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Why is the nuclear power industry stagnant?

austinvernon.site

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Re: Why is the nuclear power industry stagnant?

#571
post #441
post #207

Its stagnant because public opinion has been scared with stories of Fukushima and Chernobyl. Ppl dont understand that we can build reactors that not only can be powered up bu old nuclear waste but also are physically impossible to explode. But yea.. lets subsidize coal and oil industries more putting one more nail to humanity coffin. Corrupt politicians and stupid ppl voting for them are the issue, like always.

> Ppl dont understand that we can build reactors that not only can be powered up bu old nuclear waste but also are physically impossible to explode. we would be able to yes, but we can't. not because it's technically impossible, but because people are stupid. fukushima did not happen because it wasn't safe, fukushima happend because people were stubborn. Tepco knew what will happen and dismissed it because they were…

Every grid needs a stable source of electricity. Wind and Solars are not stable sources of electricity.

If its not windy -> turbines are useless. If its cloudy -> solars are almost useless.

Nuclear Plant on the other hand produces stable amount of electricity everyday.

And molten salt reactors are resistant to human stupidity. Its literally impossible to cause a disaster with this type of reactors. Its physically not possible to do anything that will cause the core to meltdown.

Re: Why is the nuclear power industry stagnant?

#572

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> so Europe's dependence on Russia is even stronger for Uranium than for gas I’d argue that it’s not about % coming from Russia that reflects dependence, it’s how easy you could switch to another supplier. How difficult would it be to find a different provider for that Uranium?

However nobody talks about blocking Russian Uranium imports, while oil and gas is all over the news. Admittedly the values we are talking about are much lower, but if it's easy to switch suppliers it should be a nobrainer, no?

What makes you think nobody talks about that? I know that this has been a topic in my country (which operates six VVER reactors). We've definitely been talking about this.

> but if it's easy to switch suppliers it should be a nobrainer, no?

Unfortunately it's not that easy since Russians control over 40% of fuel production capacity, and additionally Western manufacturers need to learn to manufacture Russian fuel assemblies and test them and certify them for safe operation first, so even if Western production capacity were sufficient, there would probably still be some delay in the switch.

Re: Why is the nuclear power industry stagnant?

#573
post #560

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Quite the contrary. Places where geothermal is accessible, like Iceland, have extremely cheap Energy costs. That's why they export a lot of bulk aluminum [1]. It's very energy intensive - it basically involves arcing electricity through rocks - so much so that aluminum ore is shipped to Iceland to get processed there. 1. https://commons.m.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Iceland_Export_Tre...

Yet, Iceland's energy infrastructure was, as I said , mostly built before energy from renewables got even cheaper than theirs. Very little new geothermal is being built because it cannot compete, most places.

No, renewables would not be cheaper for Iceland. Solar potential that far north is minimal. Wind would be very intermittent and require vast importation of fossil fuels to fill in times of non-production. And if would have to be shipped in in LNG vessels.

I am seriously skeptical of the claim that a renewable grid would be cheaper for Iceland. Do you have a source to back up this claim?

Re: Why is the nuclear power industry stagnant?

#574
post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> because the industry is a regulatory hell That's weird, since many believe that the US nuclear industry is a fine example of regulatory capture.

You know that's the same thing, right?

I thought it meant the opposite, especially in context. Surely the problem of US nuclear construction doesn't lie in the NRC making concessions.

Re: Why is the nuclear power industry stagnant?

#575
post #560

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yet, Iceland's energy infrastructure was, as I said , mostly built before energy from renewables got even cheaper than theirs. Very little new geothermal is being built because it cannot compete, most places.

No, renewables would not be cheaper for Iceland. Solar potential that far north is minimal. Wind would be very intermittent and require vast importation of fossil fuels to fill in times of non-production. And if would have to be shipped in in LNG vessels. I am seriously skeptical of the claim that a renewable grid would be cheaper for Iceland. Do you have a source to back up this claim?

You seem unacquainted with the expression "most places". Do you really need it explained how Iceland differs from most places?

And, intermittency does not, in fact, require importation of fossil fuels, as has been explained to you numerous times before.

