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How to make decisions like a poker player

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Re: How to make decisions like a poker player

#41

Post by llaolleh »

LudwigNagasena wrote: post #15
morley wrote: post #7

I've also heard this topic referred to as "results-oriented thinking," which is generally what you don't want: you shouldn't judge a decision based on its result, but on the information you had at the time. The key to this idea, which I don't see covered in the blog post, for making future decisions is that you shouldn't let past bad luck affect your future decisions. If you lose a positive EV bet, it shouldn't shy y…

Results-oriented thinking is bad, but so is not updating your priors.

Glad to see a fellow Bayesian in here lol.

Re: How to make decisions like a poker player

#42

Post by lamroger »

morley wrote: post #7

I've also heard this topic referred to as "results-oriented thinking," which is generally what you don't want: you shouldn't judge a decision based on its result, but on the information you had at the time. The key to this idea, which I don't see covered in the blog post, for making future decisions is that you shouldn't let past bad luck affect your future decisions. If you lose a positive EV bet, it shouldn't shy y…

> I've also heard this topic referred to as "results-oriented thinking," which is generally what you don't want: you shouldn't judge a decision based on its result, but on the information you had at the time.

Had this happen at work recently and shapes why I was ok with the outcome even though it wasn't what we wanted.

I was building an integration and got it working and trying to push to Prod when I realized the integration with the 3rd party required a security audit... Given the information at the time, it was the right thing to build but didn't do deep enough research. Lesson learned.

Re: How to make decisions like a poker player

#43

Post by mettamage »

lexapro wrote: post #28
mettamage wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There might not be an alternative. However, the example is simply wrong (IMO) since it assumes that within a 30 year timeframe you'll have gained 8% on average (adjusted for inflation). If this would be true, thne yes it would be a decision-making trap. I think that's what morley is getting at. I'm arguing it's a tough sell that the S&P 500 works like that. If one would agree that the S&P 500 might not continue to gi…

There are ETFs that invest in international stocks. VT for example. That way you're not betting it all on one country.

That's a good point, betting on the world is a more viable strategy. That is at least, if the world is growing in an economic sense. With that said, since the world population will grow, I'd be willing to make that bet. In this case, I'd say the example holds up.

Re: How to make decisions like a poker player

#44

Post by mettamage »

Spooky23 wrote: post #32
mettamage wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Could you give an example of this?

People who describe themselves as super honest usually are self-deprecating. They tend to under value their knowledge and experience. The reality is, 95% of scenarios don’t require what is asked for, and stating your capabilities in the most generous way is the optimal decision. Just back it up with work.

Underrated comment :) Upvoted and favorited.

Re: How to make decisions like a poker player

#45

Post by DeathArrow »

As an amateur poker player, both at the table and in life, I can say that sometimes the biggest wins are the result of bluffing.

It does not matter what hand an opponent has as long as you can convince him you have a better hand.

Also, it is handy to recognize the situations when an opponent might bluff, so you can call.

Re: How to make decisions like a poker player

#46

Post by jhugo »

elliekelly wrote: post #27
dkjaudyeqooe wrote: post #9

I've found that frequently bluffing in life pays off. Generally you don't get caught very often and the cost of getting caught generally isn't very high, even if the stakes are. You have to be prepared to take your way out of sticky situations though.

I think people who tend to “bluff” often also tend to seriously underestimate how often they’re “caught”. Just because no one has called you on your bluff to your face doesn’t mean you haven’t been caught.

Does it matter?

Re: How to make decisions like a poker player

#47

Post by muh_gradle »

elliekelly wrote: post #27
dkjaudyeqooe wrote: post #9

I've found that frequently bluffing in life pays off. Generally you don't get caught very often and the cost of getting caught generally isn't very high, even if the stakes are. You have to be prepared to take your way out of sticky situations though.

I think people who tend to “bluff” often also tend to seriously underestimate how often they’re “caught”. Just because no one has called you on your bluff to your face doesn’t mean you haven’t been caught.

Bluffing in poker doesn't mean something silly like going all in with 72o. It can be something like playing a relatively weaker hand more strongly because you've evaluated the range of hands that your opponent can have and the range of hands that you could have. Likewise, in real life, bluffing doesn't have to mean outrageous lies.

Re: How to make decisions like a poker player

#48

Post by csa »

beginnercounter wrote: post #24

The author sounds like a losing poker player. If my calling frequency is based entirely on pot odds, a good opponent would just start bluffing me out of every pot by increasing their bet size to a point where I can’t profitably call.

> a good opponent would just start bluffing me out of every pot…

People try this.

> …by increasing their bet size to a point where I can’t profitably call.

A good poker player will adjust your expected range based on your sizing and frequency of bets/raises, and they will adjust their calling/raising ranges accordingly.

Most poker games, especially big bet games are played against a range/distribution of hands, not a specific hand.

Re: How to make decisions like a poker player

#49

Post by fer »

mettamage wrote: post #10
dkjaudyeqooe wrote: post #9

I've found that frequently bluffing in life pays off. Generally you don't get caught very often and the cost of getting caught generally isn't very high, even if the stakes are. You have to be prepared to take your way out of sticky situations though.

Could you give an example of this?

Not OP either. Here there aren't turnstiles to access the commuting train, but there are controllers on board from time to time. With seldom use, it's just better not to buy a ticket (read: to bluff).

Numbers made up and simplified but in the same ballpark:

Round-trip ticket across town: 10€

Monthly pass: 50€

Fine: 70€

The chance to be controlled is roughly 1 in 10 for a round-trip. So if one did 5 round-trips in a month, on average one would pay 70 x 5 x 0.1 = 35€. Which is a good price with acceptable variance fur such usage. When caught just pay without fuss.

At some point (between 7 and 8 round-trips) it's more cost effective to just buy the monthly pass, as the average cost of not buying approaches/goes over such threshold.

Re: How to make decisions like a poker player

#50

Post by alasdair_ »

beginnercounter wrote: post #24

The author sounds like a losing poker player. If my calling frequency is based entirely on pot odds, a good opponent would just start bluffing me out of every pot by increasing their bet size to a point where I can’t profitably call.

> The author sounds like a losing poker player.

Annie Duke has cashed 39 times at the WSOP and has won at least four million dollars at tournaments alone.

Any good poker player would understand that the example was simplified for a non-playing audience. It’s so obvious it didn’t need to be stated.

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