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Why is the nuclear power industry stagnant?

austinvernon.site

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Re: Why is the nuclear power industry stagnant?

#341

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Germany can't wave a magic wand and switch off Russian imports overnight. But they did just commit a few hundred billion to accelerate their plans to get rid of coal and gas based generation. That's a direct consequence of the Ukrainian situation. Like the US, Germany was overly depending on cheap gas until recently. Now that it has to import the gas in liquid form from the US (and a few other places), it's going to…

Germany could have cancelled their nuclear shutdown process. But saving face is more important than Ukrainian lives.

There were plans to restart nuclear reactors. The operators themselves declined this plans.

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-...

Re: Why is the nuclear power industry stagnant?

#342
post #334

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ignorant? Energy storage is not a short or medium term solution. Pumped hydro is already maxxed out pretty much everywhere it's possible as not all dams are suitable -- in fact most aren't. Battery storage for large grids currently covers minutes of use, a few hours may be attainable. But wind can be absent for days or weeks, and there's such a thing as winter when you're as far from the equator as Germany. Ignorant.…

> Pumped hydro is already maxxed out pretty much everywhere it's possible The Australian National University recently disagreed: https://www.anu.edu.au/news/all-news/anu-finds-530000-potent... . But even very large amounts of pumped hydro storage are probably not the cost optimum -- according to https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S001429211... , the optimum lies in the direction of significant overgene…

> The Australian National University recently disagreed

This is a worldwide assessment. Look at Northern Europe, and notice the complete lack of dots on the map.

> Interestingly enough for Germany, the period less likely to suffer from prolonged lack of wind is winter

Want you bet your freezing bottom on it? "Less likely" does not cut it for a vital commodity. Famine, drowning and thirst also occur when a commodity that's otherwise readily available on average isn't. They're considered somewhat unpleasant.

Re: Why is the nuclear power industry stagnant?

#343

I don't think it's stagnant. I continue to see stuff like small modular reactors making progress. The obvious reason why it doesn't get more play is because it doesn't serve anybody's political goals. Renewables and carbon taxes or other measures to try and reduce quality of life (or opposition to those) get attention because they have good political value. Actually spending money and generating sustainable power, no…

Nuclear power is a terribly difficult engineering problem. You can't just put a nuclear power plant in your backyard. You can do that with wind or solar though.

Carbon taxes are hated by average citizens more than nuclear power because of the evil tax word.

Re: Why is the nuclear power industry stagnant?

#344
post #328
post #324

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nuclear power plants can't be used for residential heating, residential cooking, chemistry, and industrial processes like making glass for solar panels. At least not without changing the infrastructure for that completely. Which is not going to happen overnight. And even then it can't replace chemistry. So, no, Germany couldn't have. No matter how many Internet armchair commenters repeat this.

Nuclear power for residential and commercial real estate heating is pretty simple if it were accepted. Main issue is distance between production and consumption and then delta of heat. But later could be solved with heat pumps.

Up to 30km is fine, there are usually enough towns and villages within that radius.

Re: Why is the nuclear power industry stagnant?

#345
post #16

I don't think it's stagnant. I continue to see stuff like small modular reactors making progress. The obvious reason why it doesn't get more play is because it doesn't serve anybody's political goals. Renewables and carbon taxes or other measures to try and reduce quality of life (or opposition to those) get attention because they have good political value. Actually spending money and generating sustainable power, no…

Small modular reactors don’t actually solve any significant issues for the nuclear industry. Construction costs are dwarfed by operating costs and the idea that N small reactors with N times as many parts will somehow require less maintenance is wishful thinking. They very well could be slightly cheaper over the first 15 years, but nuclear reactors are designed for ~50 year lifespans and are really expensive to decom…

Most SMR are sealed designs that can't be opened before their 20 year lifetime is over.

Re: Why is the nuclear power industry stagnant?

#346

Earlier quoted context omitted.

EU law arguably has a greater weight than individual constitutions now. There are some countries like Poland which claim to not accept that, but the principle of EU law supremacy has become generally accepted (even without a referendum in that sense...)

France doesn't accept EU law supremacy either despite being a founding member.

EU law is always supreme. If a law in France violates EU law, then any foreign EU national in France with standing can use French courts to have the law annulled.

