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Hottest May in History for Texas

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Re: Hottest May in History for Texas

#61

Post by LanceH »

titzer wrote: post #50
LanceH wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And, once again, screaming "climate change" when there is a high begets "counter arguments" when it's cooler. Not every article with a hot point of data is proof and shouldn't be treated as such. To be very clear before the knee jerk downvoting occurs, climate change is very real and needs to be addressed, scientifically. Don't bail on the mountains of science to make points in a small article about a regional high o…

Temperatures, particularly high temperatures, have a distribution. If enough contributing factors were independent, the high temp would follow a normal distribution, and new records would decrease in frequency over time. This isn't what we are seeing. Records are being broken faster than ever; outliers are increasing . So is the average. Turns out, yeah, it is climate change. The whole distribution is shifting over.

So...when some place has a low, you're going to take that has proof against global warming? Of course not.

This article isn't about temperatures distributed over time or the globe. It's about one state over one month. That is cherry picking data and doesn't support global warming any more than one place is cold disproves it.

I'm saying to take global warming out of the popularity/anecdote contest, even when popularity and single points of data support it. But I see that people would rather play the popularity game by down voting me. They would also prefer to cherry pick data. Both of these backfire when someone else has enough votes or gets to pick the data.

Nothing I've written has been against climate change. It's merely against the, "See it's hot! Climate Change!" style argument which I believe does more harm than good.

Re: Hottest May in History for Texas

#62

Post by formerkrogemp »

nkozyra wrote: post #28
silisili wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I move a lot to different cities, but was able to come to a similar conclusion in central FL in that every house older than 1980 or so had a wood burning fireplace. The thought was so gross to me even seeing them...it rarely got cold enough to even warrant heat. Of course, it was very rare in new builds, and even then usually just the decorative kind.

Not to mention the idea that anyone could live in Florida before air conditioning.

Pretty soon, ie now in Pakistan and India, the wet bulb temperature, a measure of realtime humidity and temperature, will regularly exceed 120 degrees, at which point it becomes too hot for the human body to physically cool itself with sweat. Our climate is changed and changing now. It was cooler in Florida 10-20 years ago, let alone centuries ago. It's hotter now. When hundreds of millions are starving, flooded, overheated, dried out, or otherwise displaced, how do you think life will be going for those without fucking air conditioning.

Re: Hottest May in History for Texas

#63

Post by silisili »

autoexec wrote: post #42
silisili wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I move a lot to different cities, but was able to come to a similar conclusion in central FL in that every house older than 1980 or so had a wood burning fireplace. The thought was so gross to me even seeing them...it rarely got cold enough to even warrant heat. Of course, it was very rare in new builds, and even then usually just the decorative kind.

> t every house older than 1980 or so had a wood burning fireplace. The thought was so gross to me even seeing them Wait, wood-burning fireplaces are gross? Do you mean aesthetically or conceptually? I doubt too many in Florida depend on them for heat like they might have in past decades, but can't fireplaces still be enjoyed for what they are? Cozy to sit near, fun to watch/cook over, great for incinerating incrimin…

Ah sorry, I meant gross as is in it's usually 90 and humid and you're already sweating looking at houses, then the idea of more heat makes you ill(at the time).

In that area, it would very rarely drop below 60 in waking hours, even in the winter. I'm guessing it used to get a bit colder 40 years ago.

It also makes me wonder about climate zones, as you're not supposed to be able to grow coconut palms there, but there were a healthy amount thriving...

Re: Hottest May in History for Texas

#64

Post by [deleted] »

autoexec wrote: post #42
silisili wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I move a lot to different cities, but was able to come to a similar conclusion in central FL in that every house older than 1980 or so had a wood burning fireplace. The thought was so gross to me even seeing them...it rarely got cold enough to even warrant heat. Of course, it was very rare in new builds, and even then usually just the decorative kind.

> t every house older than 1980 or so had a wood burning fireplace. The thought was so gross to me even seeing them Wait, wood-burning fireplaces are gross? Do you mean aesthetically or conceptually? I doubt too many in Florida depend on them for heat like they might have in past decades, but can't fireplaces still be enjoyed for what they are? Cozy to sit near, fun to watch/cook over, great for incinerating incrimin…

[deleted]

Re: Hottest May in History for Texas

#65

Post by nkozyra »

formerkrogemp wrote: post #62
nkozyra wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not to mention the idea that anyone could live in Florida before air conditioning.

Pretty soon, ie now in Pakistan and India, the wet bulb temperature, a measure of realtime humidity and temperature, will regularly exceed 120 degrees, at which point it becomes too hot for the human body to physically cool itself with sweat. Our climate is changed and changing now. It was cooler in Florida 10-20 years ago, let alone centuries ago. It's hotter now. When hundreds of millions are starving, flooded, ove…

I grew up in Florida and the daytime temperatures were tolerable from early October to June. The data is readily available and it is hotter and more humid for far more of the year than when I was a kid.

Change that fast - regardless of cause - is alarming.

Re: Hottest May in History for Texas

#66

Post by titzer »

LanceH wrote: post #61
titzer wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Temperatures, particularly high temperatures, have a distribution. If enough contributing factors were independent, the high temp would follow a normal distribution, and new records would decrease in frequency over time. This isn't what we are seeing. Records are being broken faster than ever; outliers are increasing . So is the average. Turns out, yeah, it is climate change. The whole distribution is shifting over.

