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Why isn’t new technology making us more productive?

nytimes.com

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Re: Why isn’t new technology making us more productive?

#171

Post by KronisLV »

SoftTalker wrote: post #133
angarg12 wrote: post #123

One thing I don't see mentioned often is that productivity in software development has skyrocketed, but it's hard to appreciate. Today's services are much more sophisticated and complex than just a decade ago. Even if some of that complexity is incidental and undesirable, it's undeniable that today a small team can pump out a much more refined app that entire companies did back then. This isn't only guess work, here…

Yes, but a person can write a paper just as well in Wordperfect 5 as the latest Google Doc or Office365 Word. How many millions of dev-hours have been expended on stuff that fundamentally doesn't do anything new ? Edit: saying they don't do anything new isn't right. They do, especially with regards to collaboration. What I really mean is that they don't make the essential task -- the actual writing -- much easier. Th…

> Saying they don't do anything new isn't right.

Perhaps it's possible that some people simply don't see the benefit of the newly added functionality, because they don't really use it?

For example, personally I'd be served perfectly well with something like LibreOffice, so from my point of view, all of these new solutions do not indeed do much new (that I'd benefit from) and sometimes do things worse (cloud based platform with all the drawbacks that come with it vs local software in open formats).

That's not to say that the point that you're making wouldn't be important, quite on the contrary - and even if the software doesn't do anything new, even in those cases one can make an argument for refinement being a worthy pursuit (as long as it's not a useless rewrite).

Perhaps text editing isn't the best example, given how different people's expectations can be in that regard.

Re: Why isn’t new technology making us more productive?

#172

Post by lotsofpulp »

throw8383833jj wrote: post #121
kylecordes wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The challenge with shelter is that it is fundamentally a positional good. Everyone wants to be within the x% most convenient, which is say, desirable, places to live. So as there are more and more people with more money to chase those limited "slots", they get more expensive. Making everyone worse off. The solution is to massively build many more new good places to live; but there are also enormous forces against tha…

Absolutely >>> The solution is to massively build many more new good places to live People underestimate the positive impact of this solution. It's not like we don't have the space. All that's lacking is the will.

Space is not just space. Space has qualities such as non humid climates, near mountains, beaches, access to potable water, and of course, political considerations.

Also, people like more space than less space so incumbents will fight against others coming in, unless the others are bringing benefits such as money or labor for the incumbents.

Re: Why isn’t new technology making us more productive?

#173

Post by wolverine876 »

SoftTalker wrote: post #133
angarg12 wrote: post #123

One thing I don't see mentioned often is that productivity in software development has skyrocketed, but it's hard to appreciate. Today's services are much more sophisticated and complex than just a decade ago. Even if some of that complexity is incidental and undesirable, it's undeniable that today a small team can pump out a much more refined app that entire companies did back then. This isn't only guess work, here…

Yes, but a person can write a paper just as well in Wordperfect 5 as the latest Google Doc or Office365 Word. How many millions of dev-hours have been expended on stuff that fundamentally doesn't do anything new ? Edit: saying they don't do anything new isn't right. They do, especially with regards to collaboration. What I really mean is that they don't make the essential task -- the actual writing -- much easier. Th…

> a person can write a paper just as well in Wordperfect 5 as the latest Google Doc or Office365 Word

That seems hard to believe; try printing, or formatting. It's like saying 'a person can fly just as well in a 1930s biplane or a current 737.' Sure, they both fly.

On the other hand, am I more productive in 2022 Emacs than I would be in 1985 Emacs?

Re: Why isn’t new technology making us more productive?

#174

Post by acjacobson »

Barrin92 wrote: post #122

Because new technology is as Thiel often quips limited to the world of bits rather than the world of atoms. Paul Krugman once asked, if you go into an average house right now and you take out all the screens, could you tell that you're not in the 80s? Gordon in the Rise and Fall of American Growth gives a similar example, what if you went into a time capsule between say 1890 and 1950 compared to 1960 and 2010? In one…

I mostly agree, though I think there are differences you'd notice rather quickly (but nothing as big as moving from 1890 to 1950)

If you removed all the screens you'd probably first notice what's missing as opposed to what's different. In many of today's homes you wouldn't see things like tape / record players, stereos, VCRs, telephones, books, maps, yellow pages, rolodexes, calendars - all of these having a digital replacement.

And depending on the affluence of the home you'd notice a lot more variety of specialty things - for example kitchen equipment (espresso machines, burr coffee grinders, instant pots, sous vide machines, mini blow torches, automatic ice cream makers). There are thousands of available board games now compared to the 80s - and it is super easy to have specialty hobby items as they're cheap and readily available. If you went to the grocery store you'd see a far greater variety of vegetables, prepared foods, cheeses, meats, "exotic" ingredients etc.

I think the big differences are around convenience, variety, and availability - and for whatever reason they don't feel quite as big, even though the work that goes into making that possible is astoundingly large and complex.

Re: Why isn’t new technology making us more productive?

#175

Post by dockd »

Barrin92 wrote: post #122

Because new technology is as Thiel often quips limited to the world of bits rather than the world of atoms. Paul Krugman once asked, if you go into an average house right now and you take out all the screens, could you tell that you're not in the 80s? Gordon in the Rise and Fall of American Growth gives a similar example, what if you went into a time capsule between say 1890 and 1950 compared to 1960 and 2010? In one…

How about money?

In 1960, you either had to have cash or find a place that took a check to make purchases. Maybe some places took a credit card. Ever have to wait in line behind someone that is writing a check? "Productive" won't come to mind.

To get that cash you had to walk into a bank during banking hours. Then we got ATMs and could get our money any time of day. No more cutting out of work to deposit that royalty check.

