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S.F. population fell 6.3%, most in nation, to lowest level since 2010

sfchronicle.com

31–40 of 465 posts

Re: S.F. population fell 6.3%, most in nation, to lowest level since 2010

#31
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post #4

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I'd say it's the opposite. The city has a few bad spots, but overall it's quite nice. The big problem is the lack of housing, which is arguably driven by the way that Prop 13 warps economic incentives.

The large and very visible homeless and vagrant population is the biggest issue. There may be a relationship to the housing shortage, but I have a hard timing believing if rents were 50% cheaper, these people wouldn't still be on the streets.

Re: S.F. population fell 6.3%, most in nation, to lowest level since 2010

#32
post #24
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree but I think this also understates the importance of just how messed up SF has become. I don't want to come into contact with human feces as part of my daily commute. I'm going to leave no matter what once that is the case. Especially when the equity in my two bedroom apartement is enough to buy the nicest house ever built in some other smaller city.

If people keep leaving, will that equity materialise as you hope?

Right, which is why you get out while things are still liquid

Re: S.F. population fell 6.3%, most in nation, to lowest level since 2010

#34
post #4

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Non-American here: I lived in the Bay Area for a few years and hated it. There are no cities, just one big blob of suburbia.

It's a little better than that: the NE quadrant of SF is a city. It's also worse: the big blob has many holes.

Re: S.F. population fell 6.3%, most in nation, to lowest level since 2010

#35
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree but I think this also understates the importance of just how messed up SF has become. I don't want to come into contact with human feces as part of my daily commute. I'm going to leave no matter what once that is the case. Especially when the equity in my two bedroom apartement is enough to buy the nicest house ever built in some other smaller city.

[flagged]

What is the conservative solution to this issue?

Re: S.F. population fell 6.3%, most in nation, to lowest level since 2010

#36

With even hybrid work models your living a better life living up in Sac and driving down once a week. This is a good thing. People should vote with their feet.

Problem is when hybrid becomes 2, and then 3 days. That commutes starts becoming a nightmare.

The capitol corridor train is pleasant enough, even if not the most convenient of bay area transit options.

Re: S.F. population fell 6.3%, most in nation, to lowest level since 2010

#37
One thing to note is that the 2021 population is an estimate, and if you are a Census buff as I am, and compare the Census' 2019 estimates to the 2020 actual populations (as calculated from the census), there are often very large differences.

The article also says that CA's estimate of the population decline is much smaller, and arguably CA itself would have more accurate data for this particular metric (residency and voter rolls).

So while I'm sure the gist of the argument is true, there is probably a larger margin of error on the calculation than you'd think at first glance. I'm not quite going to say the article is sensationalist, but if you look at the totality of the data (house prices, rental prices, CA's population estimates, etc), I'm not sure the "SF is in freefall" narrative holds up.

Re: S.F. population fell 6.3%, most in nation, to lowest level since 2010

#38

I think in the two scenarios you can focus on either the positives or the negatives. When population goes up: positive - the area is vibrant economically; negative - rent is spiraling upwards out of control When population goes down: positive - rent is finally affordable; negative - the area is falling apart existentially I think the media in general has found the negative spin sells better.

As a non-US citizen, sometimes I ask myself how did California end up like the country where I am from, which is located in the so called third world.

Re: S.F. population fell 6.3%, most in nation, to lowest level since 2010

#39
post #19

I think remote work is often understated in reasons people move away. When you go into the office every day, it's pretty obvious that you have to live in whatever city you live in. But with remote work, the question becomes "if I don't have to live here, do I want to keep living here". For many (including myself), the answer was a definitive NO. Sure many headlines and news segments make it seem that it's the crime,…

I don't know why it isn't being mentioned. I am not in the Bay Area myself, but about half of my friends there have relocated in the last couple years. A bunch to Washington or Oregon, some to Texas, one to Nashville, and a few others to places mostly in the northeast. All of them cited cost of living as the primary reason ... but all also mentioned full time remote work is what finally made it possible to move. When…

Even if you like San Francisco on balance, it's hard not to ask yourself if you like it so much that you're OK with paying for some of the most expensive housing in the country when you don't have a reason you have to be there.

Re: S.F. population fell 6.3%, most in nation, to lowest level since 2010

#40

I think in the two scenarios you can focus on either the positives or the negatives. When population goes up: positive - the area is vibrant economically; negative - rent is spiraling upwards out of control When population goes down: positive - rent is finally affordable; negative - the area is falling apart existentially I think the media in general has found the negative spin sells better.

I love SF and I'm happy the population is going down. These articles are posted once a week and trumpeted as some sort of victory and I can't imagine who they think is shedding tears over this.

Sometime people wave their hands towards sad homeowners who are ( maybe ) seeing their home prices go down but I own a pricy home in a pricy neighborhood and as far as I'm concerned it's funny money. Whatever profit I'd make from selling my home only matters if I move to a place where home prices haven't gone up at the same rate. There's no lower COL city that I'm interested in living in so it's all the same to me.

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