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Why is the nuclear power industry stagnant?

austinvernon.site

491–500 of 672 posts

Re: Why is the nuclear power industry stagnant?

#491

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Germany is still a net exporter of electricity. France benefits from that, because in recent years they had to shut down their nuclear plants during heatwaves, when the rivers they use to cool them got too warm. I guess that will only get more frequent in the future.

This is a funny argument against nuclear. Some nuclear reactor have to shut down for a few days to avoid heating the rivers is a big problem. But the solar panel being down more than half the time (night or clouds) and the wind turbine also being down depending on the wind in uncontrollable ways is Ok.

At the moment half of France's nuclear plants are down for months and France is relying on imports. But this no the argument against nuclear. The argument against nuclear is that it simply is far too expensive.

Re: Why is the nuclear power industry stagnant?

#492
post #66

"Recently, places as diverse as Texas, California, Oklahoma/Iowa/Kansas/Nebraska (SPP), the UK, and Germany have rapidly decarbonized without nuclear." Uh...Germany's actually recarbonized by shutting down their nuclear [increasing coal and imported electricity to pick up the slack]. "The nuclear electricity production lost in Germany's phase-out was primarily replaced with coal electricity production and electricity…

> “The nuclear electricity production lost in Germany's phase-out was primarily replaced with … and electricity importing.”

Germany increased imports of electricity from France and Czech that is generated by nukes.

This is similar to my purchase of “green power” in Palo Alto which really just changes the allocation of how much hydro generated electricity California imports.

Neither case affects domestic production.

Re: Why is the nuclear power industry stagnant?

#493

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't underestimate the Germans. They'll get this done. They'll be pretty far done executing those plans in five years and probably will raise the ambition level rather than lowering it. I also predict they will trigger a pretty big economic boom doing so. All that money flowing into the economy will do a lot of good. They've actually been criticized for holding back too much in the last few decades. This looks like…

Don’t think the Germans still know how to “get it done”. Afaik their power transmission network hasn’t received significant improvements (even though I had last read something on the subject a few years ago, maybe things have changed) and their energy prices were among the highest in Europe before this war started. I’m also very bearish when it comes to their car industry efforts to transition to EVs, but that’s a sl…

Our energy prices are designed to be high. It's not a reflection of market. It's a tool to force everyone to reduce power consumption. It's the "steering" interpretation of Öko-Steuer and friends.

Re: Why is the nuclear power industry stagnant?

#494

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Such a simplification is very hypocritical in my eyes. Even Ukraine itself is not shutting down the Russian gas pipeline on its territory "to save Ukrainian lives". And the sanctions against Russia are not so complete that the West is blocking every cooperation. For example, no one wanted to immediately stop the cooperation regarding the International Space Station "to save Ukrainian lives", because the cost would ha…

Germany is paying hundreds of millions of euros per day to Russia for the gas. In March EU total payment was 700 million per day. This completely dwarfs any even billion dollar level support given to Ukraine. This is one quick graph that I could find. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1281568/daily-russian-ga... On Friday, Russia stopped gas exports to Finland. Electricity export to (and import from) Finland was st…

Well were switching to LNG. So we're not doing nothing.

Re: Why is the nuclear power industry stagnant?

#495

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Ignorant? Either disingenuous or ignorant, yes. > Energy storage is not a short or medium term solution. The primary role of energy storage systems in renewable energy sources is to balance supply and demand. Your assertion makes no sense because it ignores even the most fundamental aspects of the problem domain. > Pumped hydro is already maxxed out pretty much everywhere it's possible as not all dams are suitable…

> Meanwhile, back in the real world not only are power grids distributed at a continental level but there also multiple sources of power feeding into that grid, including imported energy generated from renewable sources. There is nothing close to the grid capacity to make this statement true. Germany lacks base load capacity and imports energy from coal and natural gas burning neighbors when their renewables go offli…

the gas plants are build BECAUSE they can switch to hydrogen produced by renewable energy. The hydrogen will be stored in the already existing gas system in form of a mix of hydrogen and methan.

Re: Why is the nuclear power industry stagnant?

#497

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think we're discussing semantics there. Coal use fell, coal and gas combined fell, but gas alone has risen. Which goes against predictions that coal would replace nuclear, that somehow some people claim have come true when there is obvious data that shows the opposite. I agree with the point that we should have phased out coal before nuclear, but you have to state it like that and not cling onto some dream that nuc…

> "Actually, Germany did not have a long term increase in coal/gas due to the nuclear shut down but a decrease" Arguably this is semantics. But that's because the semantics of your claim is unhelpfully ambiguous. In absolute terms coal and gas make up approximately the same share of Germany's capacity as it did in 2010. In relative terms, because the total output has increased, it's share has fallen. But I say it is…

Assumptions are all wrong.

Total output decreased from 632 TWh in 2010 to 588 TWh in 2021. Coal and lignite decreased substantially 117 TWh + 146 TWh in 2010 to 55 TWh + 110 TWh in 2021 (with a substantial reduction in CO2 emissions). gas use remained stable with 89 TWh in 2010 and 90 TWh in 2021. At the same time nuclear decreased from 141 TWh and 69 TWh and renewables increased from 105 TWh to 233 TWh.

Re: Why is the nuclear power industry stagnant?

#498
post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

it does get mentioned, and you can have nuclear power without producing plutonium.

but it's less straighforward and developed. Uranium-based nuclear power produces plutonium. non-uranium based nuclear power is possible but requires technology development that in practice has taken much longer than expected.

Part of that development delay is the deliberate decision of the US (and other countries) to build the types of reactors that can produce weapons grade plutonium - for the express purpose of using it for nuclear weapons. Nuclear reactors are crazy expensive, so if the money comes from people who want Pu, then that's where the R&D goes.

Re: Why is the nuclear power industry stagnant?

#499
post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

it does get mentioned, and you can have nuclear power without producing plutonium.

The rest of hackernews seems to have decided that plutonium is a step on the way to solve the waste problem. What's your take on that?

Which waste problem? And how does Pu solve it?

Re: Why is the nuclear power industry stagnant?

#500

The Lazard report cited is two years old. There’s an updated version here: https://www.lazard.com/media/451881/lazards-levelized-cost-o... Better visualization of the key chart here: https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2022/~/media/Im...

Solar/wind will always fluctuate - nuclear can provide a guaranteed output to smoothen the need for massive batteries.
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