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Why is the nuclear power industry stagnant?

austinvernon.site

581–590 of 672 posts

Re: Why is the nuclear power industry stagnant?

#581
post #575

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, renewables would not be cheaper for Iceland. Solar potential that far north is minimal. Wind would be very intermittent and require vast importation of fossil fuels to fill in times of non-production. And if would have to be shipped in in LNG vessels. I am seriously skeptical of the claim that a renewable grid would be cheaper for Iceland. Do you have a source to back up this claim?

You seem unacquainted with the expression "most places". Do you really need it explained how Iceland differs from most places? And, intermittency does not, in fact , require importation of fossil fuels, as has been explained to you numerous times before.

Intermittency requires the use of dispatchable energy sources. This can be delivered through hydroelectric power, for those regions that have hydroelectric potential. But for those that don't have the right geography for hydroelectricity, fossil fuels are the only dispatchable source.

Energy storage could theoretically avoid the need for alternative energy sources during periods of non production. But storage solutions capable of being deployed at relevant scales only exist in white papers, as has been explained to you numerous times before.

Re: Why is the nuclear power industry stagnant?

#582
post #562

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would say that comparing the purchase of gas to the purchase of uranium is uninformed, if not dishonest, for two reasons: - Fuel costs for nuclear is only 15-20% of the total cost, half of which is the uranium itself [1]. For natural gas, the majority of the cost is the fuel, even during "normal" times. In other words, natural gas imports generate a lot more $ per GWh of energy produced, even if imported from the s…

> I would say that comparing the purchase of gas to the purchase of uranium is uninformed, if not dishonest, for two reasons: - Fuel costs for nuclear is only 15-20% of the total cost, half of which is the uranium itself [1]. For natural gas, the majority of the cost is the fuel, even during "normal" times What seems "uninformed, if not dishonest" to me is the argument that fuel price matters here. Imagine this: Your…

For Germany's risk, the the price doesn't make a big differencem, should Russia decide to cut off the supply.

As long as the supply is NOT cut off, it matters quite a lot what Germany is paying for it. If the choice (for a set period of energy supply) is to pay either 100 billion euros for natural gas, or 20 billion euroes for uranium, the difference is 80 billion euroes less that Russia could spend to keep their war machine running. That's as much as their peacetime yearly military budget.

As for Russia's enrichment capacity, that is something any advanced country could set up, just as several countries have deposites they could start mining. Ones mining and enrichment has started, it could be kept running for as long as needed.

For natural gas, on the other hand, there are fewer good sources. By far the cheapest source is from wherever it can be transported in pipes. Other countries can convert their gas to LNG for transport to Germany, but that also requires expansion of LNG facilities in both ends, and perhaps construction of more LNG ships.

I don't know which take longer, between LNG from other sources or uranium from other sources.

And even when the transfer has been made, natural gas is a more limited resource than uranium, so even if it is purchased from, say, Saudi Arabia, the global supply and demand situation isn't changed much, so Russia will still be able to find buyers for their gas. (For instance, Germany may start to buy up gas that would otherwise be exported to China. If so, China can just buy from Russia.)

This doesn't even start to go into having dependencies on fundamentalist islamic monarchies in the middle east. I would think it would be preferrable for Germany to import their energy from Canada and Australia, countries they that share most of Germany's values.

Finally, with nuclear there is always the option of setting up strategic fuel reserves. This would be analogous to strategic oil reserves, except with massively lower storage costs. Nuclear fuel is stable for 100s of years, and so dense that reserves able to last a few years could probably be fit in a single warehouse (or several small ones):

[1] http://lnsp.mit.edu/strategic-fuel-reserves

Re: Why is the nuclear power industry stagnant?

#583
post #563
post #506

Earlier quoted context omitted.

3 reasons, I suspect - if someone wants an enormous stockpile of uranium fuel they can probably do that. The volumes check out - uranium is very dense and so will not take up much space. I'm not sure if it has a shelf life, but being a rock I expect something can be sorted out. I can't pretend to know how feasible it is in practice, but long term strategic uranium stockpiles should be doable. Long enough to weather a…

I hope you noticed the news about Gazprom possibly intentionally keeping gas reserves in Germany low for months before the Russian invasion in preparation of said invasion. You can't make a strategic stockpile if your potential enemy is your supplier and preventively doesn't allow you make those stockpiles in the first place so that you didn't have this way out.

You could turn that on its head. Had Germany created uranium stockpiles in 2014, enough to last, say, 5 years, they would not be vulnerable to this tactic in the first place.

Re: Why is the nuclear power industry stagnant?

#584
post #272

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Okay how many people really believe in that stuff?

In my totally college graduate circle of ~30 yr old friends, amongst the females, most of whom work white collar jobs, 90%+ Goop is worth billions. People eat this stuff up.

That is depressing. Though I guess from a purely rational point of view religion is no different.

Re: Why is the nuclear power industry stagnant?

#585

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Question: How many people does coal burning kill a year?

Will putting $10^x in nuclear save more lives then putting $10^x into renewables,grid updates and batteries? You are proposing an intervention so it should be benchmarked against other interventions.

Hard to estimate that, when putting $10^x into nuclear for serious R&D may yield surprising results.

Also, why not benchmark $10^x in nuclear vs. $10^x in coal or fossil fuels?

Re: Why is the nuclear power industry stagnant?

#586
post #563

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hope you noticed the news about Gazprom possibly intentionally keeping gas reserves in Germany low for months before the Russian invasion in preparation of said invasion. You can't make a strategic stockpile if your potential enemy is your supplier and preventively doesn't allow you make those stockpiles in the first place so that you didn't have this way out.

You could turn that on its head. Had Germany created uranium stockpiles in 2014, enough to last, say, 5 years, they would not be vulnerable to this tactic in the first place.

