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Scotland starts renewed case for independence

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Re: Scotland starts renewed case for independence

#661

Post by randomsearch »

physicsguy wrote: post #583
randomsearch wrote: post #434

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Scotland won't be part of the EU" Oh yes, and voting for Remain is the only way to stay in the EU. I think that argument has long since sailed. The EU will undoubtedly fasttrack Scotland straight back into the EU and single market before independence arrives. As a major English-speaking country in the EU, with ports at the periphery of Europe, strong exports, and a finance capital, Scotland will be in a great positi…

That's not what I said though, is it? Not much point attacking a straw man argument. If Scotland voted to leave the UK, it'd almost certainly need to go through the normal accession process. That's unlikely to happen until Scotland had formally left. Even if the EU agreed to start negotiating immediately after the vote, it's still questionable whether it'd be complete by the time that it left the UK. I don't disagree…

My point being, that scaremongering about Scotland not being fast tracked backed into the EU is very similar to the false arguments used at the referendum.

This is a country that has already been in the EU, was dragged out against its wishes, and now wants to rejoin. It will not be a normal accession process.

Ignoring that fact, the EU has a huge political incentive to ease Scotland’s re entry wrt the English situation.

Ironically, I expect it will be England that ensures the fast tracking by making it impractical for Scotland to retain the pound, forcing them to adopt the euro.

Re: Scotland starts renewed case for independence

#662

Post by randomsearch »

Engineering-MD wrote: post #653
randomsearch wrote: post #434

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Scotland won't be part of the EU" Oh yes, and voting for Remain is the only way to stay in the EU. I think that argument has long since sailed. The EU will undoubtedly fasttrack Scotland straight back into the EU and single market before independence arrives. As a major English-speaking country in the EU, with ports at the periphery of Europe, strong exports, and a finance capital, Scotland will be in a great positi…

Spain might be an issue, and may veto their application to dissuade Catalonia from leaving. Additionally, trade issues with likely open borders the rUK and EU would be significant and similar to the current NI problem

The Spanish threat was real last time. This situation is now completely different and would not set a precedent for Catalonia (unless Spain decides to leave the EU!!!)

Yes the border would be a real problem, in the long term mostly for England.

Re: Scotland starts renewed case for independence

#663

Post by refurb »

MagnumOpus wrote: post #610
refurb wrote: post #349

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean Canada has been corrupted by Chinese money (see Vancouver home prices recently?) and has a pro-CCP member of the government in British Colombia. Yet I keep hearing about Russians.

It can be both, you know.

Sounds like both are more just political point scoring?

Re: Scotland starts renewed case for independence

#664

Post by refurb »

sofixa wrote: post #547
refurb wrote: post #353

Earlier quoted context omitted.

None of those things actually infer Russian interference. At least not any more than say Chinese, or French.

Dirty money in the tens/hundreds of billions doesn't infer interference? Including sizeable donations to the Conservative party? https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/12/world/europe/russian-mone...

Hardly proof of Russian control.

Re: Scotland starts renewed case for independence

#665

Post by AnnikaL »

dataengineer56 wrote: post #75
lordnacho wrote: post #7

I don't see why not. The whole leaving the EU thing is a reasonable cause for independence. In general I like smaller units of government too, and it's not as if they can't cooperate with the UK in areas where they agree. I do have a horse in this race as I have Scottish family who'd have more choices with an EU passport.

Scotland wouldn't meet the criteria to join the EU - it's far too poor and small by itself. Exiting the UK would just isolate them more.

In 2021, Scotland's GDP per capita was estimated[0] to be about £30,000, or around €35,000 euros. This is hardly poor--even if economic output fell by half on independence, Scotland would still have a higher nominal GDP per capita than many EU members (such as Poland, Romania, and the Baltic States)[1]. I don't know how much independence would affect the economy, but a 50% decrease seems quite harsh.

Its population of around 5 million is comparable to other small EU member states such as Ireland, Slovakia, Finland, and Croatia[2].

[0] - https://www.gov.scot/binaries/content/documents/govscot/publ...

[1] - https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/sdg_08_10/def...

[2] - https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/tps00001/defa...