> The revolutionary case of NV Algemene Transport-Expedite Onderneming Van Gend en Loos v Nederlandse Administratie der Belastingen (9), addressed this matter, but also the issue of supremacy. In regard to Article 12 EEC (now Article 30 TFEU), The ECJ held ‘the objective of the EEC treaty… implies that this treaty is more than an agreement which merely creates obligations on individuals but is also intended to confer upon them rights’ (10), giving the article direct effect. This permits the rights of individuals and organisations to be enforceable in national courts, as a way of creating uniformity amongst member states to maximise the efficiency and application of EU law, despite the fact that the treaty articles generally regulated trade between member states [0].

This is known as the Doctrine of Direct Effect. The ECJ is effectively a 'supreme court' for the EU.

[0]: https://www.lawteacher.net/free-law-essays/european-law/eu-l...

Re: Why is the nuclear power industry stagnant?

#347

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_Germany Actually, Germany did not have a long term increase in coal/gas due to the nuclear shut down but a decrease. Coal has been in a slow but steady decline in Germany (mainly due to cost); which is on track to decline all the way to 0 as Germany is committing to getting rid of coal based production completely by 2035 or so. Gas production did grow but mainly to offset decli…

> "Actually, Germany did not have a long term increase in coal/gas due to the nuclear shut down but a decrease" > "Gas production did grow but mainly to offset declines in coal" This is dishonest at two levels. First, nuclear power fell and, at the same time, renewables and gas sharply rose in Germany's energy mix. Power is fungible. It is not as if power generated by renewables substitutes for nuclear, but power gen…

Renewables rose by far more than gas did. The overall market also grew. If you take coal and gas together and look at overall fossil based generation, it declined and continues to decline. The unspoken implication of nuclear proponents is that Germany started putting out more CO2 because they shut down nuclear. The reality is that there was a continuous decline in fossil fuel related emissions related to electricity production. So, who is being "dishonest" here?

Gas "sharply" rose to much less than the coal and nuclear reductions combined. Renewables are on track to grow to about an order of magnitude more than the nuclear capacity Germany ever had. New gas plants might still happen as that is part of their plan to decommission coal. Or at least it was until a few months ago. But it will probably never grow to close to the level of coal production Germany had 12 years ago when it started shutting down nuclear plants.

The decision to get rid of coal by 2030 is fairly recent. There are no international deadlines other than what was agreed at Cop 26, which thanks to China and India avoids any big explicit commitments. However, there is a lot of peer pressure especially in Europe to clean up the energy sector. Germany actually resisted that peer pressure quite long. E.g. the reason brown coal is still a thing in Germany is because until a few years ago, the CDU essentially blocked all attempts to kill that massively polluting industry to protect jobs. I think at the time of the Paris agreements they were thinking/hoping a 2050-2060 time frame. Germany even opened new coal plants as recent as two years ago. The ambition levels have of course increased dramatically in the last few years; mainly due to the success of renewables. Mostly this is driven by simple economics. People like cheap wind and solar energy. Nuclear they don't like for lots of reasons; including the bad economics.

Re: Why is the nuclear power industry stagnant?

#348
post #298

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Batteries work at night.

1. They need 2-3x renewable capacity to charge 2. You need to buy the batteries

Aren't batteries at something like >90% efficiency? Were does the 2-3x energy come from?

Re: Why is the nuclear power industry stagnant?

#349
post #275

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_Germany Actually, Germany did not have a long term increase in coal/gas due to the nuclear shut down but a decrease. Coal has been in a slow but steady decline in Germany (mainly due to cost); which is on track to decline all the way to 0 as Germany is committing to getting rid of coal based production completely by 2035 or so. Gas production did grow but mainly to offset decli…

what is the yield of solarwind in germany though? looking at their energy stats , it is underutilized https://energy-charts.info/charts/power/chart.htm?l=en&c=DE&... https://www.energy-charts.info/charts/installed_power/chart.... https://sminpowergroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Renewa... and what happens to that massive coal+gas infrastructure?Apparently , wind+solar don't work at night and you will always need…

Wind works just fine at night.

Re: Why is the nuclear power industry stagnant?

#350
post #66

"Recently, places as diverse as Texas, California, Oklahoma/Iowa/Kansas/Nebraska (SPP), the UK, and Germany have rapidly decarbonized without nuclear." Uh...Germany's actually recarbonized by shutting down their nuclear [increasing coal and imported electricity to pick up the slack]. "The nuclear electricity production lost in Germany's phase-out was primarily replaced with coal electricity production and electricity…

Germany: less and less coal https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-co2-coal?tab=chart...

"Share of renewable energy in gross final energy consumption": 13.7% in 2013 then many nuclear reactors shut down, and 19.3% in 2019 https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/nrg_ind_ured/...

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