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Chasing utopian energy: How I wasted 20 years of my life

briangitt.com

201–210 of 295 posts

Re: Chasing utopian energy: How I wasted 20 years of my life

#201
post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree with your criticisms and support of the parent, but the thesis also included a chunk of "here is why I switched from a purely clean energy perspective to one that tolerates a bunch more nuclear." I have in the past year undergone a similar shift, so perhaps I felt more tolerant of some of the article's slickness. A few centuries of "financially expensive" nuclear energy feels like it could provide a longer ru…

It's really strange for me to hear people saying that. I was pro-nuclear a decade ago and thought solar/wind were pipe dreams. The cost situation is now so much in favor of solar/wind now that I no longer really see the point in nuclear. We should be subsidizing scaling up of storage technologies, not nuclear plants. If the cost of storage gets cut in half in the next 10 years, we won't need subsidies, nuclear plants…

I am not convinced of the spending priority today, but I am convinced that figuring out clean energy is the most important goal to achieve.

I am mostly worried that a fossil-fueled extinction beats science to the storage solution of your dreams. Why risk that when nuclear is available?

Re: Chasing utopian energy: How I wasted 20 years of my life

#202
post #26

Clever writing can let you argue for any viewpoint. That doesn’t make it true. >I used to think solar and wind power were the best ways to reduce CO2 emissions. But the biggest reduction in CO2 emissionsduring the past 15 years (over 60%) has come from switching from coal to natural gas. Upgrading coal to gas is a great intermediate step. However, it’s not a long term solution because natural gas reserves are limited…

> Nuclear is the safest way to generate electricity Until there is an accident, then it's literally the worst.

Nuclear is still the safest, even including Chernobyl and Fukishima. An equivalent number of people die from solar and wind, independently.

https://ourworldindata.org/safest-sources-of-energy

This is a huge problem for humanity to solve. We're more afraid of acute horrors that are statistically insignificant than we are of diffuse, but statistically horrifying dangers.

Re: Chasing utopian energy: How I wasted 20 years of my life

#203
post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Long term nuclear storage is one problem. Who pays for the decommissioning is another one. In many cases it turns out to be the taxpayer.

This is not true. Every power plant that produces waste must pay money into the waste repository fund totaling nearly $50B - which is probably overkill for building a long term facility by a factor of 5 or more.

Overkill?

Maybe. Maybe not.

https://www.nsenergybusiness.com/news/uk-nuclear-power-decom...

Re: Chasing utopian energy: How I wasted 20 years of my life

#204
post #192

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The waste produced by a renewable energy system will be small (and of the same kind) compared to the waste produced by industrial society as a whole. If the renewable energy system isn't sustainable because of waste, then neither will be that industrial society, even if it were nuclear powered. To be fair, waste isn't really the issue with nuclear power either.

> waste isn't really the issue with nuclear power either. So what is? Because you're working overtime here against it without giving any reasons whatsoever.

> So what is?

Cost. It's the reason few nuclear plants are being built. No other reason is needed.

Re: Chasing utopian energy: How I wasted 20 years of my life

#205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Rooftop solar in Seattle pays for itself in 7-9 years Can you show me the arithmetic for that? I understand rooftop solar to cost $20,000 - $25,000. Is your non-solar electric bill over 7-9 years really more expensive than that? Seems impossible.

Victoria BC area here (practically next door), it wouldn't work for us. My annual hydro bill was $2400 in 2018 with baseboard heating, and $2050 for 16,500kWh in 2021 after we put in a heat pump. 3 bedroom detached. A recent article suggested a typical 4 kW system around here would cost $10k for 3261 kWh a year, or about $405 in credit at a blended rate. Another suggests an 11 kW system at $27,500, which could maybe…

20 year payback horizon for us in MD, USA. And that's still would only covering 20-40% of our annual electric usage. We have a fully electric house.

It doesn't take more than a couple trees in the wrong place to make you a lousy candidate for solar.