Re: Why is the nuclear power industry stagnant?

#576

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Germany is paying hundreds of millions of euros per day to Russia for the gas. In March EU total payment was 700 million per day. This completely dwarfs any even billion dollar level support given to Ukraine. This is one quick graph that I could find. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1281568/daily-russian-ga... On Friday, Russia stopped gas exports to Finland. Electricity export to (and import from) Finland was st…

Don't pat yourself on the back too hard. Finland just now cancelled its contract to build the Hanhikivi plant, of which a third would have been owned by Russia. The contract was finalized in late 2013, more than eight years ago. The stated reason for the cancellation was not political independence/saftey but the expected inability of Rosatom to deliver the project and increased risks due to the attack on Ukraine ( ht…

The Hanhikivi plant was controversial even before Russia's latest full on attack into Ukraine. It also wasn't moving very fast because the builder was unable to supply precise enough plans to STUK to move on. STUK is the government watchdog and is considered very strict.

The reactor dome by the way would have been forged in Ukraine.

There is a two reactor plant in Loviisa that uses the Soviet VVER technology (but not Soviet automation). It has worked very well. Olkiluoto plant's reactors 1 and 2 are from Sweden, and have had extremely high uptime. Both plants were built in the seventies. Olkiluoto 3 is the infamous French EPR that is finally coming online now.

Hanhikivi would have used an eastern-western mix of technology like Loviisa.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanhikivi_Nuclear_Power_Plant https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loviisa_Nuclear_Power_Plant

Re: Why is the nuclear power industry stagnant?

#577

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A sackcloth and ashes approach to civilization, where nuclear's low land use is preferred because we're also going to (for example) ban agriculture because it uses land, is a nonstarter. Society has decided that agriculture is ok, because the concerns of people are more important than the putative concerns of unfettered nature. And if agriculture is ok, so is the land use of PV and wind (which produce much more value…

At global scale , these kinds of things end up mattering a huge amount. This is the basis of Komanoff's "price scales primarily with fleet size" argument. No one remembers that rule, but at planetary scale even seemingly small externalities end up driving costs. Case in point: do you know how many individual anti-wind organizations there are in Germany?

No, they don't. At a global scale, land is enormously available. So are the materials from which renewable energy sources can be built. Are you worried about running out of silicon, iron, or aluminum? If so, stop being silly. Focusing on these is just to ignore the physical realities of what's available to work with.

Re: Why is the nuclear power industry stagnant?

#578

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What nonsense. I'm not denying power or energy density of nuclear is higher, I'm denying that this bare fact is relevant to any decision that we might make about using nuclear to power civilization. And no, power and energy density do not determine cost, in general. They might if all else were equal, but all else is NOT equal. Renewable sources can omit entire categories of equipment that thermal power plants require…

> Why are you choosing a meaningless metric to decide on the technology? Learn to express yourself better. It's like building a house - your first choice is what ground you build it on - quick sands, swamp, or solid rock. If you don't take power density into consideration you're not going to make the right choice and then all your efforts will be meaningless. Denmark is almost 100% renewable (it imports some). France…

Why focus on energy or power density (ostensibly because they affect cost) when you can focus on cost itself? The answer to that is because if you focus on cost, nuclear loses big, so the dishonest nuclear proponent has to obfuscate things and pretend that individual input that indirectly affects cost (along with many other inputs) is somehow dominant.

Re: Why is the nuclear power industry stagnant?

#579

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Noone says you don't have to use nuclear. People say that building nuclear against climate change is an inferior intervention to fix climate change.

Actually Germans say that a lot and try to enforce it through the EU. They never found support for a complete ban but they're thwarting progress as much as they can. And then you have the Austrians who try to cancel our nuclear power plants directly through activism, etc.

I read that debate about what is supposed to be green just a political struggle to get a larger share of pot of money distributed by being anti-nuclear they could "compromise to" natural gas being allowed as green.

Re: Why is the nuclear power industry stagnant?

