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The Coming Food Catastrophe

economist.com

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Re: The Coming Food Catastrophe

#221

Post by mellavora »

wyager wrote: post #98
calvinmorrison wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The economies of scale in industrial farming are insane. The ROI on a personal garden is abysmally low, except for herbs and other low-volume plants. So I read this book called "How Asia Works" which documented the economic transformations of a few different Asian countries. I was shocked to learn that in a lot of cases, the industrial farming not the huge boon that was expected efficiently a few people can grow th…

> Countries that promoted small-scale household farming instead of moving too soon to large scale farming were more successful Promoting small-scale farming and industry lead to widespread poverty and famine in cultural revolution China. > very few people work in farming, the smallest amount in history. Why can't it slide back the other way? It could , but this would probably be a pretty bad thing. I guess it depends…

> Promoting small-scale farming and industry lead to widespread poverty and famine in cultural revolution China.

In this specific example, there might have been other causes.

In general I agree with you, getting the entire US to "go Amish" isn't viable. Just picking on your example which leaves out some of the details about how the transition was "promoted".

Re: The Coming Food Catastrophe

#222

Post by mistermann »

paganel wrote: post #203
namdnay wrote: post #191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is "the west" exactly? Japan? New Zealand? Finland? Tunisia? A better term would be liberal democracies, but that wouldn't have quite the same "both sides are the same" ring to it, would it? Russia isn't waging an economic war against anyone. A dictator tried to invade his democratic neighbour, he failed, and now the other democraties are cutting him out of their club

Mostly the US, with some UK mixed in. > A better term would be liberal democracies If you think "liberal democracies" still carries the same positive vibe across the world that it used to some years ago you are in for a big surprise. > "both sides are the same" ring to it They are definitely not the same, they have obviously different values. Again, Putin has said as much, he's the one fighting for a multi-polar worl…

> If you think "liberal democracies" still carries the same positive vibe across the world that it used to some years ago you are in for a big surprise.

Agree, I would state it as "liberal" "democracies" - this is an opinion of course, but I think if one was to fairly but critically perform an in-depth evaluation, things are not as lovely as they are described to the masses.

Re: The Coming Food Catastrophe

#223

Post by namdnay »

paganel wrote: post #203
namdnay wrote: post #191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is "the west" exactly? Japan? New Zealand? Finland? Tunisia? A better term would be liberal democracies, but that wouldn't have quite the same "both sides are the same" ring to it, would it? Russia isn't waging an economic war against anyone. A dictator tried to invade his democratic neighbour, he failed, and now the other democraties are cutting him out of their club

Mostly the US, with some UK mixed in. > A better term would be liberal democracies If you think "liberal democracies" still carries the same positive vibe across the world that it used to some years ago you are in for a big surprise. > "both sides are the same" ring to it They are definitely not the same, they have obviously different values. Again, Putin has said as much, he's the one fighting for a multi-polar worl…

> Mostly the US, with some UK mixed in.

That's the opposition to Russia? Hardly, Ukraine's neighbours are doing far more than anyone in London or Washington.

> They are definitely not the same, they have obviously different values

Yes one of them is democracy, the other is dictatorships. One is good, the other is bad. Refreshingly, some things in life are simple.

> he's the one fighting for a multi-polar world with multi-polar values

if he wanted a multi-polar world he'd have let ukraine be a pole. no, he wants a russian world, with himself at the top of it

Re: The Coming Food Catastrophe

#224

Post by chrsig »

postalrat wrote: post #217
UnFleshedOne wrote: post #182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Another option for #4 is supplying enough long range anti-ship rockets to sink whole russian fleet in black sea. They can't bring in more ships, because turkey is blocking the entrance.

Triggering world war 3 would also help reduce the population which could reduce co2 emissions and food requirements. Killing a few birds with one stone.

I really wish the last few years didn't make me desensitized to the notion.

Re: The Coming Food Catastrophe

#225

Post by corrral »

sva_ wrote: post #193
corrral wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Rice will be full of pest insect eggs. They'll hatch after a while (smallish count of months, likely). You've got to freeze it (to kill the eggs) and then seal it (to keep more pests from getting in) and/or add stuff that'll kill anything that hatches very fast (IIRC diatomaceous earth is popular for this) Other grains have similar pest problems, plus if it's wheat or similar and ground into flour (not e.g. whole whe…

Small (1kg) vacuum-sealed bags should be fine though.

Correct—it's doable, it just takes more material and planning than "buy bag of rice, stick bag in dry place in basement". Do that, you'll be sad when you try to use it in a year or three.

