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Why is the nuclear power industry stagnant?

austinvernon.site

411–420 of 672 posts

Re: Why is the nuclear power industry stagnant?

#411

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually China seems to be the only country where nuclear is alive and thriving. There were some hiccups for some years due to lack of experience with 3G designs, as well as US sanctions (forcing some companies to drop France's AP-1000 design and to design their own), but they have now solved those problems and are ramping up nuclear fast because they are serious about 2030 peak carbon target. Source: David Fishman,…

UAE are building nuclear plants as well.

UAE's plants are, certainly in retrospect and probably earlier, a mistake. They produce output at something like 5x the cost per kWh of what utility scale solar can achieve there (about $0.013/kWh for large utility scale solar). In the time between the process to build those plants was started and when they came online, solar has crashed in cost by nearly an order of magnitude.

Re: Why is the nuclear power industry stagnant?

#412

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "Actually, Germany did not have a long term increase in coal/gas due to the nuclear shut down but a decrease" > "Gas production did grow but mainly to offset declines in coal" This is dishonest at two levels. First, nuclear power fell and, at the same time, renewables and gas sharply rose in Germany's energy mix. Power is fungible. It is not as if power generated by renewables substitutes for nuclear, but power gen…

Renewables rose by far more than gas did. The overall market also grew. If you take coal and gas together and look at overall fossil based generation, it declined and continues to decline. The unspoken implication of nuclear proponents is that Germany started putting out more CO2 because they shut down nuclear. The reality is that there was a continuous decline in fossil fuel related emissions related to electricity…

> "If you take coal and gas together and look at overall fossil based generation, it declined and continues to decline."

In absolute terms the combined capacity of coal and gas is the same now as it was in 2010. It has fallen as a share of the total because output has increased.

https://www.cleanenergywire.org/sites/default/files/styles/p...

> "The unspoken implication of nuclear proponents is that Germany started putting out more CO2 because they shut down nuclear. The reality is that there was a continuous decline in fossil fuel related emissions related to electricity production."

I am not a partisan in this argument. But clearly that's a strawman. The argument is that if Germany hadn't taken its nuclear capacity offline then it would have been in a better position to more rapidly decarbonise its energy mix. In one simple sense that's true: nuclear energy is clean, and so by getting rid of it you need to add more clean energy that you would have otherwise to decarbonise. That is, Germany would not have had to increase gas imports at the rate it did, and would not have had to drag out its coal phase-out.

Showing that fossil fuels have decreased in relative terms as a share of the energy mix does not show that it would not have fallen faster with nuclear online.

> "There are no international deadlines other than what was agreed at Cop 26, which thanks to China and India avoids any big explicit commitments."

I was writing in a hurry. I meant that the most respected models of the pathways to net zero tell us that coal needs to be eradicated across advanced economies by 2030. The IEA's Net Zero scenario, which is widely taken as a benchmark by policymakers around the world, says just that. Everyone in Germany knew their original 2038 phase-out date flouted their responsibilities.

Re: Why is the nuclear power industry stagnant?

#414

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These points are either inaccurate or irrelevant We can not build nuclear at $10/GW, that's a fantasy. The use of the land is quite different too. When a wind farm "uses" 100x-1000x the land (and I am not accepting those numbers, just quoting you), that land is still available for other uses. The fraction of "used" land is so neglible as to not matter at all. So to discuss it in the same terms as a reactor doesn't ma…

> land is still available for other uses How many uses are there that exclude prolonged presence of living things?

Wind turbines are often sited on operating farms. The point that was being made is that while a field of wind turbines may be spread over a large area, most of that area can still be farmed.

Re: Why is the nuclear power industry stagnant?

#415

I can answer this in one word: privatisation. The neo-liberal economy is at total odds with this industry. For a private enterprise to succede at nuclear power, it would take someone crazy and with very deep pockets like Elon Musk, but even then, his model wouldn't work as failure is not an option. You can't fail and iterate. So what we have instead is privately run nuclear power plants, that are entirely publicly fu…

I agree. France was lucky and smart enough to socialize the profits of nuclear, and the public there is still mostly supportive.

People may say that they worry about the risks, but that's just a rationalization presented to others.

Re: Why is the nuclear power industry stagnant?