#580

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But when it comes nuclear power vs coal and gas, the only data I can find seems to make this issue completely black and white (at least for developed countries). I think you are confusing a conclusion, which can be rendered as a Yes or No decision, with the reasons that lead to such a conclusion. Even if your own conclusion is very clear, the process of weighing pros and cons can still be quite complex and difficul…

> I think you are confusing a conclusion, which can be rendered as a Yes or No decision No, the decision on what energy sources to use is not a Yes or No decision, unless you are willing to seriously reduce your energy consumption. This is more like a budgeting process, where the total has already been decided. Just like in a budgeting process, where you have to choose between welfare, healthcare, defence, environmen…

> the decision on what energy sources to use is not a Yes or No decision

This is not exactly what I meant. With "can be rendered as a Yes or No decision" I meant that any more-or-less question "can be refomulated, so that someone can vote either in favour or against", which is what happens when a debate needs to be brought to a practical conclusion. (Well, there is of course also the option to abstain from voting, but the question is nevertheless finally a Yes/No decision.)

> a country is not likely to significantly lower their energy consumption.

There are already a lot of laws and regulation targeting energy and resource consumption in the EU. And a lot of new ones are on the agenda. However, there might exist conflicting goals: for example, shifting towards electrical cars to lower CO2 output results in larger energy consumption, because an electrical car is much heavier than a comparable conventional one. It may not always be the best solutions that end up being implemented, but the general direction is to look not only at renewable energy, but also at energy and resource conservation.

> Similarly, with waste, if they see a picture of low level radioactive waste form 20 years back, they think it is the same as fuel that was taken out if the reactor the day before.

I think that a lot of people in Germany understand the general concept between low-level, medium-level and high-level radioactive waste quite well. My generation and people older than me were victims of Tschernobyl. We were all told that radioactive iodine was an immediate threat, but will become irrelevant very quickly. We hear that radioactive ceasum is still a problem with mushrooms and wild boars from the Bavarian Forest. The concept of its accumulation in the food chain is common knowledge.

> Similary, they tend to think that if the waste is dangerous for 100 000 years, it is almost as dangerous after 50000 years as it is after 50 years. While in reality, around 300 years is what it takes for it to become "relatively safe", even if it is still not completely harmless.

The problem for long term storage of high-level radioactive waste is that after a few hundred years, when all short and medium active material has more or less decayed, the decrease rate itself almost stoped to decrease further. The waste is then about 100 times less active than initially, but it will take between 100,000 and 1,000,000 years for the waste to reach the activity level of natural uranium ore, which itself is not yet harmless.

> In other words, the general public is relatively easy to mislead with propaganda.

We are talking here about a decade long debate in an open society, where not only ordinary people, but thousands and thousands of expert of different related fields and various opinions participated. The tale of a general public that had been mislead with propaganda is a pattern of argument that is typically used by anti-democratic movements. The general public does not consist of stupid individuals. The general public of an open society is a collective rationality where people with all their different backgrounds and level of expertise can freely debate the issues that concern everyone. Its conclusions might not be perfect and not always be right, but it is the best we can hope for. If the arguments you favour do not get through, it is not because of propaganda, but because they have not (yet) been convincing. Try again. There is always another election.

> An the topic of Nuclear energy vs Coal/Gas (after actually doing some investigation), the data I have been able to find, indicate that the case is almost as clear as Evolution vs Intelligent Design. The difference is simply so large (around 2 orders of magnitude or more), that even if there is significant bias/skew in the data I have available, it is not likely to be enough to alter the conclusion.

I would say that "Nuclear energy vs Coal/Gas" is a debate of the past. Germany wants to switch completely to renewable electrical energies by 2035 (all energies by 2045). This renders plans for new nuclear power plants obsolete. Realistically it might take one or two decades to go from planning to operation. So when the plant starts it will already be obsolet.

You might argue that in the light of the current situation, Germany's last three nulcear plants to be shut down this years should run a little longer. This option was briefly considered even by the Minister of Economic Affairs, Robert Habeck from the Green party, but quickly dropped again. There were a few voices in favour of such a proposal from the industry and the Conservative opposition, but others, even from this circles, said that it was too late to realistically postpone the shutdowns already scheduled and underway. So after a few days, no one followed up on this idea.

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