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The cryptocurrency sell-off has exposed those swimming naked

economist.com

61–70 of 179 posts

Re: The cryptocurrency sell-off has exposed those swimming naked

#61
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s practically impossible to use Bitcoin as digital cash because it’s so slow and expensive. That was the original problem it purported to solve, but it failed miserably at that.

A bitcoin transaction to be processed sometime in the next 24 hours costs $0.15 right now. That competes pretty well with many bank transfer methods, especially international, which still take many days and cost sometimes $20+.

That's not really a fair comparison. Bitcoin cannot has very limited use for actual commerce - actually paying for stuff. So you also need to consider the inconvenience, complexity and cost of trading the received BTC for local currency.

I haven't paid anything for international transfers within the SEPA area for years. Depending on the source/destination bank, the transfer can be completed within an hour or so.

Sometimes the solution is simply better banking infrastructure. The banking/payments system in the US is a mess but it doesn't have to be so.

Re: The cryptocurrency sell-off has exposed those swimming naked

#62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every time one makes the point that Bitcoin has no real utility, someone says 'Lightning network'. Does anyone know if it's getting any adoption?

At this point it can be used for payments practically everywhere where Bitcoin accepted, but it’s not yet practical for payments over $100 as far as I know, so I still only use the base Bitcoin layer for paying for my travels. There are new algorithms in late research phase though for much larger payments (like $5000) that are expected to go into production this year. I’m waiting for that before switching to using li…

> For people in the US though they can just go into a Walmart or McDonald’s and use it right now.

Am I right to assume that "use" here is in the same sense[1] that you can "use" "dollars" to pay your Big Mac in Paris with your US credit card? I.e. French McDonald's does not set the price in dollars but euros and does not need to touch dollars with a ten foot pole during the whole process and receives euros in their account?

[1] Which hardly makes any sense to me, to be honest.

Re: The cryptocurrency sell-off has exposed those swimming naked

#63
Tether truthing the eminent doom of tether is all well and good but why aren't we talking more about YCombinator promoting startups that burned their customer's money by sending it to anchor protocol UST ponzinomics while lying that those investments were held in USDC and USD?

https://twitter.com/fatmanterra/status/1527153694218797058

https://www.ycombinator.com/companies/stablegains

Or is it bad to talk about such things around here?

Re: The cryptocurrency sell-off has exposed those swimming naked

#64
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s practically impossible to use Bitcoin as digital cash because it’s so slow and expensive. That was the original problem it purported to solve, but it failed miserably at that.

So far. If you spend any time in the research community you’ll realise that those problems are very likely to get solved. Lightning alone probably gets us there. Its volatility and UX, as well as how negatively it is perceived currently (by some people) look like bigger blockers to me.

Ligthning is an alternative to Bitcoin, not a fix for it. It has a different security model (much much much weaker), it uses entirely different technology, it is essentially centralized. The fact that it uses Bitcoin on the back end is mostly a detail of Lightning.

Re: The cryptocurrency sell-off has exposed those swimming naked

#65
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s practically impossible to use Bitcoin as digital cash because it’s so slow and expensive. That was the original problem it purported to solve, but it failed miserably at that.

A bitcoin transaction to be processed sometime in the next 24 hours costs $0.15 right now. That competes pretty well with many bank transfer methods, especially international, which still take many days and cost sometimes $20+.

It really doesn't.

Bank transfers do not cost me and happen instantaneous, not 24 hours.

I can also transfer to the US, and they receive it in 24 hours. It still doesn't cost me.

Re: The cryptocurrency sell-off has exposed those swimming naked

#66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If there would be a huge peak, like $200k, I would sell, but generally I don’t believe I can compete with the hedge funds trading Bitcoin, so it’s the second. The only exception was the Bitcoin Cash hard fork, that I strongly opposed as it was being pushed by companies so aggressively even though there was no rough consensus reached, while segregated witness fork contained several critical bug fixes for Bitcoin. I so…

Out of interest, do you set explicit targets like "if it gets to X I will sell"? Just wondering as I'd have thought a "peak" is only evident in retrospect?

I’m extremely bad at trading, but it didn’t stop me from achieving amazing returns. Just an example last year I had a target of $150k when it was at $50k, and also (like most people) I got a BTC based loan (it made sense for tax purposes as well). The problem was that everybody was doing it, and professional traders probably used those loans to short the market and trigger margin calls. I had multiple margin calls as well, but I was able to add extra collateral. At the same time I spoke with a person who lost all his money because he bought BTC/ETH from his loan.

At the end the only experience I got is that I’m still a bad trader, and I won’t do it :)

Re: The cryptocurrency sell-off has exposed those swimming naked

#67
post #38

Looking at Google's 5 year graph of Bitcoin prices, it looks like there were 2 crashes last year of similar size as this one.

With markets it's all about narrative. Growth stocks have been coming down and so has Bitcoin, so people like to highlight that everyone is sharing the pain.

It's not even that. It's all about click through.

I pretty much think all real news articles are completely dead.

Historically, there were always catchy headines in newspapers. But they had some factualality to them, and if not they were trash rags like the National Enquirer, a newspaper sold at grocery checkouts, often explaining how a celebrity was really an alien, or time traveller, or some such.

Real newspapers had to adhere to some standards, and usually ran mostly on sales for revenue.

They sold ads, and classified ads, but they were paid papers, and each paper sold meant more profit, and for advertising revenue.

This meant that if the paper had a headline, but the headline was a lie/untruthful, some people would get upset and demand their money back.

And if this continued, people would stop buying it, because they were paying for it, and who wants to buy something which lies to get sold?!

Beyond that, if the article was poorly written, if the article was poorly researched, many would be annoyed at wasting cash. If the newspaper ended up with a reputation for this, sales would likely drop.

Point is, when paying hard cash for something, people typically demand something of value in return.

Compare that to today, where modern news is like a poster someone stuck on a lamp post. Are you gonna complain, if the free poster is just made up drivel?!

Modern news is this. Nothing you read has any incentive to be true, the only incentive is to get you to click, and look at the ads.

So you do, because OMG! Bad thing happened!

Modern democracies depend upon pillars of society to hold it up, news being one of them.

And news used to serve this purpose, being primarily consumer facing.

And now it's not. Now, it's gone.

Re: The cryptocurrency sell-off has exposed those swimming naked

#68
post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks for bringing this up! The good stuff you've mentioned is behind the paywall for me and the intro I can read does look non-balanced.

There are always archive links. It’s a good idea to read the whole article before condemning it. https://archive.ph/4x3je > “… The trouble is that a draconian crackdown would put at risk the benefits that crypto eventually promises, including new financial products that bypass stodgy banks; innovations in property rights; and the possibility of a less centralised financial system.”

Bit OT, a further good idea will be to buy the subscription and support good journalism. I am not being flippant, I believe good journalism needs support.

Re: The cryptocurrency sell-off has exposed those swimming naked

#70
I sold everything when btc hit 23000 man that felt like it was never getting any higher. But then again I remember screaming to my wife in disbelieve when 1 btc was 10€, and then shortly after that 100! So I’m just waiting for a dip below 23000 now. Btw, I like swimming naked.
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