And now we replay an earlier argument on if Germany would have continued with the renewable transition, we wouldn't need any stockpile oof gas or uran from Russia.

Re: Why is the nuclear power industry stagnant?

#587
post #563

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hope you noticed the news about Gazprom possibly intentionally keeping gas reserves in Germany low for months before the Russian invasion in preparation of said invasion. You can't make a strategic stockpile if your potential enemy is your supplier and preventively doesn't allow you make those stockpiles in the first place so that you didn't have this way out.

You could turn that on its head. Had Germany created uranium stockpiles in 2014, enough to last, say, 5 years, they would not be vulnerable to this tactic in the first place.

Considering that you can't use raw uranium but need fuel assemblies, you'd need a replacement manufacturer of fuel assemblies, not just a uranium stockpile. But of course Germany was scheduled to shut down its nuclear power plants in 2022-ish anyway so a stockpile would have been largely meaningless.

Re: Why is the nuclear power industry stagnant?

#588

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think you are confusing a conclusion, which can be rendered as a Yes or No decision No, the decision on what energy sources to use is not a Yes or No decision, unless you are willing to seriously reduce your energy consumption. This is more like a budgeting process, where the total has already been decided. Just like in a budgeting process, where you have to choose between welfare, healthcare, defence, environmen…

> the decision on what energy sources to use is not a Yes or No decision This is not exactly what I meant. With "can be rendered as a Yes or No decision" I meant that any more-or-less question "can be refomulated, so that someone can vote either in favour or against", which is what happens when a debate needs to be brought to a practical conclusion. (Well, there is of course also the option to abstain from voting, bu…

I will write two answers to this, as I think it has split into two topics, first about the need for education.

> We hear that radioactive ceasum is still a problem with mushrooms and wild boars from the Bavarian Forest. The concept of its accumulation in the food chain is common knowledge.

I did a quick google of this, and found this article:

https://www.bfs.de/EN/topics/ion/environment/foodstuffs/mush...

According to the article (or rather one of the linked papers), the mean radiation level for some sample of meat was 4340 Bq/kg = 0.05mSv/kg. (EDIT, mSv, not mv)

Accoring to this overview, cancer risk is not measureable below 100mSv, and gradually increasing from there:

https://www.radiationanswers.org/radiation-and-me/effects-of....

Taken together, that means that in order to have any measureable increased risk of radiation, you need to heat 2000 kg of that kind of meat.

The maximum radiation level of meat to be sold, seems to be 600Bq/kg. At this level, you have to eat 10000kg before there is any increased risk.

By comparison, massive amounts of air polution from coal and gas plants, as well as transportation is allowed. According to this article, in Germany alone, there are 62300 yearly deaths from air polution:

https://epha.org/eu-air-quality-laws-protect-our-health-germ....

Most "normies" that I know, if presented with the first article, would get the impression that eating boar would be quite risky, and many would stop eating boar because of it. If they read the last one, they would just shrug. Pollution is not nice, but it is far less scary than those becquerels.

While in in fact, if every person in Berlin would eat 5 big fat boars (200kg meat each) from the contaminated area, the risk (not counting risk from obesity) would be insignificant compared to the air they breathe every day.

When presented this way, I definitely would count this as disinformation.

> The tale of a general public that had been mislead with propaganda is a pattern of argument that is typically used by anti-democratic movements.

When I claim that the general public is being mislead, it is because I crunch the numbers (hopefully without miscalculating). Air polution very measurably increases risk of death from cancer and a number of other diseases, while the case provided for Boars, for normal intakes of Boar meat, is extremely unlikely to be measurable.

Obviously (I hope) I do not suggest that we set democracy aside. But it wouldn't hurt if educated people were more active in spreading more accurate information, to counteract what I see as fear-mongering.

Re: Why is the nuclear power industry stagnant?

#589

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's what types of storage we have available and their costs and benefits: https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2019/07/f65/Stora... Depending on how reliable you need your energy you'll need various energy storage mixes. Judging by the uk, wind can spend an entire month producing at 15% of it's normal output and can spend days at 3%. So you need a LOT of storage if you want to be sure the lights stay on. In…

There have been nearly no investment on energy storage in our history (for very obvious reasons). Thus, any such report done with information collected by looking at history is prone to be completely wrong. (And yes, we are going to need a lot of storage. On amounts close to 1/3 of our daily generation capacity. We also need some long-term and transportable solutions. And yes, there are currently no options on the ma…

> There have been nearly no investment on energy storage in our history (for very obvious reasons).

By "nearly no" do you mean "tens, possibly hundreds of billions"? Batteries alone have had tens of billions in investment in the last few years.

> On amounts close to 1/3 of our daily generation capacity.

What kind of mix and overproduction are you thinking of that gets you ratios that low without brownouts? I suspect that if you want to live off wind and solar you'll need a week of capacity to get no brownouts when it's still and gray for a week unless you get nameplate capacity 10x your average needs.

Re: Why is the nuclear power industry stagnant?

#590

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can understand reluctance to build more nukes, but Germany shutting down nukes that were already paid for and working seems crazy. disclaimer: I'm pro nuke if we can do it right, a la LFTR/SMRs etc.

> reluctance to build more nukes, but Germany shutting down nukes that were already paid for and working seems crazy Is this statement about climate change, or nuclear safety, or a bit of both? At least for those worrying about safety, isn't this simply the wrong way round? New nuclear plants would have to be constructed to the latest safety standards, older ("paid-for") plants are the ones which were built in an era…

The reluctance refers to those that are scared of nukes (I am not) or that they've historically been way over budget (understandable).

The crazy bit is climate change -- they intentionally moved backwards to more coal.

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