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The cryptocurrency sell-off has exposed those swimming naked

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Re: The cryptocurrency sell-off has exposed those swimming naked

#51
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s practically impossible to use Bitcoin as digital cash because it’s so slow and expensive. That was the original problem it purported to solve, but it failed miserably at that.

So far. If you spend any time in the research community you’ll realise that those problems are very likely to get solved. Lightning alone probably gets us there. Its volatility and UX, as well as how negatively it is perceived currently (by some people) look like bigger blockers to me.

The US adult population is ~250 million. With Bitcoin's ~300k transactions/day, it would take over 2 years for each of them to simply open a LN channel, if we dedicate the entire network just to onboarding.

Lightning will definitely not solve it.

edit: tps -> transactions/day

Re: The cryptocurrency sell-off has exposed those swimming naked

#52
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s practically impossible to use Bitcoin as digital cash because it’s so slow and expensive. That was the original problem it purported to solve, but it failed miserably at that.

Every time one makes the point that Bitcoin has no real utility, someone says 'Lightning network'. Does anyone know if it's getting any adoption?

At this point it can be used for payments practically everywhere where Bitcoin accepted, but it’s not yet practical for payments over $100 as far as I know, so I still only use the base Bitcoin layer for paying for my travels.

There are new algorithms in late research phase though for much larger payments (like $5000) that are expected to go into production this year. I’m waiting for that before switching to using lightning network.

For people in the US though they can just go into a Walmart or McDonald’s and use it right now.

Re: The cryptocurrency sell-off has exposed those swimming naked

#53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That includes having short positions? Why would that be particularly bad if the momentum is downward?

It includes shorts because you don't know when the market will turn around. It does, however, exclude DCA, which is almost always a sensible investment strategy.

It includes DCA because you don't know if the market will turn around.

Re: The cryptocurrency sell-off has exposed those swimming naked

#54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have a strategy of selling on the peaks (possibly even buying on the lows with some of the proceeds) to eventually exit while ahead or are you just holding because you have a strong belief that it can only rise in future and it's not worth following the day to day drama (as many do with stocks)? Either way, you personally benefit from belief in Bitcoin and crypto being generally positive, which has implication…

If there would be a huge peak, like $200k, I would sell, but generally I don’t believe I can compete with the hedge funds trading Bitcoin, so it’s the second. The only exception was the Bitcoin Cash hard fork, that I strongly opposed as it was being pushed by companies so aggressively even though there was no rough consensus reached, while segregated witness fork contained several critical bug fixes for Bitcoin. I so…

Out of interest, do you set explicit targets like "if it gets to X I will sell"?

Just wondering as I'd have thought a "peak" is only evident in retrospect?

Re: The cryptocurrency sell-off has exposed those swimming naked

#55
post #5

,,The crypto slump has been brutal’’ I’ve been holding Bitcoin since 2013, and this 50-60% retracement from the all time high was nothing compared to what I (and other people) were living through. I advise people to look at past volatility of Bitcoin before making an investment decision.

So, past trends are the basis of this advice? Not trying to be snarky, just genuinely interested in why we would expect it to climb again.

Past performance is indicative of future results except for the purposes of liability punting, which is a super convenient capability of apocryphal disclaimers

Re: The cryptocurrency sell-off has exposed those swimming naked

#56
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s practically impossible to use Bitcoin as digital cash because it’s so slow and expensive. That was the original problem it purported to solve, but it failed miserably at that.

A bitcoin transaction to be processed sometime in the next 24 hours costs $0.15 right now. That competes pretty well with many bank transfer methods, especially international, which still take many days and cost sometimes $20+.

Cash settles immediately. "Sometime in the next 24 hours" is not digital cash.

Not to mention that Bitcoin is so volatile that the transaction's value in real-world currency may be 10% higher or lower within that 24-hour window, and of course you still need to pay someone to convert it into money if you're not planning on being a crypto holder.

