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How This Ends

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Re: How This Ends

#471

Post by axiosgunnar »

lettergram wrote: post #313
matthewaveryusa wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Genuinely curious : Russia’s GDP is < 10% that of the US or China. What’s up with this fascination with Russia (economically speaking — the humanitarian tragedy they are creating is a different topic)? The only question is if they align with the west or with china —-they’ve already lost as a super power, and their best strategic choice is to become a prized and expensive proxy between the west and china. The thing is…

All GDP is not equal. As an example, Ireland’s GDP was ~1/3 tourism, with covid they lost that GDP. Russia GDP is primarily raw goods, commodities. They also have a decent domestic market for manufactured goods. Look up the global production of wheat, natural gas, oil, etc and look for Russia and Belarus. To put it bluntly, USA GDP is a mix and has everything from commodities to information tech to finance. Russia is…

> I see Russia winning on all fronts tbh.

I do not, and anyone else not trying to be contrarian and edgy on the back's of a humanitarian catastrophe does not either. Russia's goal was a blitzkrieg surprise win, measured in hours, taking over the capital and the government, before the West could even muster up sanctions. They have failed abysmally at that, and capturing a few towns in Eastern Ukraine (just a little bit more than they already had captured since 2014) is Putin's attempt to have something in his hands to present as a victory and hope not to get couped to death (a fate all warmongers rightfully deserve).

Russia most certainly isn't winning.

Re: How This Ends

#472

Post by [deleted] »

idiotsecant wrote: post #340
tenpies wrote: post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think there's even going back to pre-pandemic supply chains solely because how the West's cancel culture effectively ended globalization when Russia invaded Ukraine. There will be no global supply chain any more. Any country with a brain now knows they have to be completely independent of the West in every aspect. Sovereign assets must be within their borders. Currency reserves? Held at domestic banks as much…

I guess economic sanctions against belligerent aggressor nations is also 'cancel culture' now. Is that another one of those terms that is just slowly morphing to mean 'thing I don't like'?

[deleted]

Re: How This Ends

#473

Post by xchaotic »

fny wrote: post #467
credit_guy wrote: post #446

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If they hike the rates too much then debt servicing would be costly. The Fed doesn't care about the cost of servicing the debt. That's the US Treasury's job. By law, the Fed has the dual mandate to keep both inflation and unemployment low. That's it. Nothing to do with the cost of servicing the Government debt. If the interest on the Government debt becomes too high, nobody will point the finger at the Fed. If howe…

I don't buy this argument. There are good arguments to the contrary which Jerome can bring up and has at previous hearings. Say demand quiets but the price of inelastic goods (gas and food) continues to skyrocket due to greater demand from developing nations who demand more resources to have a better standard of living. How will hiking to 10% fix anything? Sure you'll kill demand, but you'll also kill financing suppl…

I actually agree that hiking too high is a very poor policy choice for a number of reasons but for your example of fuel, if you kill the demand for it, the price will not skyrocket. On the other hand, however this would also mean that the economy as a whole is dead so again not the best policy choice (but it is likely to rein in inflation)

Re: How This Ends

#474

Post by ketzo »

walleeee wrote: post #293
vintagedave wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So for non-finance-experts, what should we be doing with our money? Investing in what? Keeping in the bank? It sounds from your comment like there is _nothing_ that won't be devalued, even gold. Is real estate worthwhile? (Note: I am in the EU not US.)

instead of pursuing speculative gains consider investing it in yourself or in your immediate locale or region, in the economic and ecological transformation we all sorely need devaluation of everything is a consequence of unsustainable economics and the fix is not to find a convenient hidey-hole for your money but to invest time, money and attention building a future sans witless speculation, profligate consumption,…

I appreciate this comment. I think the way that it’s written might drive off, say, a more traditional conservative — but I think if rephrased, they would agree.

“Spend time at your church, and spend money to invest in a local private school” would line up perfectly w/ 75% of Republicans that I know, (and, if I may assume your views, probably does not line up with them); and yet I think it is a very similar line of thinking.

I am trying to orientate the way that I spend my money and my time more towards my local community. It’s surprisingly difficult. Not everyone does it. And we would be better off if they did!