Re: Chasing utopian energy: How I wasted 20 years of my life

#206
post #163
post #26

Clever writing can let you argue for any viewpoint. That doesn’t make it true. >I used to think solar and wind power were the best ways to reduce CO2 emissions. But the biggest reduction in CO2 emissionsduring the past 15 years (over 60%) has come from switching from coal to natural gas. Upgrading coal to gas is a great intermediate step. However, it’s not a long term solution because natural gas reserves are limited…

His credentials seem phenomenal: I went to work in construction to build energy-efficient homes, and I started a company that built composting systems for cities and businesses. I became executive director of an organization that championed green building policies and became CEO of a consulting firm that commercialized clean energy technologies and ran energy-efficiency programs. I then founded a software startup to…

I think it seems like yet another environmentalist that’s realized they were wrong on nukes and is now overcorrecting.

This is a “yes, and”, not an “or”. Yes we should build nukes and we should continue the massive ongoing deployment of renewables.

Recall the IEA estimates at current rates of consumption, we will be out of nuclear fuel in 200 years. Replacing fossil plants with nukes would mean accelerating that consumption rate such that we will be out of fuel in 25 years or so. Yes, there are non-commercial and experimental systems to run on other fuels and extract uranium from other places, but we should not bet the planet on them panning out. We should invest in all available options.

Re: Chasing utopian energy: How I wasted 20 years of my life

#207
post #26

Clever writing can let you argue for any viewpoint. That doesn’t make it true. >I used to think solar and wind power were the best ways to reduce CO2 emissions. But the biggest reduction in CO2 emissionsduring the past 15 years (over 60%) has come from switching from coal to natural gas. Upgrading coal to gas is a great intermediate step. However, it’s not a long term solution because natural gas reserves are limited…

But solar and wind are no where near sustainable, or efficient. They are extremely fragile and have serious detrimental effects on their local environment. Nuclear is the best option and gas is a massive improvement. The whole point of this article is that we are chasing a utopian ideal instead of actually fixing the problems. Once again, perfect is being the enemy of improvement.

The current state of Frances nuclear fleet would disagree with your position.

Re: Chasing utopian energy: How I wasted 20 years of my life

#208
post #26

Clever writing can let you argue for any viewpoint. That doesn’t make it true. >I used to think solar and wind power were the best ways to reduce CO2 emissions. But the biggest reduction in CO2 emissionsduring the past 15 years (over 60%) has come from switching from coal to natural gas. Upgrading coal to gas is a great intermediate step. However, it’s not a long term solution because natural gas reserves are limited…

> Nuclear is the safest way to generate electricity Until there is an accident, then it's literally the worst.

Hydroelectric is the worst for catastrophic failure. See https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1975_Banqiao_Dam_failure

Nuclear reactors are extremely safe by comparison.

Re: Chasing utopian energy: How I wasted 20 years of my life

#209
post #42

Finally a rational and spot-on discussion about energy. Great article! Especially a rational take on the nuclear boogyman - if you care at all about CO2 emissions then nuclear should be your highest priority! Instead of burying "nuclear waste" we should be burning it in modern reactors.

How many production plants have been deployed with that technology? How long have they been deployed and what is their ROI?

We know these answers for solar and wind because they've been around for years. Last I heard these new nuclear reactors were just expensive prototypes. I'm not confident that these power plants have the technological readiness to scale up to cover our energy needs in the time we have left.

Now, solar and wind have the energy storage problem that has similarly immature solutions. The difference there is that building wind and solar plants is something that can be done (at scale) today to reduce our carbon footprint and buy time. These investments can be further leveraged as storage comes online to wean us off fossil fuels.

I understand that nuclear is, at least theoretically, a simpler solution. It just isn't yet practical both due to technological immaturity and due to societal resistance to anything with "nuclear" or "atomic" in the name.

Re: Chasing utopian energy: How I wasted 20 years of my life

#210

The cost per kWh of solar and wind is a third of natural gas and nuclear. It's not even close. Filling the gaps left by intermittent production with storage is rapidly decreasing in costs, and will soon be low enough that Solar/Wind/Storage will outcompete Natural Gas or nuclear 95% of the time. There is probably a small role for other sources in filling capacity gaps during uncommon weather events (i.e. natural gas…

So given that it's so cheap you've converted your home to be 100% solar with battery storage and went off grid, right?

Probably not. As you'd like to have power for those dark winter days where you don't see the sun for weeks on end and any viable battery storage will only last a day or two.

Dont get me wrong, I love solar, I'm building a house with it. But outside of select niches there's no viable storage for solar or wind that deals with seasonal intermittency.

Wind even has major long term intermittency issues. This just happened in Europe: https://theconversation.com/what-europes-exceptionally-low-w...

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