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The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

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Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#111

Post by r721 »

prometheus76 wrote: post #4
nostrademons wrote: post #2

Interesting to combine this line of thinking with the transition from nation-states to market-states: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1744057060106386... The power vacuum that's arisen from populism & isolationism is about to create a gigantic untapped market for firms that provide the services of a state - defense, dispute resolution, and currency - for a fee, to gigantic multinational corporations. At t…

That's all government has ever been and will always be: a protection racket.

But in a "no-government world" protection racket will still exist, just without any restrictions at all.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#112

Post by idiotsecant »

doliveira wrote: post #70
bombcar wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The modern Westphalian nation-state may just be an accident of history, eventually replaced by other mechanisms. Arguably it already has begun; tech monopolies are starting to provide "government-like" rules and enforcement.

Feudalism, here we go

It's worth noting that feudalism was stable for much longer than western style democracy has been so far.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#113

Post by Comevius »

nostrademons wrote: post #47
walleeee wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Might we see the nation-state get replaced by a web of competing mercenaries, each of which effectively serves as a protection racket for their customers? How do you envision the deprecation of the nuclear-armed nation state unfolding? The USSR had a unipolar world outside to stabilize and manage its disintegration. How is this accomplished in a multipolar context, with tensions inflamed by intensifying scarcity, c…

I'm not too worried about loose nukes or nuclear terrorism. Every major nuclear power other than China incorporates PALs [1] into the design of their nuclear weapons. Without a centrally generated & authenticated code, they don't function. The PAL is designed such that disabling it requires dismantling the nuclear weapon, which means you need to have the know-how to build nukes in the first place to re-enable it. Thi…

A PAL system can be just a combination lock. The people who gain access to the weapons themselves might also gain access to the codes and components necessary to arm them.

Who's to say there is a pot of gold at the end of those bloody few decades, with the climate crisis ramping up and natural resources dwindling. We certainly willed the prosperity after the Second World War into existence, by getting better at cannibalizing our natural resources, unsustainably. I would expect the cannibalization of what's left to continue, with pockets of the world doing better for a while, the rest doing worst. I would also expect these pockets to increasingly not be able to share the benefits of innovation with the rest of the world.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#114

Post by arcturus17 »

spaceman_2020 wrote: post #75

I’ve been following Zeihan since his first book. I’m yet to find a credible counter argument to his theses. And he’s being proven right at an alarming pace this year. So far this year we’ve had: - A land war in Europe - Food insecurity in the developing world - Breakdown of supply chains and shipping routes - Nation states resorting to seizing each other’s ships (see Greece-Iran issue recently). Everything that he ha…

You can’t argue with demographics, so you wouldn’t have argued with Malthus? He was completely wrong, at the very least in timescale.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#115

Post by [deleted] »

nostrademons wrote: post #47
walleeee wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Might we see the nation-state get replaced by a web of competing mercenaries, each of which effectively serves as a protection racket for their customers? How do you envision the deprecation of the nuclear-armed nation state unfolding? The USSR had a unipolar world outside to stabilize and manage its disintegration. How is this accomplished in a multipolar context, with tensions inflamed by intensifying scarcity, c…

I'm not too worried about loose nukes or nuclear terrorism. Every major nuclear power other than China incorporates PALs [1] into the design of their nuclear weapons. Without a centrally generated & authenticated code, they don't function. The PAL is designed such that disabling it requires dismantling the nuclear weapon, which means you need to have the know-how to build nukes in the first place to re-enable it. Thi…

[deleted]

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#116

Post by Quinner »

streb-lo wrote: post #19
prometheus76 wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's all government has ever been and will always be: a protection racket.

> a protection racket. A racket implies they're 'protecting' you from themselves. I don't think that's true. If protection isn't important to you, you can give Somalia a try.

Have you tried not paying taxes?

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#117

Post by DennisP »

spaceman_2020 wrote: post #75

I’ve been following Zeihan since his first book. I’m yet to find a credible counter argument to his theses. And he’s being proven right at an alarming pace this year. So far this year we’ve had: - A land war in Europe - Food insecurity in the developing world - Breakdown of supply chains and shipping routes - Nation states resorting to seizing each other’s ships (see Greece-Iran issue recently). Everything that he ha…

I just read all Zeihan's books. The only counterargument I can think of is that maybe with our interdependent world, sanctions have gotten effective enough to substitute for US military power to some extent. Zeihan himself has said China has to be reevaluating the idea of an attack on Taiwan, after seeing the sanctions and boycotts against Russia.

Sanctions haven't stopped Russia but Russia is a food and fuel exporter. Most countries are more reliant in imports for essentials. E.g. the Saudis need food imports, so maybe going to war with Iran isn't such a good idea for them, and that helps prevent the drastic Asian oil shortages Zeihan describes.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#118

Post by themadturk »

anotherman554 wrote: post #80
mooreds wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Might we see the nation-state get replaced by a web of competing mercenaries, each of which effectively serves as a protection racket for their customers? Snow Crash, by Neal Stephenson, explores this possible future. Great book.

I think Snowcrash is intentionally campy and satirical? At any rate I don't think what science fiction writers do is "exploring possible futures" so much as "telling lies for fun and profit" as one author entitled his fiction writing craft book.

Exploring possible futures is exactly what sf writers do as is telling lies for fun and profit. Predicting possible futures is not part of their job description, though sometimes it seems that way.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#119

Post by UnpossibleJim »

timmytokyo wrote: post #68
mooreds wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Might we see the nation-state get replaced by a web of competing mercenaries, each of which effectively serves as a protection racket for their customers? Snow Crash, by Neal Stephenson, explores this possible future. Great book.

The takeover of government functions by multinational corporations is a cyberpunk trope. See any of William Gibson's fiction from the early 80s.

Yes it's a cyberpunk trope, but it's also based in history. Wealthy nobles of Rome and Medieval times were landowners and, to put it bluntly, warmongers... using armies to make profit by war. They were nothing if not the corporate warlords of their times, holding shares in agriculture, land ownership and armies. Collecting shares of their workers (commonly referred to as share cropping), much like taxation. If that isn't some form of pseudo governmental function, I'm not sure what is =/

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#120

Post by bombcar »

asah wrote: post #87

awesome. I'm confused about two things: 1. "Not a single ship captain works in the Pentagon or any of the major national security think tanks." - I doubt there are satellite operators, travel industry execs, farmers or construction workers either. US military leaders are tasked with zero substantial threats to US peace, security and order, and mostly succeeds, with the exceptions rare enough to be newsworthy (JFK/etc…

A TEU is a "Twenty-foot-equivalent" or a half-container (most containers you see are 40 footers.

But the boats that carry them are huge and slow and absolutely sitting ducks to even a small navy (the Coast Guard could sink them, and improvised equipment could trash them relatively easily).

If there was any risk of losing one of those ships to deliberate activity, all hell would break loose (the theory behind the article). Weather isn't even a major an issue anymore with modern predictions and satellites. So insurers are happy to insure at low risk odds, pennies or dollars per container.

https://gcaptain.com/the-worst-containership-disasters-in-re... (same website lol) has some of the big ones that have happened, all accidental.

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