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Bitcoin Falls Below $20k for the First Time Since 2020

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Re: Bitcoin Falls Below $20k for the First Time Since 2020

#61

Post by scoopertrooper »

drawingthesun wrote: post #11

Considering Bitcoin had never fallen lower than a previous cycles ATH (All Time High) until now, who is thinking that this might be a sign of the end of crypto? Each cycle goes higher was pretty much the only thing that kept the whole thing going. Now that is gone I think the space will dry up. Tether collapsing in the next couple weeks will likely put Bitcoin under $10,000

> Considering Bitcoin had never fallen lower than a previous cycles ATH (All Time High) until now, who is thinking that this might be a sign of the end of crypto?

This sounds like just another one of those synthetic signposts people create around crypto. It's just a pattern. It has no particular significance; beyond the fact that if enough people believe in it, then it might influence their actions in a way that moves the market.

My favourite was that people were going around saying the cost of mining Bitcoin served as a floor to the market. As though the miners would (somehow) stop the price going down when it became unprofitable for them to mine. More likely, they'd just stop their mining activities and move onto something more lucrative.

Re: Bitcoin Falls Below $20k for the First Time Since 2020

#62

Post by igorkraw »

lrvick wrote: post #55
silisili wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's hoping. When stocks tank, one can decide if a company is undervalued and decide whether to buy in. Bitcoin has no value other than speculation, so it's a hard ask for people to buy in as it's never technically undervalued...

Bitcoin has value for the same reason Visa has value. A medium of exchange is a tool, and tools people use have value. I grant the majority of the market is speculation but many of us actually regularly use Bitcoin for things like payroll, settling debts, cheap international value transfer, buying coffee, and for cash-like privacy for online purchases. For those like me that have been continually buying, saving, and…

Using this logic, we can value 1 bitcoin at 7/1700* 442billion /21 million = 87$ (Bitcoin Tps divided by Visa TPS times first visa market cap I found divided by number of Bitcoins ).

Except if course, if you buy a piece of visa, you get a dividend and legal rights, while owning a Bitcoin gets you the privilege of paying miners to extract that value. So really, that 7/1700*442e9 $ is the value of those who own the network (the miners), not the users.

Re: Bitcoin Falls Below $20k for the First Time Since 2020

#63

Post by lrvick »

dzogchen wrote: post #45
benj111 wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While I appreciate that's somewhat psychologically important, I don't think it's magically going to drop to zero now.

It's not going to 'magically' drop to zero. It is going to drop to zero.

It will never drop to 0, barring no fundamental security flaws are discovered, because there will always be people like me that are never willing to sell and always willing to buy more.

If it hits $1, I will just stock up. Traders getting out is good for me.

I am in Bitcoin, or any really viable replacement that emerges, long term for reasons fickle speculators do not care about. I fundamentally believe a healthy society needs a reasonably private, international, censorship resistant, and open source financial system that works over the internet. I see such a thing as having more -real- value than the US dollar that a small number of people can print more of at any time for political reasons.

Re: Bitcoin Falls Below $20k for the First Time Since 2020

#64

Post by jacknews »

SunlightEdge wrote: post #17

I was laughed at, repeatedly, on Twitter, by crypto types when I often said I was confident Bitcoin price would fall below $20k 6 months ago. It's not something you can really short though?

Did you also balk when the price rose to $100, $1000, $10_000, and were laughed at?

Perhaps you will be laughed at again if the price goes back toward $100_000.

The point is, you can be right some of the time, but it's a purely speculative market, and no-one really knows where it's going. Is bitcoin 'worth' nothing? Yes. Is it worth whatever people are prepared to pay for it, which could be millions? Also Yes.

Re: Bitcoin Falls Below $20k for the First Time Since 2020

#65

Post by redox99 »

zdkl wrote: post #34
iLoveOncall wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tether collapsing would have a far larger effect than putting BTC to 10K, it would probably be the end of crypto. The vast majority of alt-coins cannot be exchanged against dollars and have a value only if they can be traded against USDT or other stablecoins.

