Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Food security and the coming storm

eurasiagroup.net

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

321–330 of 427 posts

Re: Food security and the coming storm

#321

Post by zdragnar »

ajsnigrutin wrote: post #314
ThunderSizzle wrote: post #309

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then the government will need to admit much of a price tag is taxes, probably 1st after taxes.

People have been waking up to this during the current gas price crisis... governments say they're doing everything they can, but they can't do more, because of the global oil prices,... ...meanwhile more than half of the gas price goes to the government, and people are notcing.

The idea of a federal gas tax holiday has apparently been floating around DC lately, but I'm pretty skeptical that they'll be able to return to full taxes without significant pushback.

Re: Food security and the coming storm

#322

Post by vstck17 »

ThunderSizzle wrote: post #309
ajsnigrutin wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or regulate price transparancies... how much does the farmer get, how much the processor, how much the retailer, and how much goes to taxes.

Then the government will need to admit much of a price tag is taxes, probably 1st after taxes.

In the US, the federal gas tax has been 18.4 cents per gallon since 1993.

If anything, they are losing money with inflation and the decreased demand that higher fuel prices will create.

Re: Food security and the coming storm

#323

Post by colechristensen »

simtel20 wrote: post #317
colechristensen wrote: post #271

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Instead of financial instruments they are actual contracts for purchasing a commodity in the future from a local purveyor.

Without a futures market, you don't get futures, you get forwards, don't you? Forwards don't have enforcement for when the seller goes bankrupt, which leaves the buyer out any money paid in the forward contract and needing to find another supply at market price. That's my understanding, at least.

Calling them forwards implies that they are tradable securities.

I’m talking about going to the local farmers coop and purchasing next years fertilizer, fuel, etc. months in advance for a set price to be paid and delivered in the future.

When you sell your outputs it’s a good idea to buy your inputs at the same time. The outputs are often exchange traded commodities, the inputs are often contract purchases with local dealers although you can also hedge with appropriate exchange traded commodities.

Re: Food security and the coming storm

#324

Post by randomdata »

code123456789 wrote: post #71

LOL. The article says that to fix the issue we need some international efforts and blah blah blah. Bullshit. All we need is to sink down russian ships in Black sea. Even better will be to help with the liberation of both Kherson and Crimea regions. Zaporizhzhya and Donbas can be liberated later, but Bastion rockets in Crimea endanger ports in Odesa and Yuzhne. This is the easiest way to provide food to emerging marke…

> If we chase russians off from Ukraine, food prices will return to normal.

What's normal? As a farmer, I started seeing the price of my products go up abnormally in 2020. In fall of 2021 were we already starting to grow concerned about fertilizer availability. Russia hasn't helped matters, but things were already very strange before Russia was in the news.

Re: Food security and the coming storm

#325

Post by SkyPuncher »

Sylveste wrote: post #316
SkyPuncher wrote: post #313

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm tempted not to respond because you're clearly not applying a good faith argument here. Nobody in this thread, besides you, is suggesting that it is preferable to let a baby die than to feed them partial nutrients. Of course, if your child is literally starving, you should look to a less than ideal, short term solution. This thread is in the context of "why isn't the media providing alternatives". I'm refuting the…

>Of course, if your child is literally starving, you should look to a less than ideal, short term solution. Yes. That's the issue we're having here. People are encountering that situation of being unable to find formula, meaning that their children are literally at risk of starving, asking for alternatives and being told 'there's just no viable alternative' by the media as though that information will make formula ap…

> 'there's just no viable alternative' by the media

This isn't the media's job. Their recommendation is to talk with your doctor. This is realistically the only safe suggestion since all of the alternatives are bad.

> Famine relief, missionary and other charities do have reliable and nutritious recipes for baby formula alternatives that can be made in bush conditions and over open fires in metal pots.

Please, please, please, cite your source on this. I have a really hard time believing this as simple as "this one trick from Africa". I believe what you're referring to is literally infant formula. You're simply describing the process of sanitizing water then mixing in standard, powdered infant formula.

The introduction of formula to impoverished regions was extremely controversial. As mother's used formula, their milk production decreased. This forced them into a dependency on formula manufacturers or milk-donors (wet-nurses, milk-banks, etc). This would not be a problem if there were viable solutions.

------

EDIT: Lastly, I would like to point out that this isn't an argument about "feed the baby" or nothing. If you are that desperate to feed your baby, go to a fucking hospital. They _will_ be able to help you.