Re: Scotland starts renewed case for independence

#666

Post by brigandish »

Taywee wrote: post #593
brigandish wrote: post #312

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps I could've been clearer. There will always be changes, hence, anyone who wishes to claim there's been a change can. That doesn't obviate "once in a generation", does it? Perhaps they should've been clearer and said "once in a generation, and if the UK has a referendum on EU membership and we decide to leave, and if…" It would've been more honest, at least. I'll also note, you're right that the vast majority o…

Why does the statement "once in a generation" completely obviate any nuance? It makes sense to evaluate things based on events and changes in situation and context. It makes sense to not bring up things over and over again in an attempt to change something that people don't want changed. It doesn't make sense to use a phrase as the sole justification for avoiding reevaluating a decision made in a different context. I…

A politician says "once in a generation". In that time a lot of things can happen. Think back a generation (about 30 years) and of the big things that have happened. The SNP leaders, when making this statement, were all well over 30 and hence, knew that big things happen in that time.

That's why the changes you might say would lead to re-evaluation do not.

Re: Scotland starts renewed case for independence

#667

Post by brigandish »

jagged-chisel wrote: post #274
brigandish wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Anyone can claim the situation has changed, every year. Life does not go backwards. I'm still not clear why that means "once in a generation" becomes "as soon as I can get what I want". > > a third of those voting for independence also want(ed) independence from the EU > Which means two third, the majority, voted for the EU? Seems like a legit reason for a new vote. Has that figure changed dramatically? Even if it ha…

Am I missing that a mention of "once in a generation" is suddenly such a binding statement that the speaker can't go back on it? "What are the odds?" 'Once in a generation, I should think' "Things went badly, let's try again" 'Can't! Once in a generation!'

I'd say that if you don't wish to be held to a pledge like "once in a generation" then don't make it. If you're the sort of person who thinks words don't matter, that your promises and guarantees don't matter, then I get it.

Otherwise I would have to conclude that you simply wish your political goals to be made easier. We'd all like that.

Re: Scotland starts renewed case for independence

#668

Post by brigandish »

scott_w wrote: post #250
brigandish wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Anyone can claim the situation has changed, every year. Life does not go backwards. I'm still not clear why that means "once in a generation" becomes "as soon as I can get what I want". > > a third of those voting for independence also want(ed) independence from the EU > Which means two third, the majority, voted for the EU? Seems like a legit reason for a new vote. Has that figure changed dramatically? Even if it ha…

Because it’s a spectrum. A minor change of policy? Not a solid basis to reevaluate a constitutional referendum. Completely rewriting huge chunks of your country’s constitution and international relationships? Probably grounds to rethink your own constitution.

Were the SNP leaders unaware that many things can change over a 30 year period when they made the pledge?

Were the SNP leaders unaware that there was a strong movement to leave the EU within the UK as a whole and also within their own movement?

The answer to both is yes, so what's the excuse?

Re: Scotland starts renewed case for independence

#669

Post by brigandish »

slightwinder wrote: post #322
brigandish wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Anyone can claim the situation has changed, every year. Life does not go backwards. I'm still not clear why that means "once in a generation" becomes "as soon as I can get what I want". > > a third of those voting for independence also want(ed) independence from the EU > Which means two third, the majority, voted for the EU? Seems like a legit reason for a new vote. Has that figure changed dramatically? Even if it ha…

> Anyone can claim the situation has changed, every year. Yes, they can, and some do. But don't also need to convince the people and follow some regulations for this? It's not like they can randomly vote for anything and everything every day as they like, or can they? > Has that figure changed dramatically? Make a vote to figure out? > "once in a generation" What exactly does this mean? I mean, sure, back in 2014(?)…

> > "once in a generation"

> What exactly does this mean?

From the Oxford English dictionary:

> generation | dʒɛnəˈreɪʃ(ə)n | > noun > • the average period, generally considered to be about thirty years, in which children grow up, become adults, and have children of their own: the same families have lived here for generations.

> With Brexit, the climate movement in 2019, then the Pandemia and now the war this all changed drastically.

I think you already covered that with "Anyone can claim the situation has changed, every year". Think back over 30 years and tell me there weren't big changes then too.

If you say to me "once in a generation" and you're over 40 then I'm going to hold you to it. You didn't come down in the last shower.

Re: Scotland starts renewed case for independence

#670

Post by brigandish »

gruturo wrote: post #269
brigandish wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Anyone can claim the situation has changed, every year. Life does not go backwards. I'm still not clear why that means "once in a generation" becomes "as soon as I can get what I want". > > a third of those voting for independence also want(ed) independence from the EU > Which means two third, the majority, voted for the EU? Seems like a legit reason for a new vote. Has that figure changed dramatically? Even if it ha…

> Anyone can claim the situation has changed, every year. Life does not go backwards. I'm still not clear why that means "once in a generation" becomes "as soon as I can get what I want". Are we pretending that Brexit wasn't a massive change of situation?

Are we pretending that the SNP was unaware of UKIP when they made the pledge?
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