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How This Ends

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Re: How This Ends

#81

Post by randomsearch »

zw123456 wrote: post #49

One factor that I think might be different this time than from the 1980's is productivity increases from WFH. There are a number of studies showing that WFH has resulted in an increase in overall productivity. And has also helped curtail the demand for gas, although that is picking up. It remains to be seen if the Fed can wrangle the so called "soft landing", but productivity increase could potentially make that a bi…

That can’t possibly be true, right? GDP plummeted and employment is high, so productivity can’t have increased…

Re: How This Ends

#82

Post by alexashka »

omginternets wrote: post #2

I don’t have any good mental tools to distinguish between useful and useless economic predictions like this. How does HN navigate this kind of thing?

You don't. It's all useless.

If you have a high paying job/lots of money, it doesn't matter. If you don't have a high paying job, it also doesn't matter.

Do you see why?

That leaves people people for whom it doesn't matter, but they choose to entertain themselves with horoscopes, ahem, I mean market predictions.

Re: How This Ends

#83

Post by ChrisMarshallNY »

> I would be planning to ride this thing out for at least eighteen months or more.

I'm betting more like three to five years.

I was talking to a friend (another old guy, like me, but really rich, unlike me).

We've both been through at least two recessions (big, nasty ones, with teeth and claws). We realized that there's an entire generation of folks; many running companies, that have never seen a real bear market.

It's likely they are having a shit hemorrhage, right now.

The company I used to work for, was (still is) an over 100-year-old Japanese company. They lasted through a devastating war, a depression, multiple recessions, and were still around. I'm hoping that they stay around. They've made some choices that could be disastrous (I think that sidelining my team was one ;), but not the same kind a lot of companies are making now. Lots of people are leveraged to the hilt. Bad place to be, when the economy starts tanking.

HODL is the word. Live cheaply, so you don't need to cash out in a trough. Don't rely on other people's money, keep debt way down, keep margins high, optimize processes, etc.

Old-fashioned stuff. It worked 100 years ago, and still works today.

Not everything old is bad.

Re: How This Ends

#84

Post by freediver »

staticman2 wrote: post #61
freediver wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> that bond yields would never normalize. Now that they have, there is a risk free alternative to stocks. Treasury bond yields are 3%, inflation is 8.5%, so in real terms you are guaranteed to lose 5.5% annually if you hold bonds. Or basically instead of risk-free gain you are holding gain-free risk.

You are comparing treasury rates a bond will pay out over the next 10 years with inflation over the last year. This is apples and oranges.

You are right, inflation may get worse ;)

Re: How This Ends

#85

Post by throwaway_1928 »

fny wrote: post #24

I'm going to explain what has happened so far. What happens next entirely depends on how inflation continues and the feds reaction. 1. We had zero percent interest rates. This causes the value of assets with cash flows out into the future (think speculative tech, Tesla) to accelerate. 2. We had massive herding in megacap tech. These valuations are high in part because for a decade you would not have beat the index wi…

> Bonds will be wrecked, stocks will be wrecked, cash is wrecked, even gold

What will happen to the housing market?

Re: How This Ends

#86

Post by cma »

SV_BubbleTime wrote: post #62
starkd wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I fear they have not learned this lesson. Already ramping up fears of monkeypox. https://www.barrons.com/news/biden-warns-of-potentially-cons...

Why wouldn’t they? Name a government or public sector institution that lost power during covid. It’s tough to do.

For some reason the EPA? https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/mar/27/trump-po...

Re: How This Ends

#87

Post by [deleted] »

natly wrote: post #71

Getting really annoying to have to keep track of macro events affecting my life year after year instead of just being able to live a normal peaceful life.

[deleted]

Re: How This Ends

#88

Post by FollowingTheDao »

natly wrote: post #71

Getting really annoying to have to keep track of macro events affecting my life year after year instead of just being able to live a normal peaceful life.

You can do both! Live needing little, be humble, spontaneous, help your friends and family! Let go!

Re: How This Ends

#90

Post by giaour »

symlinkk wrote: post #29
herf wrote: post #28

I agree we are working through an asset bubble in tech and housing - P/E's went quite a ways above the historical line, as did housing prices. But think about the chip shortage (automotive, consumer electronics) - raising interest rates does not "fix" supply and make prices lower. Think about oil & gas markets. Think about labor shortages. When supply is broken, it's not only a monetary policy problem. Most of these…

The “chip shortage” was fake. The actual issue was inflation since the start.

Could you elaborate? I'd love to read some analysis on this, but just claiming the whole shortage was fake has some real "no trees on flat earth" energy.
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