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The Coming Food Catastrophe

economist.com

191–200 of 634 posts

Re: The Coming Food Catastrophe

#191

The article actually has four solutions at the bottom. Compared to the severity of the problem, all four solutions are surprisingly simple. Not necessarily easy, but simple and straightforward. 1. Stop using so much corn to make ethanol. 2. Stop using so much seed oil to make biodiesel. 3. Stop feeding so much food to livestock. Bonus: reducing the livestock population provides short term calories! 4. Break the Black…

Re 4., that's doable if the West renounces some of its existing economic sanctions against Russia, the Russians themselves have said as much recently. It probably won't happen because the West doesn't like to see itself as being involved in the war (in a way similar to what Russia thinks about itself) and will try to resort to "Russia should unlock the blockade purely on humanitarian grounds!", which, of course, is t…

What is "the west" exactly? Japan? New Zealand? Finland? Tunisia? A better term would be liberal democracies, but that wouldn't have quite the same "both sides are the same" ring to it, would it?

Russia isn't waging an economic war against anyone. A dictator tried to invade his democratic neighbour, he failed, and now the other democraties are cutting him out of their club

Re: The Coming Food Catastrophe

#192

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Re 4., that's doable if the West renounces some of its existing economic sanctions against Russia, the Russians themselves have said as much recently. It probably won't happen because the West doesn't like to see itself as being involved in the war (in a way similar to what Russia thinks about itself) and will try to resort to "Russia should unlock the blockade purely on humanitarian grounds!", which, of course, is t…

Hypothetically, if the west actually wanted to give up sanctions in return for clearing the blockade.. why, in what universe, could they possibly expect Russia to stand by its word? Russia said for six months they were simply conducting exercises and had no intention of invading whatsoever. Why should anyone believe they would clear the blockade if sanctions lift?

If they don't stand by their word then they can re-impose the sanctions, it's as simple as that.

> Why should anyone believe they would clear the blockade if sanctions lift

Because at some point the West will have to sit at the negotiating table with Russia.

Re: The Coming Food Catastrophe

#193
post #91

If you're in the West, it doesn't hurt to buy a couple big bags of rice from the local Indian market, and have some dried or canned beans handy, and cycle through them as you cook. A pallet of bottled water and a bag of charcoal don't hurt either. A dumb power outage or a downed wire or a tornado or something is much more likely than Red Dawn, but you'll still be happy to have all that.

Rice will be full of pest insect eggs. They'll hatch after a while (smallish count of months, likely). You've got to freeze it (to kill the eggs) and then seal it (to keep more pests from getting in) and/or add stuff that'll kill anything that hatches very fast (IIRC diatomaceous earth is popular for this) Other grains have similar pest problems, plus if it's wheat or similar and ground into flour (not e.g. whole whe…

Small (1kg) vacuum-sealed bags should be fine though.

Re: The Coming Food Catastrophe

#194
post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These are part of a propaganda strategy to make people feel like they're "helping". They are not an effective or efficient way of improving food availability. If you enjoy gardening as a hobby, that's great, but these are not practical bulwarks against food shortages. The economies of scale in industrial farming are insane. The ROI on a personal garden is abysmally low, except for herbs and other low-volume plants.

These are part of a propaganda strategy to make people feel like they're "helping". Depends whether you're gardening for a global food shortage, or to supplement your own use, which I suspect is why most people have home gardens. A home garden can supply a significant fraction of your food - especially if you do canning or otherwise preserve for winter use. From the link in the parent post: Fruit and vegetables harve…

That's great and all. I think home gardens are great. But the topic is about food shortages in poor nations due to increases in grain prices. Home gardens does literally nothing to help anyone in poor nations who will be going hungry later this year.

Re: The Coming Food Catastrophe

#195
post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These are part of a propaganda strategy to make people feel like they're "helping". They are not an effective or efficient way of improving food availability. If you enjoy gardening as a hobby, that's great, but these are not practical bulwarks against food shortages. The economies of scale in industrial farming are insane. The ROI on a personal garden is abysmally low, except for herbs and other low-volume plants.

Try talking to some older folks - who at least heard many first-hand accounts from relatives who both had WWII Victory Gardens, and also gardened food during the Great Depression, out of economic necessity. With a few years' experience doing that, sharing tips and seeds with neighbors also doing it, and memories of being pretty hungry at times in the winter...ordinary people can get pretty damn good at growing a lot…

Getting good at gardening doesn't allow you to exceed agribusiness land efficiency levels, so we can put a pretty tight cap on how much small home gardens actually helped.

Re: The Coming Food Catastrophe

#196
post #23

Sounds like there's a big potential for upheavals similar to the Arab Spring. A fair number of countries subsidize food for their citizens, and if they can't get their hands on any, there's going to be issues. I wonder which countries are most at risk? I read somewhere that the Arab countries get a lot of Ukrainian wheat.

That’s probably mainly due to low shipping costs due to proximity (in the grand scheme of things). There is scope for substitution with supplies from elsewhere in the world, if those supplies can be freed up from their usual end use. Biodiesel, cattle feed, etc. Here in the UK restrictions on labelling sunflower oil now mean it’s acceptable to adulterate it with other oils. My family has switched to using rapeseed oi…

Rapeseed soil is much worse for you.

Re: The Coming Food Catastrophe

#197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Re 4., that's doable if the West renounces some of its existing economic sanctions against Russia, the Russians themselves have said as much recently. It probably won't happen because the West doesn't like to see itself as being involved in the war (in a way similar to what Russia thinks about itself) and will try to resort to "Russia should unlock the blockade purely on humanitarian grounds!", which, of course, is t…

Another option for #4 is supplying enough long range anti-ship rockets to sink whole russian fleet in black sea. They can't bring in more ships, because turkey is blocking the entrance.

And then you have Russian aviation attacking and sinking Ukrainian merchant ships, plus a couple of submarines.

Re: The Coming Food Catastrophe

#198

Might also be worth examining the amount of crop grown, then subsequently burned in the U.S. Somewhere between 25% to 40% of corn in the U.S., up to 20% of agriculture land is devoted to ethanol production. If food production is a growing concern, it seems strange that so much agricultural production is spent on non-food producing activities.

Why "also"? Ethanol production is the number one cause identified in the article..

Re: The Coming Food Catastrophe

#199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One of Soylent's primary ingredients is sunflower oil, for which the world's largest producer is (drumroll please) Ukraine. Guess who's #2, and under major international sanctioning? Between them, they're about 50% of worldwide production.

I assumed parent was referring to the Green variety. The primary ingredient is... abundant.

[deleted]

Re: The Coming Food Catastrophe

#200
post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But I also have Victory Squirrels taking one bite out of each tomato and moving on...

I call those sauce or soup tomatoes.

If you're fast enough you can get the ingredients for tomato sauce and meatballs at the same time :)
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