So...when some place has a low, you're going to take that has proof against global warming? Of course not. This article isn't about temperatures distributed over time or the globe. It's about one state over one month. That is cherry picking data and doesn't support global warming any more than one place is cold disproves it. I'm saying to take global warming out of the popularity/anecdote contest, even when popularit…

> Nothing I've written has been against climate change. It's merely against the, "See it's hot! Climate Change!" style argument which I believe does more harm than good.

> They would also prefer to cherry pick data.

Stop crying "cherry picking". The 10 hottest years on record for the entire planet have all been in the 21st century. The avalanche of record-breaking heat incidents is overwhelming. If anything, the public needs to have its brains positively bashed in 24/7 with this before attitudes shift.

It's like, hey, on average, Dutch people are the tallest people in Europe. And then someone jumps in and says, "Yeah I knew a Dutch guy once, he was really tall!" and then you jump on them for cherry picking. Completely missed the point.

I don't know why you jumped in hot for an argument. Despite what you might think you are arguing, holding the line for truth or whatever, you're just creating doubt and muddying the waters, shifting the narrative away, propping up the holdouts, and sometimes, deniers. Regardless, there are several misconceptions in what you posted, thus my comment to straighten things out a little. I generally don't want to invest a huge amount of effort into long arguments on HN, so sometimes I downvote, too. Maybe your comment didn't really...sound right, and got downvoted? It happens to everyone.

Re: Hottest May in History for Texas

#67

Post by LanceH »

titzer wrote: post #66
LanceH wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So...when some place has a low, you're going to take that has proof against global warming? Of course not. This article isn't about temperatures distributed over time or the globe. It's about one state over one month. That is cherry picking data and doesn't support global warming any more than one place is cold disproves it. I'm saying to take global warming out of the popularity/anecdote contest, even when popularit…

> Nothing I've written has been against climate change. It's merely against the, "See it's hot! Climate Change!" style argument which I believe does more harm than good. > They would also prefer to cherry pick data. Stop crying "cherry picking". The 10 hottest years on record for the entire planet have all been in the 21st century. The avalanche of record-breaking heat incidents is overwhelming. If anything, the publ…

> Stop crying "cherry picking". The 10 hottest years on record for the entire planet have all been in the 21st century. The avalanche of record-breaking heat incidents is overwhelming. If anything, the public needs to have its brains positively bashed in 24/7 with this before attitudes shift.

This article is about one month in one state.

Your metaphor is entirely wrong.

> Stop crying

> I don't know why you jumped in hot for an argument.

Don't tell me my state of mind.

> Despite what you might think you are arguing, holding the line for truth or whatever, you're just creating doubt and muddying the waters, shifting the narrative away, propping up the holdouts, and sometimes, deniers.

I'm not propping up the deniers. I'm denying them the argument of, "it's a cold month in Georgia, climate change is bogus." I have to deny that argument when it agrees with the theory of global warming. Ooh, I used the word "theory" -- it must mean it's not fact. I use the word theory as "theory of gravity" here.

I'm not shifting a narrative away unless you mean everyone should toe the line and accept global warming as dogma and recite it blindly. The argument for that is just as strong as denying that.

Re: Hottest May in History for Texas

#68

Post by Markoff »

cpncrunch wrote: post #2

We just had the coldest May in 77 years in coastal BC. Both are due to the current La Nina conditions.

yeah, last year few months were coldest in Czechia in decades, now I sent my kid to school trip wearing winter pants and winter jacket, because it's effin 2C there in morning, yesterday afternoon there were 8C, mind it's hilly over there but even in Prague yesterday afternoon it was only 16C, that's like end of winter or beginning of spring and not end of may, almost coming summer, insane cold temperatures, I wish we had global warming, because these last few years are coldest I remember in decades

Also April 2022 was in Prague 123rd warmest among last 248 years, in light of nonsense how hot are supposed to be recent years, this feels extremely cold to be getting median temperature from last qurater millennium. Btw. the hottest April was in 1800, coldest in 1839, so much for records.

https://www.irozhlas.cz/zpravy-domov/duben-praha-klementinum...

Re: Hottest May in History for Texas

#69

Post by [deleted] »

steve_taylor wrote: post #41
refurb wrote: post #11

Wait this article is from May 12th. It’s not “the hottest May on record”, because May isn’t even over? What the article says is the average high/low of the first 11 days is hotter than the hottest month. Uhhh… statistics don’t work like that? You cant compare a part month to a full month and make that claim because your selectively comparing some days to an average of a whole month.

It's meaningless to compare calendar months at all. They're entirely artificial. It would be more meaningful to compare something like rolling n-day average maximum temperates.

[deleted]

Re: Hottest May in History for Texas

#70

Post by the_third_wave »

Here's an interesting graph showing the average insolation for several places in Sweden over the last 40-something years:

https://www.smhi.se/polopoly_fs/1.181504.1647960904!/image/a...

Notice the steady increase (called "global brightening"). This graph is produced and hosted by the Swedish Meteorological & Hydrological Institute (SMHI). They don't produce similar graphs for longer periods nor do they show the correspondence between average insolation and temperature. Fortunately the data is available for Stockholm (see e.g. page 184 of IPCC's AR5 - Observations: Atmosphere and Surface, [1]) which made it possible to create such a graph:

https://imgur.com/a/JF5JlxH

The correspondence between insolation and average temperature is very strong but it hardly ever gets mentioned in the public discourse around climate change. It is discussed on page 186 of AR5 chapter 2 [1] where the observation is made that there is a correspondence and there are numerous studies which come to the same conclusion but as so often is the case there is little to no relation between what the scientific literature says and how the media presents this.

[1] https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5...

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