Re: Food security and the coming storm

#326

Post by giantrobot »

ALittleLight wrote: post #297
oneoff786 wrote: post #266

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A rigorous procedure involves precise measurements, ph testing, and other things many people do not understand let alone have the capability to execute. But could easily attempt anyway and fuck up

I don't know anything about the safe DIY manufacture of baby formula, but, even if I assumed what you are saying is true, and I'm pretty confident you're wrong, that isn't even an argument. We should deny people good instructions, forcing those who want to try to use bad instructions, because some people might incorrectly follow the good instructions?

You can't provide "good instructions" for something that needs high levels of control in the manufacture. The process is as much a part of the recipe as the ingredients. It's much more rational to put resources into fixing the shortages rather than having people get their babies sick because they didn't completely sterilize a pot because it wasn't explicitly outlined in the recipe.

Re: Food security and the coming storm

#327

Post by grayfaced »

jillesvangurp wrote: post #15
sdoering wrote: post #4

I recently had a conversation with an organic farmer. While he is able to pass on at least some of his increased costs for energy and fuel through direct sales and cooperatively organized distribution channels, his conventionally farmed colleagues have a bigger problem. They have long-term purchase contracts that fix the prices for milk, meat or vegetables. In the case of milk and meat in particular, production costs…

I'm less pessimistic. People in the US, and increasingly the rest of the world are on a diet that just isn't good for them: lots of low quality carbs with cheap fat and artificial flavorings and not a whole lot of nutritional value. Arguably, a large part of the population is eating way more than is good for them and not enough good quality food. And it's not just a money issue: it's a skill and knowledge issue. Peop…

I agree with much of your sentiment but I don't think it actually addresses food security unless you're talking about stockpiling wheat to last through a bad year. Buying wheat flour instead of wheat bread doesn't help in case of a real wheat famine. The big processors orders will be filled first, and the market shelves will be empty. Whole product lines will disappear with consolidation. Many people were completely unable to buy flour during the grocery-shock of pandemic. I had to stop baking during the pandemic.

When food security is truly tested people are going to be in for a nasty surprise. If bread runs out, people will collectively buy out the whole aisle. Then the whole baking aisle, then the rest of grocery store. Then people start eating sawdust and leather.

Re: Food security and the coming storm

#328

Post by c_o_n_v_e_x »

simtel20 wrote: post #317
colechristensen wrote: post #271

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Instead of financial instruments they are actual contracts for purchasing a commodity in the future from a local purveyor.

Without a futures market, you don't get futures, you get forwards, don't you? Forwards don't have enforcement for when the seller goes bankrupt, which leaves the buyer out any money paid in the forward contract and needing to find another supply at market price. That's my understanding, at least.

>Without a futures market, you don't get futures, you get forwards, don't you? Forwards don't have enforcement for when the seller goes bankrupt, which leaves the buyer out any money paid in the forward contract and needing to find another supply at market price. That's my understanding, at least.

Correct. You have an over the counter market with different derivatives.

> Forwards don't have enforcement for when the seller goes bankrupt, which leaves the buyer out any money paid in the forward contract and needing to find another supply at market price. That's my understanding, at least.

You're referring to counter party risk. A futures exchange seeks to eliminate this type of risk with daily settlement of positions, margins, etc.

Re: Food security and the coming storm

#329

Post by c_o_n_v_e_x »

RustyConsul wrote: post #265
colechristensen wrote: post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you sold futures for your outputs and didn’t buy futures for your inputs, the results are on you. These are the kind of complaints you get from people who make market bets and end up wrong. You can use futures like insurance to insulate yourself from market fluctuations or you can use them like a casino.

that was my initial thought as well, but you are limited by the availability of financial instruments as you move up the chain to inputs. Outputs are easy to craft instruments around, but inputs are what a business is.

There are futures to hedge inputs, especially for farming:

- Diesel for tractors

- Fertilizers

- The weather itself

- interest rates

- real estate

AFAIK the only inputs without derivatives are labor cost and pesticides.

Re: Food security and the coming storm

#330

Post by grayfaced »

zdragnar wrote: post #149
pharmakom wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You compared the cooking time to going to McDonald’s but didn’t include the time to go to the shops!

Or the cleanup afterwards, which is often the most unpleasant part of actually cooking.

Most cooking shows or recipes make things too fancy. You can make many recipes with a pan, a spatula, a knife and cutting board. Prep, cook and clean in 10 minutes. Burgers, pasta with homemade sauce, chicken salad.

I can't even walk into mcdonalds and walk out with food that quick.

Post reply on HN