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Why isn’t new technology making us more productive?

nytimes.com

371–380 of 603 posts

Re: Why isn’t new technology making us more productive?

#371

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a weird disconnect with computers. The software we use is 1000 times more complex than it was 20 years ago, leading to performance that really have not improved a lot, and a lot of functional stagnation. Many applications are slower to start today than they were 10 years ago, because back then they were binaries and today they are Electron apps. Your average web based word processor with cloud storage perform…

> The software we use is 1000 times more complex than it was 20 years ago, leading to performance that really have not improved a lot, and a lot of functional stagnation. Many applications are slower to start today than they were 10 years ago, because back then they were binaries and today they are Electron apps. Also known as Wirth's law: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wirth%27s_law Sometimes it worries me. If we had…

> [XYZ] basically demand that I do, if I want their other shiny features

well, they aren't doing the demanding, if you're the one who wants those shiny features!

Re: Why isn’t new technology making us more productive?

#372

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> a person can write a paper just as well in Wordperfect 5 as the latest Google Doc or Office365 Word That seems hard to believe; try printing, or formatting. It's like saying 'a person can fly just as well in a 1930s biplane or a current 737.' Sure, they both fly. On the other hand, am I more productive in 2022 Emacs than I would be in 1985 Emacs?

As Robert Gordon notes in his The Rise and Fall of American Growht , an air traveller in 1936 headed from New York to Chicago, could have made the trip in 3h 55m gate-to-gate, vs. 2h 35m today. But in 1936, arrival at the airport need only be 10 minutes prior to departure, gates were immediately next to the terminal entrance, and taxis or a chauffeured Cadillac limousine were 5 minutes from the gate --- the latter co…

You should instead ask " how long must a rich person show up before their flight"

I have not read the book, but from your quote selection so far it seems to mismanaged comparisons of the 1% to the 80% of the population.

If you looked at the poorer part of the population that things are generally much faster since they get to travel by plane at all.

Re: Why isn’t new technology making us more productive?

#373

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think I've ever had computer with lower latency in any application than when using my M1 Pro MacBook. Sure, it's 20 years of hardware innovation, but at least someone is doing something right.

Keyboard button press to screen response is ~100ms whereas an Apple IIe was 35ms.

Apple had the iPad Pro pencil latency down to 30ms in 2017: https://danluu.com/input-lag/

Re: Why isn’t new technology making us more productive?

#374

Earlier quoted context omitted.

30 years ago in order to navigate somewhere you had to ask someone for directions and write down notes. If you missed a turn, god help you. We fundamentally move through the world vastly differently thanks to digital maps. Many people (and in a few years, the majority) are doing so in cars that use electric motors instead of internal combustion engines. One way to tell whether you're in an 80s house would be to look…

> 30 years ago in order to navigate somewhere you had to ask someone for directions and write down notes. If you missed a turn, god help you. We fundamentally move through the world vastly differently thanks to digital maps. Many people (and in a few years, the majority) are doing so in cars that use electric motors instead of internal combustion engines. Honestly, it seems like you're just picking some incremental o…

> Someone from 1950 wouldn't even notice the difference, unless you told them exactly what they were looking at.

I was surprised the first time a Tesla went by because I had no idea a car could be that quiet.

Re: Why isn’t new technology making us more productive?

#375

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think I've ever had computer with lower latency in any application than when using my M1 Pro MacBook. Sure, it's 20 years of hardware innovation, but at least someone is doing something right.

Keyboard button press to screen response is ~100ms whereas an Apple IIe was 35ms.

How'd you measure that?

Re: Why isn’t new technology making us more productive?

#376
New technology is very obviously making us more productive in several different ways - the metric in the article is just wrong. I'm going to pick on something that people in the thread haven't mentioned that much: Logistics and online infrastructure.

I get every kind of thing possible delivered right to my door and this is made possible by improvements in logistics. Not having to spend my time going out shopping for these things gives me time which I can spend productively or on recreation at my option.

1) Medicine: When in the 80s or 90s if I needed medicine I would need to wait for a doctor's appointment, get a prescription, wait at the pharmacy to collect, now my doctor knows when I need a repeat, sends it electronically to my pharmacy and it's ready when I arrive (or I could have it delivered).

2) Groceries and household goods: Everyone from Amazon down to my local deli and bakery has a website where I can request goods, pay online and have them delivered within days or sometimes even same day. This wasn't possible in the 80s at the scale we have today. You had to shop in person or some companies used to have paper catalogues where you had to send in a form to order, wait days or weeks for goods to arrive. Not only that but repeat/subscription orders were extremely limited. Now I have repeat orders for everything from my dog's food to my razor blades. THings which were subscription services in the 80s are still available but have a much wider selection.

3) Services: Lots of "in person" services can now be delivered by video. My wife and lots of friends are professional musicians. In spite of the pandemic they were able to continue teaching over zoom. Their productivity would literally have been zero during the lockdowns as they would not have been able to work at all were it not for new technology. Likewise things like video consultations allow people access to doctors etc without the time that would otherwise be wasted on travel etc to get to the appointment.

Re: Why isn’t new technology making us more productive?

#377

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Collaborative editing is an essential task in my job. Go back twenty years and folks were emailing copies of copies of drafts back and forth. Today, two authors use two keyboards and two screens and just type. That's very different.

The vast majority of the world is still doing the emailing back and forth method.

So if their productivity isn't growing, it might be because those people aren't taking advantage of productivity multiplying software. But there's no question that the collaboration capabilities of these software increases productivity.

Re: Why isn’t new technology making us more productive?

#378
I literally don't even want to use a computer at all. I want a cheap powerful rototiller, and an herbicide that only targets bamboo, and a robot laser to zap snails and cabbage moths in my garden. But here I am like a schmuck putting out little bottle tops of beer for the snails to drown in, running around like a doofus with a butterfly net to catch moths, and breaking my back to dig up 2-foot-deep bamboo roots over 2 acres.

Fuck modern technology. I don't want to sit in front of a screen. I want to live life in the real world. Give me solutions to my problems, not distractions from them.

Re: Why isn’t new technology making us more productive?

#379
post #369

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Starry in Boston is around this perf and cost

Starry seems to charge $50 per month for 0.2 Gbit/second speeds. OP is claiming 50x faster speed at a lower price

Starry actually has way better speeds

Re: Why isn’t new technology making us more productive?

#380

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good points. Still, there are imperfections in the argument: safety, availability (very few could afford that flight in 1936, if I understand correctly), range (NY to LA or London would be entirely different, etc.).

The range question was addressed by 1960. Costs fell markedly from 1930 -- 1970. Far less so since. It's popular to point to how much airline ticket prices have fallen since dregulation (under Democratic president Carter) in 1979, without also noting that 1979 was a local price peak driven by the Iranian oil embargo of the same year. Safety has increased, of course. That's largely been a continuous function from the…

> Safety has increased, of course.

Come to think of it, security too. Hijackings weren't unusual news items in the 1970s; now, it's hard to remember the last one. And that partly explains the slower airport experience today (which is really due to nobody investing in the resources to speed it up).

> It's popular to point to how much airline ticket prices have fallen since dregulation (under Democratic president Carter) in 1979, without also noting that 1979 was a local price peak driven by the Iranian oil embargo of the same year.

A lot of those narratives are similar if one takes even a cursory look at the facts. As an aside (and IIRC), per the autobiography of former Fed chair Alan Greenspan, who was not a Democrat (and was a follower of Ayn Rand) and served in various roles under many presidents including Carter, deregulation began under Carter.

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