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S.F. population fell 6.3%, most in nation, to lowest level since 2010

sfchronicle.com

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Re: S.F. population fell 6.3%, most in nation, to lowest level since 2010

#21

Post by logicalmonster »

gamblor956 wrote: post #3

In the first year of COVID. I can't comment about how SF is faring these days, but LA also cleared out that first year. But this year, people came roaring back. The average rent increase in my neighborhood was over 20%. The competition for rental units in some buildings is intense enough that potential tenants either sign a rental agreement on the spot or lose the unit to someone else willing to sign, and at least on…

> people came roaring back. The average rent increase in my neighborhood was over 20%

Just throwing a thought out there, but your anecdote might say a bit more about inflation than about a returning population.

Re: S.F. population fell 6.3%, most in nation, to lowest level since 2010

#22

Post by lovehashbrowns »

ramesh31 wrote: post #4

Quoted post unavailable.

SF is the closest thing to a dystopia for me. Unabashed wealth juxtaposed with poverty, insane cost of living, shit and used needles everywhere, the nation's mental health failure on full display, etc. Nothing has made me as depressed as living in SF.

Re: S.F. population fell 6.3%, most in nation, to lowest level since 2010

#23

Post by ghaff »

_fat_santa wrote: post #5

I think remote work is often understated in reasons people move away. When you go into the office every day, it's pretty obvious that you have to live in whatever city you live in. But with remote work, the question becomes "if I don't have to live here, do I want to keep living here". For many (including myself), the answer was a definitive NO. Sure many headlines and news segments make it seem that it's the crime,…

There's also a natural tendency for many people, as they get older, to tend to gravitate away from downtowns as they care less about the bar scene, say, and more about space for hobbies, family, etc. So you're always going to have some natural outflow for older demographics and it's probable it's not being counterbalanced by new grads moving in.

But I agree with your basic point. If you no longer have to live in an area for work, you definitely start thinking about where you want to live.

Re: S.F. population fell 6.3%, most in nation, to lowest level since 2010

#24

Post by Mumps »

anm89 wrote: post #15
_fat_santa wrote: post #5

I think remote work is often understated in reasons people move away. When you go into the office every day, it's pretty obvious that you have to live in whatever city you live in. But with remote work, the question becomes "if I don't have to live here, do I want to keep living here". For many (including myself), the answer was a definitive NO. Sure many headlines and news segments make it seem that it's the crime,…

I agree but I think this also understates the importance of just how messed up SF has become. I don't want to come into contact with human feces as part of my daily commute. I'm going to leave no matter what once that is the case. Especially when the equity in my two bedroom apartement is enough to buy the nicest house ever built in some other smaller city.

If people keep leaving, will that equity materialise as you hope?

Re: S.F. population fell 6.3%, most in nation, to lowest level since 2010

#25

Post by givemeethekeys »

_fat_santa wrote: post #5

I think remote work is often understated in reasons people move away. When you go into the office every day, it's pretty obvious that you have to live in whatever city you live in. But with remote work, the question becomes "if I don't have to live here, do I want to keep living here". For many (including myself), the answer was a definitive NO. Sure many headlines and news segments make it seem that it's the crime,…

If SF was attractive, then people would want to remotely work from SF. But it isn't. So, they're leaving. On the other hand San Diego seems to be blowing up.

Re: S.F. population fell 6.3%, most in nation, to lowest level since 2010

#26

Post by javajosh »

anm89 wrote: post #15
_fat_santa wrote: post #5

I think remote work is often understated in reasons people move away. When you go into the office every day, it's pretty obvious that you have to live in whatever city you live in. But with remote work, the question becomes "if I don't have to live here, do I want to keep living here". For many (including myself), the answer was a definitive NO. Sure many headlines and news segments make it seem that it's the crime,…

I agree but I think this also understates the importance of just how messed up SF has become. I don't want to come into contact with human feces as part of my daily commute. I'm going to leave no matter what once that is the case. Especially when the equity in my two bedroom apartement is enough to buy the nicest house ever built in some other smaller city.

[flagged]

Re: S.F. population fell 6.3%, most in nation, to lowest level since 2010

#27

Post by gamblor956 »

j_walter wrote: post #6
gamblor956 wrote: post #3

In the first year of COVID. I can't comment about how SF is faring these days, but LA also cleared out that first year. But this year, people came roaring back. The average rent increase in my neighborhood was over 20%. The competition for rental units in some buildings is intense enough that potential tenants either sign a rental agreement on the spot or lose the unit to someone else willing to sign, and at least on…

I haven't seen any data to support "roaring back". 6-ish months ago they were still saying SF rents were down 20% from March 2020. Any idea how many rentals aren't rentals anymore because of the moratorium impact? I know up here in Portland there was a huge net reduction of rentals and prices spiked pretty hard. For example: https://www.rentcafe.com/average-rent-market-trends/us/ca/sa... https://therealdeal.com/sanfr…

Like I said, I can't comment on how SF is doing because I don't live there. But I do live in LA, and the apartments in my neighborhood have never been this full before.

For point of comparison: at two of the apartment buildings on my block, a 1 BR 540 sq ft studio will rent for about $2800. This is up 16% from pre-COVID rates of approximately $2400 for those same units ($2200 during COVID, which is where the >20% increase comes from).

EDIT: At one of those buildings, a 1BR is listed for $3600, which is what a 2BR used to rent for at that same building pre-COVID. I can't say what the 2BR rates are right now because there aren't any listed.

Re: S.F. population fell 6.3%, most in nation, to lowest level since 2010

#28

Post by darth_avocado »

Ridiculous rent for houses/apartments in a very bad shape, rising crime and eroding faith in the justice system (you could argue that the data doesn’t support this, but the reality is that the data doesn’t support this because a lot of crimes these days go unreported), school district going to shit, bad city governance (which trickles into bad transportation, more homelessness, filth in the streets, businesses closing or not enough new ones opening, ever increasing taxes etc.) and overall high taxes which you question when you don’t get proportional services.

Re: S.F. population fell 6.3%, most in nation, to lowest level since 2010

#29

Post by gamblor956 »

logicalmonster wrote: post #21
gamblor956 wrote: post #3

In the first year of COVID. I can't comment about how SF is faring these days, but LA also cleared out that first year. But this year, people came roaring back. The average rent increase in my neighborhood was over 20%. The competition for rental units in some buildings is intense enough that potential tenants either sign a rental agreement on the spot or lose the unit to someone else willing to sign, and at least on…

> people came roaring back. The average rent increase in my neighborhood was over 20% Just throwing a thought out there, but your anecdote might say a bit more about inflation than about a returning population.

No, these buildings are completely full. The average vacancy for the apartment buildings in my neighborhood is less than 1%. Also, you're ignoring the bit about the waitlists...

See also LAT article on this phenomenon, but across the metro area as a whole. https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2022-05-17/california...

Re: S.F. population fell 6.3%, most in nation, to lowest level since 2010

#30

Post by systemvoltage »

I went to SF over last weekend and thought of stopping by Walgreens (Pharmacy) to pick up eye drops. I had to call the associate to unlock the cabinet doors to pick them up. Took 5-10 mins to just get hold of someone with a key ring the size of a coconut. Every cabinet was locked from toothpaste to tampons. This is at the Walgreens near Union Square which is still better than other areas.

People are leaving because of the decline. I wish San Franciscans would stop defending themselves and admit that things are actually worse and whatever politics they're advocating hasn't worked. This extends more generally to California (and other west coast states).

I voted for Shellenberger for Governor of CA. Felt right.

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