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Chasing utopian energy: How I wasted 20 years of my life

briangitt.com

221–230 of 295 posts

Re: Chasing utopian energy: How I wasted 20 years of my life

#221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>The cost per kWh of solar and wind is a third of natural gas and nuclear. It's not even close. So what? Or put another way, if its so cheap, why is Germany building natural gas pipelines to ship Russian gas for decades to come? What do they (and every other country) know that you don't? The reality is you're not comparing apples to apples. Natural gas can serve as base load and power a modern economy. Solar/wind can…

> if its so cheap, why is Germany building natural gas pipelines to ship Russian gas for decades to come? Because Gerhard Schröder, the former chancellor who approved NS1 in his last days, liked Russia, which earned him nice board seats on Russian energy companies. And because Angela Merkel had her constituency in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, the landfall site of the pipelines. And LNG was always associated with fracking…

>Because Gerhard Schröder, the former chancellor who approved NS1 in his last days, liked Russia, which earned him nice board seats on Russian ene

Yeah - it's always corrupt politicians and big oil, big gas, big whatever. Alternatively, maybe it means that wind/solar cannot meet German energy needs.

And by the way, this isn't just Germany. It's every country that doesn't have access to hydro or nuclear.

Re: Chasing utopian energy: How I wasted 20 years of my life

#222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

20 year payback horizon for us in MD, USA. And that's still would only covering 20-40% of our annual electric usage. We have a fully electric house. It doesn't take more than a couple trees in the wrong place to make you a lousy candidate for solar.

Meanwhile a relatives system failed before 2 and is now a pile of panels leaning on the side of their house. No way these things are actually lasting 20 years. Or if they are, it's by dint of enough repair & maint to destroy the math even more. What does seem to be true though is that it's getting better/closer. As the panels get both more efficient and cheaper, it becomes less of a waste of motion.

Like anything else you can buy quality components and install them correctly or you can buy poor quality components and install them poorly. If a solar system fails after 2 years there were defects in materials or worksmanship. A solar setup is a pretty robust thing when done right.

Re: Chasing utopian energy: How I wasted 20 years of my life

#223
post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We’ve been BEGGING for more nuclear power for decades. The world still uses coal for 40% of electricity and now Europe is firing up more coal plants because of the war in Ukraine. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/21/ukraine-war-europe-turns-to-... Would it be safe to assume we lost at least a decade of time waiting for the windmills, batteries, etc? We could be talking about carbon neutral by 2060 instead of 2050.

> We’ve been BEGGING for more nuclear power for decades. Yes, it really made sense for De Gaulle to launch the French civil nuclear program in 1969 https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Histoire_du_programme_nucl%C3%... But we're in 2022 now, and we can easily and cheaply ramp up renewables greatly before we have a storage issue. And by the time we hit such limits, we'll have many more long term storage options. I'm not agai…

>But we're in 2022 now, and we can easily and cheaply ramp up renewables greatly before we have a storage issue.

Really? 'Easily' and 'cheaply'? So even with massive cultural pressure to move to renewables, somehow we don't want to move to a cheaper energy source? You sure about that?

What if ... we can't actually replace fossil fuels with wind/solar.

Re: Chasing utopian energy: How I wasted 20 years of my life

#224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>The cost per kWh of solar and wind is a third of natural gas and nuclear. It's not even close. So what? Or put another way, if its so cheap, why is Germany building natural gas pipelines to ship Russian gas for decades to come? What do they (and every other country) know that you don't? The reality is you're not comparing apples to apples. Natural gas can serve as base load and power a modern economy. Solar/wind can…

> why is Germany building natural gas pipelines to ship Russian gas for decades to come? German here. Let me tell you that a lot of us have been asking the same question. :) Your argument seems to be that "they built these pipelines so that must have been a rational decision" but looking at the track record of the conservatives (Merkel's party, "in charge" for 32 out of the last 39 years), their donors, and the just…

The point is, it isn't just Germany. There is no country on Earth that actually replaced fossil fuels with wind/solar. The point with Germany is that you guys invested billions into this, and you still are building pipelines for natural gas and buying coal-derived power from your neighbors.

Re: Chasing utopian energy: How I wasted 20 years of my life

#225
post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Absolutely. Fission on the other hand, proven and ready to go.

It's a shame it's an economic loser of a technology, even after generations of government pump priming.

But it can do something that wind/solar can't ... it can actually power a modern economy. So fission is a loser, what does that make wind/solar?

Re: Chasing utopian energy: How I wasted 20 years of my life

#226
post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

His credentials seem phenomenal: I went to work in construction to build energy-efficient homes, and I started a company that built composting systems for cities and businesses. I became executive director of an organization that championed green building policies and became CEO of a consulting firm that commercialized clean energy technologies and ran energy-efficiency programs. I then founded a software startup to…

Why do you trust him about his credentials? Who is paying him now? He has no articles older than 2020 on his website, and the same is true of his podcasts. Where are his thoughts prior to that?

> Where are his thoughts prior to that?