More places started taking cards as well as cash. I distinctly remember asking businesses if they took cards _before_ making a purchase. We still had holdouts like restaurants that didn't split the check.

Now look at 2010. Pay with cash/check/card. Wait a few more years and you can do this with your phone. Get your meal tab split however you like. Owe someone money? No more writing checks, going to the ATM, just hit up Venmo.

Now, what's the productivity measure in that? I have no idea.

Re: Why isn’t new technology making us more productive?

#176

Post by humanrebar »

SoftTalker wrote: post #133
angarg12 wrote: post #123

One thing I don't see mentioned often is that productivity in software development has skyrocketed, but it's hard to appreciate. Today's services are much more sophisticated and complex than just a decade ago. Even if some of that complexity is incidental and undesirable, it's undeniable that today a small team can pump out a much more refined app that entire companies did back then. This isn't only guess work, here…

Yes, but a person can write a paper just as well in Wordperfect 5 as the latest Google Doc or Office365 Word. How many millions of dev-hours have been expended on stuff that fundamentally doesn't do anything new ? Edit: saying they don't do anything new isn't right. They do, especially with regards to collaboration. What I really mean is that they don't make the essential task -- the actual writing -- much easier. Th…

Collaborative editing is an essential task in my job. Go back twenty years and folks were emailing copies of copies of drafts back and forth. Today, two authors use two keyboards and two screens and just type. That's very different.

Re: Why isn’t new technology making us more productive?

#177

Post by [deleted] »

Barrin92 wrote: post #122

Because new technology is as Thiel often quips limited to the world of bits rather than the world of atoms. Paul Krugman once asked, if you go into an average house right now and you take out all the screens, could you tell that you're not in the 80s? Gordon in the Rise and Fall of American Growth gives a similar example, what if you went into a time capsule between say 1890 and 1950 compared to 1960 and 2010? In one…

[deleted]

Re: Why isn’t new technology making us more productive?

#178

Post by musicale »

IshKebab wrote: post #132
Barrin92 wrote: post #122

Because new technology is as Thiel often quips limited to the world of bits rather than the world of atoms. Paul Krugman once asked, if you go into an average house right now and you take out all the screens, could you tell that you're not in the 80s? Gordon in the Rise and Fall of American Growth gives a similar example, what if you went into a time capsule between say 1890 and 1950 compared to 1960 and 2010? In one…

> could you tell that you're not in the 80s? Well yes, because we have solar panels and heat pumps and battery powered power tools and vacuum cleaners and dishwashers and microwave ovens and smart lights and ... You wouldn't expect walls and carpets to change.

Not to mention:

Ugly (but very bright and power efficient, and cooler) LED lighting. Bright blue power LEDs on everything. Less fluorescent, minimal incandescent lighting.

Everyone is working at home.

Few books, no newspapers or print magazines, no typewriters, maybe even no wired telephone.

The post office only delivers packages and "junk mail."

No "long distance" phone charges.

No ash trays.

New/improved appliances: air fryers, instant pot/automated pressure/multifunction cookers, high-efficiency washing machines, etc.. Fewer toaster ovens and gas ranges or ovens.

Mandatory smoke alarms and carbon monoxide alarms.

Lower power usage for most appliances.

No bottle returns. Much more "recycling" and industrial compost.

No large stereo systems, AM/FM radio, cassette players, or boom boxes. Fewer (and poorer quality) record players.

Home delivery of everything via amazon, grocery delivery, restaurant food delivery, etc.. UPS, FedEx and Amazon deliver many more packages than the USPS.

Fewer people actually own their houses.

Student loan debt. More monthly bills in general.

Re: Why isn’t new technology making us more productive?

#179

Post by musicale »

Retric wrote: post #164
kareemsabri wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> vacuum cleaners mainstream since at least the 1950s > dishwashers 1970s > microwave ovens available but fairly expensive in the 80s, ubiquitous in the 90s

The point was vacuums etc have gotten a lot better over time. Electric motors are noticeably lighter, more powerful, and more energy efficient today. Yes vacuums in the 1980’s worked but they where significantly heavier, louder, and far more power hungry not to mention more expensive. It might not seem like much but I remember the exhaust from the family vacuum being noticeably warm. It’s even more noticeable with co…

> finger saver shutoff

Probably a feature I wouldn't want to give up.

Re: Why isn’t new technology making us more productive?

#180

Post by lotsofpulp »

analog31 wrote: post #169
lotsofpulp wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> if you go into an average house right now and you take out all the screens, could you tell that you're not in the 80s? Yes. Even the cheapest house built to code will be noticeably better than one from 1980s. The quality of materials, technology of materials, wiring, plumbing, flooring, insulation, etc will all be better. > The difference between a car right now and a car 30 years ago is that you can now play angry…

My house was built in the early 60s, has hardwood flooring throughout, copper plumbing, the wiring is all in hard conduit, the 2x4's are actually a bit thicker than today's, and of a higher grade. The original windows are still functioning, though not as efficient as modern ones. The appliances are modern because they've all been replaced. Today's house in the same region uses lower grade lumber, carpeted floors, Rom…

You can still get those things from your 60s house, it will simply cost more (adjusted for inflation).

But I do not see how quality of life are any worse with LVT flooring instead of wood, or PEX plumbing instead of copper, or wiring in a hard conduit instead of not wiring in a hard conduit. I would even say quality of life is better. Why would I want to wax wood, and have a more difficult to repair floor. An LVT piece gets damaged, I just pop it out and put a new one in.

Effectively, advances in materials technology has made a home cheaper, and better in my opinion. I would buy a random 2022 house over a random 1960s house anyday.

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