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Solving the housing crisis requires fighting monopolies in construction (2020)

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Re: Solving the housing crisis requires fighting monopolies in construction (2020)

#151

Post by imtringued »

lazide wrote: post #44
zamfi wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All of this is true, but...housing markets are extremely regional. In the SF Bay Area, for example, despite much more new construction, there is still not nearly enough housing being built to satisfy demand, and as a result prices are driven extremely high. In other parts of the US, there is much more housing supply and relatively low demand, making housing more affordable. Nationwide stats hide a lot of regional rea…

I think you’re talking past each other a bit. The demand you’re talking about in the SF Bay Area is not necessarily driven by ‘butts in seats’ (aka actual people needing a roof and willing to pay a concrete price for it), but also by the cheap money narrative the FED has been feeding for a very long time. Which is what they are referring to in their post as having changed.

Low interest rates only amplify existing demand letting people borrow more principal for the same monthly payment but people are still competing over who can afford the highest monthly payment.

Re: Solving the housing crisis requires fighting monopolies in construction (2020)

#152

Post by imtringued »

singron wrote: post #146
TedShiller wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Go to any big US city with dense housing and tell me rents there are low. For people always referencing Tokyo -- why aren't you living in Tokyo then?

You really aren't talking about the same thing. It's not like you can add 100 housing units to an area one time and achieve affordable housing indefinitely. The housing units have to be added to meet increases in demand. The idea I think you are assuming is that supply causes demand (i.e. demand will always rise to meet supply), and that the supply-demand curve is flat to maintain price regardless of supply.

The supply and demand curve of land is so steep and vertical you would think it should be impossible.

Re: Solving the housing crisis requires fighting monopolies in construction (2020)

#153

Post by imtringued »

User23 wrote: post #52

There is plenty of cheap or even virtually free housing available in major cities such as Detroit, Baltimore, St. Louis, and many others, as well as countless trailer parks in any of countless Nowheresvilles, USA. The unspoken dirty little secret is that affordability complaints are really about housing that is around the kind of people the buyer wants to be around and not around the kind of people the buyer doesn't…

Wealth concentration also leads to geographic concentration of jobs. So people cannot choose to live in Detroit, global investors decide where your job is going to be and where you are going to live.

Re: Solving the housing crisis requires fighting monopolies in construction (2020)

#154

Post by avgcorrection »

whimsicalism wrote: post #135
bradlys wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No - it makes putting half the stage on the market. There is a difference.

Given that 50% of the state rents and you would make it illegal for them to continue their current occupancy arrangement? Not going to keep replying.

Yeah, these people want to restructure the market and turn home serfs into homeowners. Monsters.

Re: Solving the housing crisis requires fighting monopolies in construction (2020)

#155

Post by workingon »

TedShiller wrote: post #115
workingon wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did you even read what I wrote? People are experiencing lack of housing even in not typically expensive areas. I’m from the middle of nowhere west virginia, and the rents have doubled and the only local jobs are fast food tier. These people have nowhere to go and no hope to find a place to live. Get your head out of your ass.

I think that's a good case for government needing to provide housing assistance. What you see on this forum is people complaining that housing in SF/LA/NYC is not cheap. However, in your case, I think you have a point.

HN is a bubble and it’s sad so many people live in it they have no idea what is happening to 50% of the population in this country and needs it drilled into their head repeatedly that they even exist.

Re: Solving the housing crisis requires fighting monopolies in construction (2020)

#156

Post by oldgradstudent »

frankfrankfrank wrote: post #113
oldgradstudent wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The monopolization the paper refers to is how industry and government prevent the adoption of factory methods in construction, increasing construction costs.

I get that especially here people would love to think that "factory methods in construction" are wonderful, but the reality is that it is way more "human soul crushing communist block building" and far less utopian wonderland.

In defense of the "human soul crushing communist block buildings", at least they were less soul crushing than living with multiple other families in the same apartment, sharing bathrooms and kitchens.

Post WWII there were an actual housing crisis in the USSR, and those block buildings helped a lot.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khrushchyovka

Re: Solving the housing crisis requires fighting monopolies in construction (2020)

#157

Post by cmmeur01 »

hash872 wrote: post #41
jschveibinz wrote: post #2

According to this resource ( https://www.newhomesource.com/learn/stick-built-vs-modular-h... ): - Modular home construction is an $11 billion industry, growing at 8.5% per year - The cost of modular/factory vs. stick built construction is about a 10-20% savings. On a $500k home, that’s going to be less than $25k difference in price. That’s not the problem. Additionally from this source ( https://blog.lotnetwork.com/l…

Lot/construction loans is a highly speculative business, especially as lots of builders are blue-collar guys with minimal assets who can simply close shop in a recession. Building homes is constrained by the wider economy and interest rates, and they take a while to build, so in all of the umpteen million housing crashes we've had previously, a large % of homes built will hit in the market in the middle of a crash. T…

When’s the last time a bank has “taken it on the chin”?

Re: Solving the housing crisis requires fighting monopolies in construction (2020)

#158

Post by kkfx »

Just as a question: can someone try do depict what is the "housing crisis"? I mean is simply "there are not much affordable homes" or something else. Because IMVHO that's MUCH something else. Surely monopolies in general are not good, but honestly I suspect the actual crisis haven't much to do about real estate/construction business, not even to mere economics terms (i.e. high prices).

Long story short: how can housing be stable in a changing society in a changing world? If a mass of people want (and/or need) to relocate because of increasing bad climate and extreme events (floods, fires, too-hot-in-too-long-summers, ...), if there is a crossing between some who need to go to cities because can't afford anymore living outside and some who want freedom outside, if properties prices keep floating due to such moves how can a stable housing exists?

Re: Solving the housing crisis requires fighting monopolies in construction (2020)

#159

Post by smokey_circles »

noahtallen wrote: post #137
whimsicalism wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Given that 50% of the state rents and you would make it illegal for them to continue their current occupancy arrangement? Not going to keep replying.

Not saying I agree, but the concept is that 50% more capacity on the market drives down prices so much that renters can afford to own. Obviously not everyone could afford, and not everyone wants to, and that transition process would be dramatically inefficient. (For example, inspectors could charge a fortune with so many people trying to buy so many homes)

The end goal is not the problem.

It's ridiculous to suggest outlawing 50% of a state's living arrangement.

Good solutions consider the current state, they don't skip past it entirely

Re: Solving the housing crisis requires fighting monopolies in construction (2020)

#160

Post by concordDance »

zamfi wrote: post #133
zeusk wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The investor's objective is to maximize yield, not minimize homelessness or keep affordability in check. In that, if they don't find a renter for their jacked up rent - they "renovate" the property - get a higher appraisal and sell it to the next schmuck. Housing can’t both be a good investment and be affordable. You can't make economic decisions on the basis that real estate will always grow more than income or even…

> Housing can’t both be a good investment and be affordable This gets repeated a ton, but isn’t true unless you assume density never increases. Buying a SFH and replacing it with a 4-plex would be profitable in almost every market — were it allowed , which it almost never is in the US. In that alternate universe, the SFH owner makes money, the developer makes money, and the new units in the new building can be afford…

Wouldn't they also be oppressively small and bad for mental health (which is already pretty bad compared to fifty years ago)?
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