They aren't hard to find. Looks like he got into YCombinator in 2016. See https://www.ycombinator.com/blog/utilityscore/

Re: Chasing utopian energy: How I wasted 20 years of my life

#227

Not only is the blog post black and white, the comments here are similar. We have not leveraged yet the potential solar and wind have. They are easy to build easy to understand, make you self sufficient and are now the cheapest option from all. In parallel there are plenty of countries who have lots of space and uran and could do more nuclear (ignoring the storage issue). And geothermal is a good option in plenty of…

Nonsense. Uranium is plentiful in Earth's crust. There's enough to last for the foreseeable future. Obviously it's not infinite, but that's not the same as "there's not enough of it".

It's not nonsense.

It's real predictions and a real risk:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_uranium

And the idea is that if we would create a ton more reactors that we still would need to solve real issues with uran.

And besides this issue, look at who owns uran and who consumes it.

There should be a huge motivation for the USA to start harvesting much more energy from the sun alone for u depends reasons alone.

Re: Chasing utopian energy: How I wasted 20 years of my life

#228
post #201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am not convinced of the spending priority today, but I am convinced that figuring out clean energy is the most important goal to achieve. I am mostly worried that a fossil-fueled extinction beats science to the storage solution of your dreams. Why risk that when nuclear is available?

Here's a question for the group: Regardless of whether you advocate for green energy or not, do you think that it's a wise strategy to create an artificial scarcity of fossil fuels to force a transition to green energy? After decades of green energy adoption, the world is still (conservatively) 84% reliant on fossil fuels. Without them, many people would freeze and/or starve, and whole economies would collapse.

I think we should be focusing on creating abundance of clean fuels. I do think it's worthwhile to tax fossil fuels to make people less likely to use them. Probably with dramatic taxes. But really there's no such thing as "natural scarcity" or "natural abundance" these things are all based on our choices. 30 years ago we could have created an abundance of nuclear power and we would be better off. Today it seems like creating abundance of other things is a superior option. We knew that persisting in leaving fossil fuels as the abundant option was a mistake but we did it anyway and continue to do it.

Re: Chasing utopian energy: How I wasted 20 years of my life

#229
post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Nuclear is way too expensive, specially if you account for risks of disasters (no insurance company will insure them, so the risk is on the population). This is CATO propaganda. All power generation is subsidized by our incredibly relaxed attitude towards externalities in general. Of the reliable sources of energy, nuclear is safest and the least subsidized.

> Of the reliable sources of energy, nuclear is safest and the least subsidized. How do you evaluate this? Do you have a summary of estimated subsidies per MWh for different generators? My understanding is the same as the comment you are responding to, that nuclear subsidies are significant, ~6-10USD/MWh on insurance alone. I would be happy to be wrong on this. On a good day we pay ~EUR25/MWh for nuke electricity in…

First, I want to make it clear that my claims are about relative subsidy, rather than absolute subsidy.

Second, the nuclear insurance subsidy is not really a subsidy, since the taxpayer is only on the hook in the case of an accident, which is not only extraordinarily unlikely, but also mitigated many times over. The calculation of the implicit subsidy to nuclear power comes from highly motivated speculative accounting by CATO, whom you should generally think of as playing the role of a law firm working for oil and gas and against alternative forms of energy production. There are a range of values which could be assigned to the "implicit subsidy of nuclear insurance", and the opposition lawyer has obviously chosen the absolute highest end of that range.

It is difficult enough to calculate the probability of a nuclear reactor meltdown, but we have observational evidence that it is at least many dozens of times less likely than say, a hurricane, and each of those is generally more costly than even the worst nuclear disaster in history. The damage wrought by the tsunami at fukushima, for instance, was many times greater than the damage wrought by the meltdown at fukushima.

There is a private component to nuclear insurance, as well, paid by the operators, which totals, across all nuclear plants, approximately 10 times the total damages incurred by the three mile island incident every year. It is extremely unlikely that a nuclear accident will ever exceed these damages.

This is in stark contrast to other historical insurance requirements. As a case study, I recommend learning about the early history of oil spills starting with the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SS_Torrey_Canyon and the subsequent founding of TOVALOP in 1968. Up until that point, oil transport insurance was implicitly subsidized by the nature of a limited liability corporation. Note that this was not an artefact of the times, since insurance requirements for the nuclear industry were implemented by congress a decade earlier, in 1957.

On the other hand, we subsidize coal and natural gas implicitly by not charging them for the use of their exhaust channels and also not structurally supporting torts for worse health outcomes with no easily identified proximate cause. For a concrete example, I think we have a pretty good idea of the number of additional hurricanes per year we can expect as a result of carbon dioxide emissions, but we do not require oil and gas to pay for marginal additional hurricane insurance, despite that doing demonstrably more damage than even very bad nuclear meltdowns. The unsuitability of tort as an avenue of collecting externalities is an enormous implicit subsidy for the fossil fuel industry.

Re: Chasing utopian energy: How I wasted 20 years of my life

#230
post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a shame it's an economic loser of a technology, even after generations of government pump priming.

But it can do something that wind/solar can't ... it can actually power a modern economy. So fission is a loser, what does that make wind/solar?

Wind/solar can power a modern economy, and probably more cheaply than nuclear can.
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