> The vast majority of alt-coins cannot be exchanged against dollars I mean. You could, like, sell them on a forum or in person. With your wallet which is supposed to enable you to do just that. I admire the success of crypto-exchanges' marketing in making them out to be the only way to conduct transactions on a friggin transaction management system . But then you 'd have to deal with the fact that next to no one wan…

What you are saying is kind of orthogonal. Nowadays you can and people do indeed sell crypto in person, and using your wallet. But you use a stablecoin because it's much more convenient since its stable. Then with such stablecoin you have purchased, you swap it for your desired altcoin either on a centralized exchange or decentralized exchange.

I don't agree with the other comment that the USDT/Altcoin pair is such a big deal. If USDT became even less desired, other stablecoins pair would appear and surpass USDT pairs in volume.

Re: Bitcoin Falls Below $20k for the First Time Since 2020

#66

Post by lrvick »

igorkraw wrote: post #62
lrvick wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bitcoin has value for the same reason Visa has value. A medium of exchange is a tool, and tools people use have value. I grant the majority of the market is speculation but many of us actually regularly use Bitcoin for things like payroll, settling debts, cheap international value transfer, buying coffee, and for cash-like privacy for online purchases. For those like me that have been continually buying, saving, and…

Using this logic, we can value 1 bitcoin at 7/1700* 442billion /21 million = 87$ (Bitcoin Tps divided by Visa TPS times first visa market cap I found divided by number of Bitcoins ). Except if course, if you buy a piece of visa, you get a dividend and legal rights, while owning a Bitcoin gets you the privilege of paying miners to extract that value. So really, that 7/1700*442e9 $ is the value of those who own the net…

The miners have no incentive to mine unless there are a large number of people choosing to exchange Bitcoin giving it buying power to offset electricity cost.

Re: Bitcoin Falls Below $20k for the First Time Since 2020

#67

Post by dendriti »

lrvick wrote: post #55
silisili wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's hoping. When stocks tank, one can decide if a company is undervalued and decide whether to buy in. Bitcoin has no value other than speculation, so it's a hard ask for people to buy in as it's never technically undervalued...

Bitcoin has value for the same reason Visa has value. A medium of exchange is a tool, and tools people use have value. I grant the majority of the market is speculation but many of us actually regularly use Bitcoin for things like payroll, settling debts, cheap international value transfer, buying coffee, and for cash-like privacy for online purchases. For those like me that have been continually buying, saving, and…

Visa is not a medium of exchange. This is a sad take.

Re: Bitcoin Falls Below $20k for the First Time Since 2020

#68

Post by Grimburger »

drawingthesun wrote: post #11

Considering Bitcoin had never fallen lower than a previous cycles ATH (All Time High) until now, who is thinking that this might be a sign of the end of crypto? Each cycle goes higher was pretty much the only thing that kept the whole thing going. Now that is gone I think the space will dry up. Tether collapsing in the next couple weeks will likely put Bitcoin under $10,000

> the end of crypto

How do you propose to replace the $100bn online drug market?

Re: Bitcoin Falls Below $20k for the First Time Since 2020

#69

Post by politelemon »

paulgb wrote: post #27
SunlightEdge wrote: post #17

I was laughed at, repeatedly, on Twitter, by crypto types when I often said I was confident Bitcoin price would fall below $20k 6 months ago. It's not something you can really short though?

You can short miners and hodlers like Microstrategy. I’ve been at it for a while and am up a nice vacation or two out of it. https://paulbutler.org/2021/betting-against-bitcoin/

That was a good essay, thanks

Re: Bitcoin Falls Below $20k for the First Time Since 2020

#70

Post by sweetbitter »

lottin wrote: post #58
sweetbitter wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think anything could be better for cryptographic currencies than most of the speculators having their investments crushed.

Except that their only use case is speculation, so once speculators are gone... nothing is left.

I've bought them to rent VPS many times. They have their value, since they are effectively the ability to teleport cash (with similar ramifications as physical cash) from point A to point B.
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