#247

Post by dstroot »

nicodjimenez wrote: post #180
hintymad wrote: post #167

This is probably an unpopular opinion: it pains me to see the manufacturing industry decline in the US. I don't really mind paying $300 for a pair of shoes. Yes, it will be expensive, but then I'll just buy fewer pairs. In return, more people get decent jobs, or so I hope. And no, I'm not talking about just the so-called "low-end" manufacturing, but also the high end. Indeed, how can we even grow "high-end" talent if…

If the opinion you share is unpopular, it's because it's correct, and the truth is the enemy of the oligarchs that are scamming citizens in the US and the West in general. US is now a scam that exports inflation and crap 2nd rate weaponry. Scam economy, scam military industrial complex, scam military, scam president, scam everything. If you have a feeling the US is in decline, it's because it is. The situation is muc…

> … emigrate if they can.

Where are you recommending they go?

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#248

Post by colinmhayes »

more_corn wrote: post #184
ProjectArcturis wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've never heard of Zeihan. The article touts his prowess of predicting a Russian invasion of Ukraine in his book published in late 2014. Well, Russia had just seized Crimea and eastern Donbass in February of 2014, so this doesn't strike me as a particularly prescient call.

Except that from January to March this year pundits swore up and down that Russia wouldn’t launch a full invasion of Ukraine. When it happened a lot of people were surprised. You could have made a killing in the stock market if you’d realized that Russia would certainly invade, and they probably had a deadline in order to maximize the summer fighting season. It seemed obvious to me, but not so obvious that I position…

> When it happened a lot of people were surprised.

Meanwhile the US intelligence service had been claiming since summer that an invasion was likely. Trump's impeachment was over withholding military aid that the state department deemed crucial. The career foreign service workers saw this coming.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#249

Post by Nasrudith »

derriz wrote: post #229
hintymad wrote: post #167

This is probably an unpopular opinion: it pains me to see the manufacturing industry decline in the US. I don't really mind paying $300 for a pair of shoes. Yes, it will be expensive, but then I'll just buy fewer pairs. In return, more people get decent jobs, or so I hope. And no, I'm not talking about just the so-called "low-end" manufacturing, but also the high end. Indeed, how can we even grow "high-end" talent if…

US manufacturing output has not actually declined though - it has never been higher and has increased over 40% in the last 2 decades[1]. The perception of US manufacturing decline is widespread. My guess is that this perception is due to a number of factors. Other sectors of the US economy have grown more, so manufacturing now represents a smaller share. And also as productivity increases, fewer people are required t…

People don't see industies where they don't work. Rising specialization and automation means that fewer are involver in industry. People are myopic and judge facts by feelings instead of using them as a proper guide of priorities.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#250

Post by burntoutfire »

taylodl wrote: post #203
hintymad wrote: post #167

This is probably an unpopular opinion: it pains me to see the manufacturing industry decline in the US. I don't really mind paying $300 for a pair of shoes. Yes, it will be expensive, but then I'll just buy fewer pairs. In return, more people get decent jobs, or so I hope. And no, I'm not talking about just the so-called "low-end" manufacturing, but also the high end. Indeed, how can we even grow "high-end" talent if…

It's only unpopular because it flies in the face of economics. You say you're fine paying $300 for a pair of shoes - but are you okay with your livelihood being making shoes? If you're capable of doing higher-value work then isn't it a "waste" for you to be doing lower-value work? The U.S. has invested trillions of dollars building an infrastructure that has led its citizens to being some of the best-educated and mos…

> Moreover the late 19th and the first half of the 20th centuries taught us that focusing on the nation-state leads to widespread warfare. Better to have those nation-states in economic cooperation that leads to peace than economic competition that leads to war.

I think it has taught us the opposite? Pre WWI, the world was already very integrated and globalized, to the point that many pundits said that a large war is impossible, because it would hurt businesses everywhere too much. And yet it happened.

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