Re: The cryptocurrency sell-off has exposed those swimming naked

#57
post #5

,,The crypto slump has been brutal’’ I’ve been holding Bitcoin since 2013, and this 50-60% retracement from the all time high was nothing compared to what I (and other people) were living through. I advise people to look at past volatility of Bitcoin before making an investment decision.

So, past trends are the basis of this advice? Not trying to be snarky, just genuinely interested in why we would expect it to climb again.

Here's what Goldman told me in their newsletter:

The meltdown in cryptocurrencies is raising alarm about the future of digital assets — or is it?

Fears over soaring prices and slowing economic growth have sent investors fleeing from risk assets, notably cryptocurrencies. In the latest Exchanges at Goldman Sachs, Mathew McDermott, global head of digital assets at Goldman Sachs, explains the drivers, evolution and the outlook for crypto assets and the broader digital assets ecosystem.

Recent volatility underscores that crypto assets are still an emerging asset class with a large number of retail participants, McDermott explains to Exchanges host Allison Nathan of Goldman Sachs Research. “The move so far has been correlated to the broader macro market moves,” notes McDermott, who points out that nearly every asset class with discounted cash flows has been hard hit by inflationary pressures.

Blockchain, crypto and digital currencies are gaining broader acceptance among investors, companies and institutions. “Maturity across both the market participants and the infrastructure has given not only confidence to many different institutional sectors, but also has enabled many more traditional traders to really look forward in how they trade this marketplace because of this maturity in the product suite,” McDermott says.

Venture capital investments in digital assets are surging. While valuations are pretty high, there continues to be “high levels of interest because people continue to see exponential growth opportunities and are keen to deploy that capital,” says McDermott. “I think valuations have got a little out of kilter, so perhaps we'll see some more sensible valuations in terms of investment opportunities, too.”

Re: The cryptocurrency sell-off has exposed those swimming naked

#58
post #5

,,The crypto slump has been brutal’’ I’ve been holding Bitcoin since 2013, and this 50-60% retracement from the all time high was nothing compared to what I (and other people) were living through. I advise people to look at past volatility of Bitcoin before making an investment decision.

So, past trends are the basis of this advice? Not trying to be snarky, just genuinely interested in why we would expect it to climb again.

The thinking behind it is based on the halving of rewards and the stock to flow model. https://bitblogger.org/demystifying-bitcoins-remarkably-accu...

If you follow that reason then it's rational that there are crashes after peaks (cashing out), and it's still rational that it will keep rising to a point that it reaches its true value (whatever that is).

The peaks and troughs will flatten out as that happens.

Could well all be wrong. But so far that seems to be the pattern.

Re: The cryptocurrency sell-off has exposed those swimming naked

#60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If there would be a huge peak, like $200k, I would sell, but generally I don’t believe I can compete with the hedge funds trading Bitcoin, so it’s the second. The only exception was the Bitcoin Cash hard fork, that I strongly opposed as it was being pushed by companies so aggressively even though there was no rough consensus reached, while segregated witness fork contained several critical bug fixes for Bitcoin. I so…

Out of interest, do you set explicit targets like "if it gets to X I will sell"? Just wondering as I'd have thought a "peak" is only evident in retrospect?

The way i've been looking at it is thru the lens of allocation ratios. You never have one asset with a high allocation (compared to another). You also have to decide ahead of time (when you start investing) what an appropriate allocation ratio is between the different assets (e.g., you might have 10% bonds, 80% stocks and 10% crypto).

Then, one or twice a year, you an reallocate assets as they drift away from the ratio. Doing it too often is detrimental, so my guess is once a year is "enough", and may be keep an eye on any fluctuations and if it grows bigger than some threshold, you do a second rebalance.

Let's say in 2021, crypto had a huge bull run, and went from just being 10% of your allocation to something close to 20%. It makes a lot of sense then, to sell the 10%, and rebalance back into the other assets you hold.

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