The alternative is maintaining a stock but constantly drawing it down & replenishing it, but it gets difficult to maintain a substantial reserve that way, unless you already eat your "apocalypse" diet most of the time, so go through a lot of the same things you've got in storage even during normal times—say, if you already eat rice & beans 5+ dinners a week. You're capped by the rate at which you go through those things in non-emergency times. Plus it takes some planning and ongoing monitoring/inventorying, which is a non-zero amount of work.

Re: The Coming Food Catastrophe

#226

Post by yjftsjthsd-h »

EddieDante wrote: post #35
bell-cot wrote: post #28

Tip from an old geezer: Plant Your Victory Garden Now! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victory_garden

Your local zoning board might object. I live in PA, and one of the neighborhood vigilantes immediately ratted me out to the local government when I started growing corn, squash, and beans in my backyard while raising a couple of chickens for eggs.

> one of the neighborhood vigilantes immediately ratted me out to the local government

Better than your previous phrasing, but try again; if the action that they took was to report you to the government then they are the opposite of a vigilante by definition.

Re: The Coming Food Catastrophe

#227

Post by sva_ »

corrral wrote: post #225
sva_ wrote: post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Small (1kg) vacuum-sealed bags should be fine though.

Correct—it's doable, it just takes more material and planning than "buy bag of rice, stick bag in dry place in basement". Do that, you'll be sad when you try to use it in a year or three. The alternative is maintaining a stock but constantly drawing it down & replenishing it, but it gets difficult to maintain a substantial reserve that way, unless you already eat your "apocalypse" diet most of the time, so go through…

Maybe I'm ignorant of this, but it was my impression that vacuum-sealed white rice should pretty much last indefinitely?

Re: The Coming Food Catastrophe

#228

Post by vorpalhex »

sva_ wrote: post #190
mbg721 wrote: post #91

If you're in the West, it doesn't hurt to buy a couple big bags of rice from the local Indian market, and have some dried or canned beans handy, and cycle through them as you cook. A pallet of bottled water and a bag of charcoal don't hurt either. A dumb power outage or a downed wire or a tornado or something is much more likely than Red Dawn, but you'll still be happy to have all that.

I recently looked into how much rice I'd need to survive for a year. The results were fairly surprising. A kilogram of uncooked rice only provide you with about 3500 kcal, less than you'd use in 2 days of time (for the average human). So you'd need quite a lot of rice. Beans are similar, they just have more protein (not a complete protein though). I concluded that while it is definitely advisable to have some number…

You don't need 2k calories a day in an emergency.

You can survive on 1200-1500 calories a day.

I still don't advise going in 100% on rice as beri-beri is an issue (or heavy metal issues if you go all brown rice).

A good mix of canned goods, dried goods and reliable water will help. Even in a shortage you will probably have some access, but limited access.

I strongly advise against bottled water for emergencies. It is the worst possible solution for cost/size/availability. You can buy 6 gallon aquatainers and fill them with tap water for an easy (and useful for camping) solution. Rotate every six months and you don't need secondary treatment.

Otherwise a food grade 55 gallon drum is $100 and you can fill it from your tap. You will want secondary treatment options if you plan to rotate just every 2 years, and you still need a smaller intermediary vessel.

Re: The Coming Food Catastrophe

#229

Post by AnimalMuppet »

husainfazel wrote: post #178
AnimalMuppet wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because Union Pacific is out to destroy food production? Riiiiight... Or because the government didn't prevent a stupidity from a private company? Never attribute to malice...

The man at the very top has warned us about food shortages: https://farmpolicynews.illinois.edu/2022/03/its-going-to-be-... So why are CF Industries needing to beg the administration to intervene and allow shipments. https://strangesounds.org/2022/04/fertilizer-giant-cf-indust... Also ask yourself why Union Pacific is imposing these restrictions? Maybe it might have something to do with the latest rage in the world f…

Union Pacific is acting to try to improve their "operating ratio" according to the current management fad that they've fallen prey to.

CF Industries is begging the administration, not because the administration is in a plot to cause this, but because Union Pacific isn't listening. (And also because the government just had hearings about the incompetence of railroads under the current management fad.) CF is just looking for some lever that will keep UP from damaging CF's business.

No, I don't think Blackrock or the WEF have anything to do with it. It has to do with Canadian National, and then Canadian Pacific, adopting Precision Scheduled Railroading, and improving their operating ratios by doing so, and every other major railroad (except maybe BNSF) jumping on the bandwagon. But in doing so, UP is driving away some traffic (not just food- or fertilizer-related), in the hope that net profit will go up.

This has all been building for a decade or so. It's nothing related to the current geopolitical and economic situation.

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