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If it isn't going to work, just shut it down

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Re: If it isn't going to work, just shut it down

#111
post #88
post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Of all the people to call a grifter you choose the one who's doing the most to solve climate change, pushing forward EVs and space, is employing thousands of great engineers and inspiring new generations of engineers? Get a grip.

Musk is doing very, very far from the most to solve climate change. He puts batteries in pathologically unreliable self-crashing cars. And burns thousands of tons of kerosene or natural gas in each rocket.

> puts batteries in pathologically unreliable self-crashing cars

I don't even own a Tesla or Tesla stock, and I can tell that you've got some serious issues going on. Calling Tesla cars "self-crashing" and "unreliable" is just flat out lying[1]. This website is not a Twitter echo-chamber, and it's certainly not your personal soapbox. People are going to call you out.

Get a grip, indeed.

[1] https://electrek.co/2021/12/21/tesla-model-y-achieves-highes...

Re: If it isn't going to work, just shut it down

#112
post #32

A great quote sticks in my mind, shared with me by a founder who was going through hard times with his startup. The company was going through a bad spot, and one of his investors suggested just giving up and returning the existing capital to the investors. An advisor then said: "It's not their money anymore. Don't you dare give up." He didn't, he persevered, and the company had a fine outcome years later. I would not…

I've been a technical advisor for several startups, I'd say that overall this advice is wrong. Most startups stay in it way longer than they should. I'm happy that things worked out in your example, but they generally don't. Mostly because founders reason with their feelings instead of applying logic, statistics and probabilities of success.

It really depends on what the end game is. Diplomacy?

Might make sense to wait and see what kind of rocks you find.

Re: If it isn't going to work, just shut it down

#113
post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the other hand, if the team works well together, maybe they would actually be good at building something different? It seems like this will vary significantly depending on the team and the new plan. How valuable is it, really, to keep this team together?

As investors, we have no more knowledge of how well the team works together than that they failed to build what the market wanted. That is their only track record as a team.

It's true that from the outside view, we know very little. Insiders may disagree, though.

Re: If it isn't going to work, just shut it down

#114
post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Persevere when winning is worth the cost and quit when it isn’t. Joint pain 20 miles into a 26 mile race? Keep going. Joint pain 10 miles into a 15 mile training run? Quit. Feeling like you’re blowing out your ACL during a race that isn’t at the olympics? Quit. Muscle pain during any type of run? Keep going, that’s growth. Depending on the startup or project you’re evaluating, there are models you can run to decide i…

Just to add, you should never have joint pain, even if you run a marathon. Adjust your running form. At the end of a tough race your muscles should scream at you and some tendons might hurt, but if your joints hurt, you're doing something wrong.

In my case joint-pain (petellar tracking) wasn't my running form, it was that running was the only exercise I was doing, so one of my quads was stronger than the others. I balance it out with yoga and swimming now and can run without injury (knock on wood)

Re: If it isn't going to work, just shut it down

#115
post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I burnt years of my life following advice like this when I was young and didn’t know better. If your formula is sufficiently wrong, which is the rule not the exception, you can’t make up for it with perseverance. There’s a selection bias in these stories you hear. Stories about people who gave it their all and failed aren’t popular.

If your formula is sufficiently wrong, which is the rule not the exception, you can’t make up for it with perseverance. You can make up for it by examining your formula and experimenting with changes to it though, even when something is hugely wrong. Persevering with the same thing when it doesn't work is stupid; understanding that and trying to fix it is not. It's what startups call pivoting. You might still fail if…

Someone once said "Startups don't die, they commit suicide".

I was working on a small bootstrapped product for some 3 years. I had great opportunity at the time, because I was still young and living with my parents and I didn't have to work for money at the time. I got some pushback after launch, but I was tired of the sacrifice and started freelancing and moved out to live on my own. I never formally declared that I quit, I just thought that I would do it in my off time. I had little imagination that this would practically meant that I'm quitting because I was not getting anything done with that approach. 2 years later, I decided to get back to it again. I started laying low, go back to living with my parents (this time I did earn money though), but I unlocked some 40h/week for my product experiments. After some 6 months of experimenting with the old idea and realizing of how horrible the code was, deciding to rewrite it from scratch, I came upon a related, but different idea that I have found actually to be useful myself and I saw just how superior it was to the previous idea and how it solved pretty much every problem with the old product. I also made many mistakes with the old product launch, that was just due to being too inexperienced (being too greedy with the price, not marketing to enough people - and of course, giving up way too quick).