Re: How This Ends

#475

Post by gonzo »

karpierz wrote: post #381
nostrademons wrote: post #338

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would've agreed with you until about 5 years ago. The reason I disagree with you now is because technology and methods of war-fighting have changed. Emerging defense technologies like drones, lasers, robots, micro-scale manufacturing, and self-driving vehicles - along with the latest generation of existing weaponry like MANPADS and anti-tank missiles - all preference the defender. They allow a group of relatively u…

> Emerging defense technologies like drones, lasers, robots, micro-scale manufacturing, and self-driving vehicles - along with the latest generation of existing weaponry like MANPADS and anti-tank missiles - all preference the defender. > They allow a group of relatively untrained and loosely organized defenders who know the terrain well to deploy extremely effective resistance against an attacker, as long as it's at…

> Russia is struggling at the moment not because defenders are inherently advantaged but because they're relying on conscripts and relatively untrained soldiers.

Yes; this, and all of NATO is assisting Ukraine with G-2 (intelligence) and G-4 (logistics).

Re: How This Ends

#476

Post by cma »

ajsnigrutin wrote: post #448
wonderwonder wrote: post #432

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not sure you are correct here. Ukraine war is in Europe, America's sphere of influence and features America's traditional enemy. America was involved in Afghanistan and Iraq which you claimed no one cared about. Russia and Ukraine produce a significant portion of the worlds food, energy and fertilizer supply. The current situations are caused by politicians but politicians from dozens of countries. Politicians chose…

> Ukraine war is in Europe so what... A country has a minority, minority wants to separate, the main country won't let them, and fights happen between the main country and the minority, a big player steps in and destroys the main country to "save the minority" (and gain whatever their geopolitical interest was). Kosovo, ukraine, same shit, different players. > The current situations are caused by politicians but poli…

> caused by the politicians directly, and not by covid/war/whatever, and sadly, they're the first that will have to go, if we want to return to somewhat normal future.

> Not really... in the past, the politicians were "removed" one way or another many many times,... this current peaceful era is more of an anomaly.

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say this poster seems to essentially be dog whistling for assassinations.

Re: How This Ends

#477

Post by oneoff786 »

TekMol wrote: post #235
proteal wrote: post #229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Risk in this context means uncertainty - since the government can print money it is always able to pay its debts. You might not get a great return on your investment, but the government always has the capability to pay you back. There’s little reward with no risk.

I disagree. When I lend 2022 dollars to the government, I give away a certain amount of buying power. I don't know if I will get that buying power back when I get my 2032 dollars. The government does not always have the capability to pay me back my buying power. It cannot create value at will. It can create money at will. But the more money it creates, the less value it has. So it cannot create value at will.

You don’t disagree, you just don’t understand basic financial terminology

Re: How This Ends

#478

Post by cwalv »

ethbr0 wrote: post #341
jbay808 wrote: post #337

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean that real estate prices get hit hard. The consequences of that may vary depending on where you are, what you've borrowed, and what you own.

Granted! I just wanted to call out that must-sell (2008, falling market prices, unaffordable adjustable high-rate mortgages, low inflation) is different than can-hold (falling market prices, affordable recent low-rate mortgages, high inflation). If you've got a fixed-rate mortgage at 3%, there are worse forms of debt...

And the must-sell, can-hold (and I'd add must-hold, where you can afford what you have but any buy+sell would be result in an untenable downgrade) statuses have a big impact on prevailing prices .. since you don't get the fire sell busts outside of must-sell

Re: How This Ends

#479

Post by vmception »

Animats wrote: post #424

What if the COVID epidemic doesn't end in this decade? The US continues to have about half a million dead per year, and a lot of lost productivity due to long COVID. This is the most likely scenario. What if the war in Europe doesn't end in this decade? The optimistic scenario is that Russia bites off some of Ukraine and we go back to a cold war, with everybody in Europe building up serious military power to keep Rus…

baby boomers and the greatest generation dying an additional half million per year accelerate the biggest wealth transfer in history - rebalancing portfolios to be demand for undervalued stocks and different consumptive spending patterns

Re: How This Ends

#480

Post by vmception »

WalterBright wrote: post #363
natly wrote: post #71

Getting really annoying to have to keep track of macro events affecting my life year after year instead of just being able to live a normal peaceful life.

The Federal Reserve Bank system was supposed to prevent busts. We've had some pretty big ones recently - 2000, 2008, 2022. Let's face it. The FRB cannot stop busts. The real reason for the FRB is so the federal government can inflate the currency.

Yes, there are limitations to the tools available to the Federal Reserve and what can be done with monetary policy. At the end of the day you are trying to control individual's behaviors with gravitational pulls of satellite objects, and that doesn't really work. The analogy continues as even astrology enthusiasts might do things because of the believed influence of a celestial body's location, but can really still do anything they want.
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