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Bitcoin Falls Below $20k for the First Time Since 2020

bloomberg.com

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Re: Bitcoin Falls Below $20k for the First Time Since 2020

#121

Post by algo_trader »

lrvick wrote: post #63
dzogchen wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not going to 'magically' drop to zero. It is going to drop to zero.

It will never drop to 0, barring no fundamental security flaws are discovered, because there will always be people like me that are never willing to sell and always willing to buy more. If it hits $1, I will just stock up. Traders getting out is good for me. I am in Bitcoin, or any really viable replacement that emerges, long term for reasons fickle speculators do not care about. I fundamentally believe a healthy soc…

Could u please game this out for me (Disclosure: i do not hold or hate crypto)?

99% of crypto users sell, or abandon their wallets

Remaining users are HODL, and even have some cash left

Demand falls, prices falls, mining difficulty adjusts, HODLs keep buying

As difficulty falls, there is a real risk of something-something-51% attack

So HODLs (acting rationally) need to spend more $$ to boost prices just to protect their existing coins

So now, we have a finite asset (coins), which do not generate income, but require non trivial constant $ cost just to protect it?

Re: Bitcoin Falls Below $20k for the First Time Since 2020

#122

Post by nappy-doo »

scoopertrooper wrote: post #61
drawingthesun wrote: post #11

Considering Bitcoin had never fallen lower than a previous cycles ATH (All Time High) until now, who is thinking that this might be a sign of the end of crypto? Each cycle goes higher was pretty much the only thing that kept the whole thing going. Now that is gone I think the space will dry up. Tether collapsing in the next couple weeks will likely put Bitcoin under $10,000

> Considering Bitcoin had never fallen lower than a previous cycles ATH (All Time High) until now, who is thinking that this might be a sign of the end of crypto? This sounds like just another one of those synthetic signposts people create around crypto. It's just a pattern. It has no particular significance; beyond the fact that if enough people believe in it, then it might influence their actions in a way that move…

The arbitrary signposts are because the only way to look at Bitcoin is with technical analysis and looking at the graph. There are no earnings releases, press releases, or business conditions to discuss. We can only look at the price, and speculate. (NB: speculate, not invest.)

Re: Bitcoin Falls Below $20k for the First Time Since 2020

#123

Post by dylkil »

Jarmsy wrote: post #97
delaaxe wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Prices are gonna be dirt cheap after Ethereum switches to proof of stake in September

Hasn't that been promised and delayed dozens of times already? Do you think it will ever really happen?

it will happen by september, testnets already merged and merging

Re: Bitcoin Falls Below $20k for the First Time Since 2020

#124

Post by knorker »

lrvick wrote: post #55
silisili wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's hoping. When stocks tank, one can decide if a company is undervalued and decide whether to buy in. Bitcoin has no value other than speculation, so it's a hard ask for people to buy in as it's never technically undervalued...

Bitcoin has value for the same reason Visa has value. A medium of exchange is a tool, and tools people use have value. I grant the majority of the market is speculation but many of us actually regularly use Bitcoin for things like payroll, settling debts, cheap international value transfer, buying coffee, and for cash-like privacy for online purchases. For those like me that have been continually buying, saving, and…

> Bitcoin has value for the same reason Visa has value.

No. Visa has contracts, offices, and cash. They have over $81B in assets, over $12B of which is cold hard cash.[1]

Visa also has employees who know what they're doing. Bitcoin has cryptocurrency industry people working on its behalf. It's not the same thing.

Bitcoin has people and companies invested in it (emotionally and financially). Visa has almost a hundred billion dollars in assets, and the market believes they'll be able to make even more (hence the almost $400B market cap).

Visa's market cap is just 4-5x its current assets.[2]

Bitcoin has no assets. It's just speculation. It can't be liquidated even in theory.

[1] https://s1.q4cdn.com/050606653/files/doc_financials/2022/q2/...

[2] ok, so it also has liabilities. But my point stands. Visa has value in a way that Bitcoin doesn't.

Re: Bitcoin Falls Below $20k for the First Time Since 2020

#126

Post by nappy-doo »

dubswithus wrote: post #119
SunlightEdge wrote: post #17

I was laughed at, repeatedly, on Twitter, by crypto types when I often said I was confident Bitcoin price would fall below $20k 6 months ago. It's not something you can really short though?

I’ll bet you $10k USD that Bitcoin goes over 30k in the next 4 years. What does your crystal ball say about that?

You're writing OP, an almost perfect put. Although I have no interest in BTC, and would never take someone up on a bet like this, there's almost no upside on this bet for you.

Re: Bitcoin Falls Below $20k for the First Time Since 2020

#128

Post by mnadkvlb »

synu wrote: post #103
Grimburger wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's not something you can really short though? It's the easiest financial instrument in the world to short? Far easier than going short on stocks. You can go long and short on 6 month futures for a tiny fee.

Simply give the exchanges fees to short bitcoin, and after they collapse they will pay you out.

what if the exchanges shut down ??

Re: Bitcoin Falls Below $20k for the First Time Since 2020

#129

Post by jmartin2683 »

lrvick wrote: post #55
silisili wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's hoping. When stocks tank, one can decide if a company is undervalued and decide whether to buy in. Bitcoin has no value other than speculation, so it's a hard ask for people to buy in as it's never technically undervalued...

Bitcoin has value for the same reason Visa has value. A medium of exchange is a tool, and tools people use have value. I grant the majority of the market is speculation but many of us actually regularly use Bitcoin for things like payroll, settling debts, cheap international value transfer, buying coffee, and for cash-like privacy for online purchases. For those like me that have been continually buying, saving, and…

I believed all of that until the day I actually tried to accept it as currency at my business.

It doesn’t work. Other things do the job much cheaper and faster… and without burning a small country worth of energy.

Re: Bitcoin Falls Below $20k for the First Time Since 2020

#130

Post by dubswithus »

nappy-doo wrote: post #126
dubswithus wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’ll bet you $10k USD that Bitcoin goes over 30k in the next 4 years. What does your crystal ball say about that?

You're writing OP, an almost perfect put. Although I have no interest in BTC, and would never take someone up on a bet like this, there's almost no upside on this bet for you.

I don’t make bets I can’t win. But you aren’t the first person to tell me they would 100% win this bet if only they weren’t morally opposed to gambling or something.

There is no cash upfront. It’s perfect.

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