I'm still working on the new product. Not sure if it will succeed in any way but I do not want to lose momentum. I'm learning tons. While working on the current idea, I have 2 new ideas for bigger products. I guess if it fails I will try the VC route with something new. BUT do I wish I could go back in time to the time when I stopped, I would be 2 years ahead and likely launching the new product now.

My story is of someone who did not succeed yet. If I persist and not die too soon (like literally die), my story will fall under "survivorship bias".

Re: If it isn't going to work, just shut it down

#116
post #111
post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Musk is doing very, very far from the most to solve climate change. He puts batteries in pathologically unreliable self-crashing cars. And burns thousands of tons of kerosene or natural gas in each rocket.

> puts batteries in pathologically unreliable self-crashing cars I don't even own a Tesla or Tesla stock, and I can tell that you've got some serious issues going on. Calling Tesla cars "self-crashing" and "unreliable" is just flat out lying[1]. This website is not a Twitter echo-chamber, and it's certainly not your personal soapbox. People are going to call you out. Get a grip, indeed. [1] https://electrek.co/2021/1…

Consumer reports identified Tesla's as the least reliable American car.

Re: If it isn't going to work, just shut it down

#117
post #98

This has to be the worst advice I've seen on HN since 2008. It assumes if idea #1 doesn't work out quitting is the best way to go. The reality is once you have even a small team of co-founders or a slightly larger one together you have a group of people who have _hopefully_ learned to work with each other well and can move unencumbered to explore and test a variety of ideas, develop insights and ultimately increase t…

I think your reality is very far from the actual reality. What I have witnessed with every single startup where I personally knew the founders was that the ideas were bad, the people were bad and the way of working was bad.

I'm assuming basic competence in other areas, product/eng/sales/design etc. if you don't have that AND you don't have a clear idea/insight, then certainly it will be hard to succeed.

Re: If it isn't going to work, just shut it down

#118
post #116
post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> puts batteries in pathologically unreliable self-crashing cars I don't even own a Tesla or Tesla stock, and I can tell that you've got some serious issues going on. Calling Tesla cars "self-crashing" and "unreliable" is just flat out lying[1]. This website is not a Twitter echo-chamber, and it's certainly not your personal soapbox. People are going to call you out. Get a grip, indeed. [1] https://electrek.co/2021/1…

Consumer reports identified Tesla's as the least reliable American car.

> Consumer reports identified Tesla's as the least reliable American car.

Going from "self-crashing cars" (which is a really serious allegation) to "cars that break down" (citing consumer reports of all sources); you keep moving the goalpost and are clearly not debating in good faith.

Good luck out there.

Re: If it isn't going to work, just shut it down

#119
post #118
post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Consumer reports identified Tesla's as the least reliable American car.

> Consumer reports identified Tesla's as the least reliable American car. Going from "self-crashing cars" (which is a really serious allegation) to "cars that break down" (citing consumer reports of all sources); you keep moving the goalpost and are clearly not debating in good faith. Good luck out there.

I said "unreliable" in my first post, which you quoted yourself. (See.) Consumer Reports is the most authoritative source on car reliability, and its absence.

And even you must be aware of numerous widely reported cases of Teslas autonomously ramming concrete barriers and stopped vehicles. There are even dramatic vids on YouTube. (See.)

We need not discuss the common "burst into flame, incinerating the vehicle down to the pavement".

Elon has enough money to buy shills, and does. He does not need volunteers.

Re: If it isn't going to work, just shut it down

#120
post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If your formula is sufficiently wrong, which is the rule not the exception, you can’t make up for it with perseverance. You can make up for it by examining your formula and experimenting with changes to it though, even when something is hugely wrong. Persevering with the same thing when it doesn't work is stupid; understanding that and trying to fix it is not. It's what startups call pivoting. You might still fail if…

> You might still fail if you pivot but you'll definitely fail if you stop. I think this is a skewed way to look at it, because it doesn't take into account what happens once you failed. Fail your startup after a year, get hired as an employee and grow your career for a few years, and you have immensely more chances to be in a good place to succeed than if you choose to push and spend years before failing your startu…

Yes, "failing" is not the right word, for the people in the startup. "Doing something else instead" is a better word
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