#416

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Apparently , wind+solar don't work at night (...) This line of argument is either disingenuous or ignorant. https://m.dw.com/en/new-energy-storage-facilities-in-high-de... https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-storage

A whole 5GW in the entire world? Crazy, it almost matches the 400GW of just nuclear output, and the many more of every other power source. Wind + solar isn't a reliable energy source, period. You need a base load, whether that comes from hydroelectric, nuclear or, unfortunately, fossil fuels. Wind and solar are great at topping off things and should be deployed as much as possible for individuals to reduce the demand…

The whole argument about base supply (not load), only made sense in the old times when there were expensive variable supplies which could quickly follow load, and cheap base supplies which would run constantly at the same output (typically coal, nuclear...).

The situation completely changed now the highly variable loads are cheaper now than the former base supplies. So you would always use your money to overbuild on the variable supplies not build constant supplies. The thing is solar and wind don't compete with gas, they compete with coal solar. However with the way solar and wind costs are going, we will likely reach a point where it makes more sense to overbuild so much to even cover the load peaks instead of using gas peakers.

Re: Why is the nuclear power industry stagnant?

#417

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's your favorite or most closely watched Gen IV reactor? Figure you'd be one to ask.

I think we should be building the best LWRs right now to decarbonize immediately: ABWR, APR-1400, AP1000. My favorite decarbonize rapidly at scale idea is to build a shipyard-based nuclear reactor gigafactory and mass-produce floating PWRs. (This was actually almost done in the 1970s in Jacksonville Florida. They had a manufacturing license from the NRC, the world's largest gantry crane installed and, everything [1])…

Salt water + molten salt sounds like a real headache to maintain.

Re: Why is the nuclear power industry stagnant?

#418

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1 event does not make a rule. French nuclear reactors were turned off for maintenance, yes, but over the past 30 years, it is clearly Germany depending on French power

Germany is a net electricity exporter: https://www.bmwk.de/Redaktion/EN/Infografiken/stromaustausch... Unplanned shutdowns are a increasing occurrence in France because of aging reactors and overheating/freezing rivers

Doesn't matter at all. Germany is exporting tons of underpriced (or even negatively priced) electricity in peak season - when everybody has more than enough of their own, so people are using it only to mine Bitcoin and other non essential usecases - and then there would be a blackout off-season if it wasn't for neighboring nuclear power plants, gas and coal. Very weird for a country that has its mouth full with greenness and renewability.

Re: Why is the nuclear power industry stagnant?

#419
The nuclear energy industry needs to lay down the pipe dreams of long building times and long CAPEX expenses

Nobody is paying for this anymore. "Oooh but the efficiency" the efficiency of something that produces 0kWh is 0

Nuclear needs its SpaceX moment where you attack the costs and processes (without compromising safety). As SLS has shown, building on top of old projects is just a money sink.

Re: Why is the nuclear power industry stagnant?

#420

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Germany could have cancelled their nuclear shutdown process. But saving face is more important than Ukrainian lives.

Such a simplification is very hypocritical in my eyes. Even Ukraine itself is not shutting down the Russian gas pipeline on its territory "to save Ukrainian lives". And the sanctions against Russia are not so complete that the West is blocking every cooperation. For example, no one wanted to immediately stop the cooperation regarding the International Space Station "to save Ukrainian lives", because the cost would ha…

Germany is paying hundreds of millions of euros per day to Russia for the gas. In March EU total payment was 700 million per day. This completely dwarfs any even billion dollar level support given to Ukraine. This is one quick graph that I could find. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1281568/daily-russian-ga...

On Friday, Russia stopped gas exports to Finland. Electricity export to (and import from) Finland was stopped earlier already. Was Finland in a crisis? No, most people didn't even notice, because Finland had prepared for this. It certainly would have been convenient to build our heating to depend more on cheap Russian gas, but it was restrained by law, because of the risks. Finland was willing to tolerate the inconvenience of higher energy prices, to keep its political independence and safety.

But it seems Germany is not yet capable of this introspection. Germany has been too lazy and corrupt and has let itself become very dependent on cheap Russian gas. Now it's saying "we can't do anything, we are too dependent". It's not the world's fault, it's the fault of past German governments and German voters.

Germany is an industrialized and rich nation. It can start building heat pumps if the people are ready to do it. The very recent nuclear shutdown decision can also be reversed. But it would first require admitting that you have made serious errors in the recent past and then make a turn around on those decisions.

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