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Earlier quoted context omitted.
This is only the second time I have heard someone reference actual shelling of Taiwan, the other was my Mother in Law who lived there for awhile - I tried to find info about it online and came up blank, is there a good source you know of?
Google 金门炮战 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Taiwan_Strait_Crisis
Edit - either I misread or they changed it to 50s, my bad. That would he the second straight crisis.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
That is a fundamental misreading of China's relationship with Taiwan and China's intentions. China is likely to never attack Taiwan as long as the status quo is maintained, and as long as they believe that eventual peaceful reunification is possible. China's policy on Taiwan has not changed for decades. The height of military tensions were in the late 50s, when China and Taiwan were shelling each other. In later deca…
This is only the second time I have heard someone reference actual shelling of Taiwan, the other was my Mother in Law who lived there for awhile - I tried to find info about it online and came up blank, is there a good source you know of?
Unfortunately, China will likely attack Taiwan unless Russia is humiliated.
That is a fundamental misreading of China's relationship with Taiwan and China's intentions. China is likely to never attack Taiwan as long as the status quo is maintained, and as long as they believe that eventual peaceful reunification is possible. China's policy on Taiwan has not changed for decades. The height of military tensions were in the late 50s, when China and Taiwan were shelling each other. In later deca…
Your comment was excellent, and helpful to me. Thanks.
I do disagree that China isn't watching US reaction through a million lenses to see how they can best increase their odds rolling over Taiwan with minimal damage. My strongest evidence? Political changes in Hong Kong.
Biden said he would militarily defend Taiwan (throw Ukraine under the bus). The leash on Taiwan is officially off now. Embrace for more aggression from both sides to challenge the status quo.
I'm not convinced the equivalence you mention - "aggression from both sides" - is really there. The current Taiwanese government's only stated goal is to defend itself; there is no serious surviving political will in Taiwan to attack China. China could attack Taiwan (particularly Matsu and Kinmen), but an attack on the mainland also appears less likely these days, given the very real chance of humiliation a la Russia…
Russia has 10 times the artillery as Ukraine and they are putting it to work. The West is simply not providing enough to Ukraine
Hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians will eventually die, and they could lose.
https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-risks-losing-artillery-war-...
Earlier quoted context omitted.
That is a fundamental misreading of China's relationship with Taiwan and China's intentions. China is likely to never attack Taiwan as long as the status quo is maintained, and as long as they believe that eventual peaceful reunification is possible. China's policy on Taiwan has not changed for decades. The height of military tensions were in the late 50s, when China and Taiwan were shelling each other. In later deca…
What about what they did in Hong Kong? They changed the rules once, what stops them from doing it again? History clearly means nothing.
For example, the US clearly agreed on the One China Policy but they are now changing it. Because the US no longer values the original purpose that the One China Policy served.
So the question "will China renegade on its agreement or not?" is best answered with another question: "What is China's core interest? What purpose does an agreement serve to China?"
It is unfortunately here where big misreadings happen. Popular western understand of China says that China does things because they are "authoritarian", "expansionist", "power hungry", etc. But a true analysis of China's interest would show that one of China's core interests is territorial integrity, defined largely by the territory it had inherited from the Qing empire in 1911, and the Republic of China in 1949. China's policy on territorial integrity has not changed since 1949.
We may not always agree with China's interests. Maybe they conflict with ours. But properly understanding those interests will at the end of the day surely yield better outcomes than misreading China with stereotypes.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
That is a fundamental misreading of China's relationship with Taiwan and China's intentions. China is likely to never attack Taiwan as long as the status quo is maintained, and as long as they believe that eventual peaceful reunification is possible. China's policy on Taiwan has not changed for decades. The height of military tensions were in the late 50s, when China and Taiwan were shelling each other. In later deca…
What about what they did in Hong Kong? They changed the rules once, what stops them from doing it again? History clearly means nothing.
While the EU, US, India, Australia are all trying to change this semi conductor status quo by building their own manufacturing facilities, it is not easy as I understand it. Am guessing it would take at least 5-10 years to have full fledged production facility in the scale the world demands if this needs to be changed. That is if really wanna be Taiwan free with semi conductors. Which I doubt the world will do. But hey with M1 and RISC-V, there is a whole new future waiting for the semi conductor industry. So who knows what will happen?!
Unfortunately, China will likely attack Taiwan unless Russia is humiliated.
They are shelling everything and rolling over the dust.
“Russia isn't fighting a campaign of attrition, it's waging a war of oblivion.”
Biden said he would militarily defend Taiwan (throw Ukraine under the bus). The leash on Taiwan is officially off now. Embrace for more aggression from both sides to challenge the status quo.
I'm not convinced the equivalence you mention - "aggression from both sides" - is really there. The current Taiwanese government's only stated goal is to defend itself; there is no serious surviving political will in Taiwan to attack China. China could attack Taiwan (particularly Matsu and Kinmen), but an attack on the mainland also appears less likely these days, given the very real chance of humiliation a la Russia…
That is entirely wrong. There are plenty of people in the current government pushing the envelope to achieve more "pronounced" independence.
Two examples:
Biden’s democracy summit incident. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/curious-case-map-...
Change of passport. The current government is also pushing to get the day-to-day name Taiwan more prominent. For example, they are putting the Taiwan name on the passport now, even though their constitutional name is Republic of China (I am wondering when they will change that).
Depending on which side you are, you may consider these are declaration of independence and a change of status quo.
> China could attack Taiwan (particularly Matsu and Kinmen), but an attack on the mainland also appears less likely these days, given the very real chance of humiliation a la Russia in Ukraine.
I think you may misunderstand the CCP. Even the perception of losing Taiwan will cause them to lose control in the mainland. What matters most to CCP? And imagine what they will do.
In Taiwan right now, I was surprised how close some Taiwan-controlled islands are to the mainland. Kinmen is just 10km away[1]. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kinmen