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How This Ends

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Re: How This Ends

#111
post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1. Zero Percent interest rates doesn't necessarily cause a bubble. It's the excess liquidity in the market that causes the bubble (too many financial assets chasing real assets).

One drives the other.

I thought that the liquidity was driven by the money multiplier and the Fed's quantitative easing. If the fed set the interest rate at 10% but put in 20 trillion dollars into the economy there'd be bubbles everywhere.

Re: How This Ends

#112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One thing I learned is that many jobs that are considered essential are also considered dead-end. I assume that's pretty demotivating for anyone doing such a job.

The thing that I learned was that “essential” really meant “an acceptable loss of life so long as the profits keep flowing to the upper management class”. This isn’t just demotivating , its dehumanizing , and it’s the reason so many people I work with now won’t lift a finger to help stop the collapse of society. Just the opposite in fact: many people seem to be looking for a match to start the fire.

> and it’s the reason so many people I work with now won’t lift a finger to help stop the collapse of society

I'm sorry but what exactly do these people do that this is a power they have?

The "collapse of society" so frequently seems to be "small business owners need to actually give their staff enough hours and stop treating them valid targets for abuse".

Re: How This Ends

#113
post #71

Getting really annoying to have to keep track of macro events affecting my life year after year instead of just being able to live a normal peaceful life.

Agreed. Unfortunately, we’ve inherited the mess that our parents and grandparents left for us.

And we will create yet another mess for our children. Or at least what's left of them because we decided not to have any, which is a problem in itself.

Re: How This Ends

#114
post #71

Getting really annoying to have to keep track of macro events affecting my life year after year instead of just being able to live a normal peaceful life.

Agreed. Unfortunately, we’ve inherited the mess that our parents and grandparents left for us.

The current government spending sprees are not your parents' and grandparents' fault.

Re: How This Ends

#115
post #105
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"I really don’t think anyone really sat down and thought through these issues when the lockdowns were announced." People clearly thought very hard about this. Different parts of the world came to different conclusions about it. Nobody thought that the lockdowns wouldn't cause immense amounts of economical and societal damage. The calculation was whether they would have a worse impact than letting huge numbers of peop…

not to mention the millions of people who basically cannot work anymore because they've be irreparably damaged by COVID...

I'm sure a good chunk of the same people who were "irreparably damaged by COVID" would have been irreparably damaged by diseases such as lyme, fibromyalgia, chronic fatigue syndrome, etc. in another universe.

Re: How This Ends

#116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Bonds will be wrecked, stocks will be wrecked, cash is wrecked, even gold What will happen to the housing market?

People who bought houses will be fine, since they secured low interest loans, and will hesitate to sell because won't get good interest on next loan. This will cause low supply -> high prices -> people who didn't buy are very screwed: they will face high prices together with high interest.

You’re forgetting about the overpaid tech workers who are soon to be laid off, possibly underwater on their mortgages, and decide it’s time to downsize.

Re: How This Ends

#117
post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Bonds will be wrecked, stocks will be wrecked, cash is wrecked, even gold What will happen to the housing market?

Anything from nothing to a small correction. Mortgage payments set a ceiling on how high property prices can rise. However, people seem to be willing to spend more on mortgage payments than they probably should, so it’s likely that this ceiling hadn’t been reached yet. The other factor is simple supply and demand. A large factor in 2008 was a large inventory of housing that came on the market. As far as I’m aware, th…

I would like to qualify this. This is true in markets where labor is the majority purchasers. In markets like the sunbelt, where retirees are moving and buying properties with a combination of cash, previous real estate equity, and retirement assets, mortgage payments don’t restrict home prices. This crowds out anyone who does need financing to buy their home, especially as interest rates rise and inventory remains low.

Re: How This Ends

#118
post #51
post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe, but Barron's also has plenty of day-trader hype. How do you separate the good long-term predictions in Barron's from the bad ones? Read someone else. (You can optimize the process by skipping Barron's entirely.)

By ignoring the day-trader hype? (shouldn't be that difficult to spot)

There are domains where I feel I can judge an argument solely on its content. Predicting the economy isn't one of them. While I can discard some bogus arguments, there are plenty of coherent and self-consistent arguments pointing in different directions. So I have to consider the source.

Re: How This Ends

#119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Monkeypox is just getting started. Hang in there. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/05/22/biden-mon...

No airborne spread. Transmitted through sex. We're safe as houses. :p

In that case HNers are safe :-)

But I am afraid it is is transmissible by 'respiratory droplets'.

> "Monkeypox virus is transmitted from one person to another by close contact with lesions, body fluids, respiratory droplets and contaminated materials such as bedding."

https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/monkeypox

Re: How This Ends

#120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People who bought houses will be fine, since they secured low interest loans, and will hesitate to sell because won't get good interest on next loan. This will cause low supply -> high prices -> people who didn't buy are very screwed: they will face high prices together with high interest.

You’re forgetting about the overpaid tech workers who are soon to be laid off, possibly underwater on their mortgages, and decide it’s time to downsize.

There are amazon, google, msft and apple, with almost $1trln annual revenue combined, they will continue paying to a plenty of workers.
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