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Solving the housing crisis requires fighting monopolies in construction (2020)

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Re: Solving the housing crisis requires fighting monopolies in construction (2020)

#81

Post by TedShiller »

novok wrote: post #79
TedShiller wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't assume there is even a housing crisis. Not everyone can live in NYC, that is a simple fact. Or LA, or SF. It's physically impossible. If you think building more housing lowers rent, then you've never been to a big city before.

But building more housing does lower rent in big cities? It's status quo in tokyo, and it even happened locally where a mini-condo boom caused condo prices to stay flat around that area, while SFH house prices went up. Condos in other regions nearby continued to go up in price, where there wasn't a condo building boom.

Go to any big US city with dense housing and tell me rents there are low.

For people always referencing Tokyo -- why aren't you living in Tokyo then?

Re: Solving the housing crisis requires fighting monopolies in construction (2020)

#82

Post by winkeltripel »

jelliclesfarm wrote: post #66
eesmith wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The author doesn't single out unions like you do: > Many groups were, and still are, opposed to factory production, including building contractors, building craft unions, building code inspectors, architects, materials producers and politicians (who are supported by the traditional industry). While these groups are sometimes at odds with each other, they all join together to fight factory production of homes. They fo…

https://calmatters.org/housing/2022/05/california-housing-cr... : example..more recently as to how unions control housing supply.. [..]Anti-worker or pro-worker? Why labor unions are fighting over a housing bill The bill, which has the support of Assembly Speaker Anthony Rendon, would allow housing that is 100% affordable to low-income households to be built “by right” on areas now zoned for offices, retail and parki…

> how much unionized labor developers would have to use to take advantage of the streamlining

That seems like a reasonable clause to me. It sounds like what anyone would want their union to do.

Re: Solving the housing crisis requires fighting monopolies in construction (2020)

#84

Post by sokoloff »

softfalcon wrote: post #70
lazide wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That…. Has nothing apparently to do with what the message you were replying to was asking?

I think they’re trying to say that “higher construction costs” is literally the “multi-million dollar bids” to own property without going through a HOA. For the average person, this makes the land and construction costs unobtainable for the average person, effectively creating a monopoly for the builders and the HOA organizations with deep pockets to bid.

Is monopoly the right word for a set of thousands of developers competing to develop land and build new neighborhoods?

Re: Solving the housing crisis requires fighting monopolies in construction (2020)

#85

Post by tmnvix »

adam_arthur wrote: post #68
nostrademons wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If housing is supply bound - which we know it is, because prices are rising - then rate of household growth is going to equal rate of new home construction, because you can't form those households until there's a house for them to move into. Which it does - compare your link with my census.gov link on new residential construction. Everyone who doesn't have a home has to double up with roommates or continue living wit…

"Supply" as in inventory is a totally different concept from the actual structural supply of housing. To say housing is supply bound is simply wrong. Inventory is low now and will be high in 6-12 months. To extrapolate out permanent conclusions from a point in time inventory metric is completely flawed analysis. I'll refer you to the generationally low inventory in the 2000s, coupled with similar widespread shortage…

I think it's sometimes hard for people to accept that the difference between inventory and supply can fluctuate.

The simplistic view is that residences are either rented out or occupied by the owner. In reality a speculative boom creates excessive demand which increases the number of residences that are second homes, Airbnb's, undergoing renovation, on the market, land-banked, etc. Most of this is made possible as capital gains become more significant relative to yields.

It's counterintuitive but a speculative boom can lead to both higher prices and a higher proportion of underutilised residences.

Re: Solving the housing crisis requires fighting monopolies in construction (2020)

#86

Post by poutine »

Modern houses are far more complex undertakings than houses built a decade or two ago. This translates to cost.

Take a look at something like the BC Energy Step Code https://energystepcode.ca/ and its guidelines on thermal bridging: https://www.bchousing.org/research-centre/library/residentia...

It produces better buildings, but this is all new and expensive. Expand this sort of thing all out to all the other components (electrical, plumbing, foundation, etc) of modern, compliant buildings and you get the idea.

Re: Solving the housing crisis requires fighting monopolies in construction (2020)

#87

Post by almost_usual »

adam_arthur wrote: post #51
zamfi wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t think we are talking past each other. There is absolutely a housing supply crisis in the Bay Area that is not reflected in the national stats. I’m not sure why so many people believe that housing prices in high-demand markets are dominated by things like interest rates — there is certainly an effect, sure — but by far the predmoinant reason a 2br house on a small lot with a small yard costs $2m+ in Palo Alto…

Firstly, I'm talking nationally. Secondly, the Bay Area is one of the markets subject to some of the more severe headwinds if remote work becomes the new normal, for the reasons you stated. SF population declined ~7% over the past two years. https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/San-Francisco-populat... The concept of being forced to live in a hyper local area for work may be a thing of the past, which doesn't bode…

> Bay area is one of the last places in the country I'd want to own a home right now

I’d pick the Bay Area over anywhere else in the US, with or without remote. Judging by real estate prices after remote took off (ignoring condos) I’m guessing a lot of others feel the same way.

Re: Solving the housing crisis requires fighting monopolies in construction (2020)

#88

Post by lazide »

vostok wrote: post #55
adam_arthur wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Firstly, I'm talking nationally. Secondly, the Bay Area is one of the markets subject to some of the more severe headwinds if remote work becomes the new normal, for the reasons you stated. SF population declined ~7% over the past two years. https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/San-Francisco-populat... The concept of being forced to live in a hyper local area for work may be a thing of the past, which doesn't bode…

Density still has huge benefits unrelated to work. I don't know much about SF as I haven't lived there as an adult, but New York is an incredible place to live for lifestyle reasons too. It has great food, a very high concentration of smart and highly educated people, great museums, great performance arts, etc. It's also an incredibly walkable city, which is rare in the US. Hands down it would be my choice of city if…

SF only has one thing going for it really - weather.

Everything else pales compared to NYC.

Re: Solving the housing crisis requires fighting monopolies in construction (2020)

#89

Post by lazide »

zamfi wrote: post #56
adam_arthur wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Firstly, I'm talking nationally. Secondly, the Bay Area is one of the markets subject to some of the more severe headwinds if remote work becomes the new normal, for the reasons you stated. SF population declined ~7% over the past two years. https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/San-Francisco-populat... The concept of being forced to live in a hyper local area for work may be a thing of the past, which doesn't bode…

Sure, and I’m not making any claims about the future, either — just pointing out what the causes have been so far: demand/supply mismatch has had a far larger impact than speculation and interest rate policy or “narrative” on Bay Area housing prices. If demand plummets, of course prices will follow.

Demand is driven by those factors you say don’t matter.

That’s the point folks are trying to make.

It doesn’t just magically appear.

Re: Solving the housing crisis requires fighting monopolies in construction (2020)

#90

Post by mistrial9 »

poutine wrote: post #86

Modern houses are far more complex undertakings than houses built a decade or two ago. This translates to cost. Take a look at something like the BC Energy Step Code https://energystepcode.ca/ and its guidelines on thermal bridging: https://www.bchousing.org/research-centre/library/residentia... It produces better buildings, but this is all new and expensive. Expand this sort of thing all out to all the other compone…

that is one part -- meanwhile, stupid building codes in expensive areas, are real; crooked inspectors in very expensive areas, are real

source: four years in construction trades, my own two eyes

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