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The Coming Food Catastrophe

economist.com

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Re: The Coming Food Catastrophe

#41

Post by Johnny555 »

ceejayoz wrote: post #36
EddieDante wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your local zoning board might object. I live in PA, and one of the neighborhood vigilantes immediately ratted me out to the local government when I started growing corn, squash, and beans in my backyard while raising a couple of chickens for eggs.

It also takes well over an acre to support a single person, and that's if you know what you're doing and have the time to manage a garden of that size.

You don't have to grow 100% of your food to benefit from a home garden.

Re: The Coming Food Catastrophe

#42

Post by closedloop129 »

Haven't ethanol fuels been introduced to have a buffer for this situation? If we don't turn grain and corn into petrol then there should be some reserves.

Additionally, if we stop rising live-stock, where roughly 10 units of plant create one unit of meat, there should be even more calories available.

Re: The Coming Food Catastrophe

#43

Post by mschuster91 »

doodlebugging wrote: post #14

From doom-scrolling the Ukraine/Russia war it is pretty obvious that Ukrainian farmers have not been idle. Battles are being fought in the treelines and along rivers next to plowed and planted fields. Hopefully some of these crops are harvested and make it to market.

> Hopefully some of these crops are harvested and make it to market.

There are unfortunately a lot of problems here which make me seriously pessimistic:

- Ukraine will need a lot of the harvest for itself, given how Russians raided crop silos [1] and what they can't raid they bomb to pieces [2]

- No one knows if Russian operatives didn't poison crop silos - there are a number of poisons that are very stable in the environment and very hard to detect if you don't know what you are looking for, and Russians have proven over and over that they have an awful lot of skill in dealing with poisons

- Russians looted a lot of agricultural machinery, and a lot more got destroyed or seriously damaged - and the Ukrainians repurposed a lot of stuff either to tow off Russian tanks or to convert into technicals

- fertilizer is made of natural gas which is in short supply, which in turn will massively impact yields

- similar to the post-war situation in Yugoslavia, fields will need to be de-mined extensively, and they need to be cleansed off of shrapnel and fuel

- even if there are quantities to export, you need a way to transport them. The railroad track width is different in Ukraine (Russian wide-gauge) and Europe (standard), there aren't many re-trackable cargo wagons, a lot of rail equipment and bridges got blasted by Russians or by Ukrainians for sabotage. God knows in what state the sea ports are, there has been heavy fighting, not to mention the sea mines that are already causing chaos [3]

All in all it will be years if not decades until Ukraine can be a serious player on the crop market again.

[1] https://edition.cnn.com/2022/05/05/europe/russia-ukraine-gra...

[2] https://www.reuters.com/world/exclusive-photos-show-russian-...

[3] https://www.dw.com/en/experts-warn-black-sea-mines-pose-seri...

Re: The Coming Food Catastrophe

#45

Post by elEpHantiaSis »

lordnacho wrote: post #3

Sounds like there's a big potential for upheavals similar to the Arab Spring. A fair number of countries subsidize food for their citizens, and if they can't get their hands on any, there's going to be issues. I wonder which countries are most at risk? I read somewhere that the Arab countries get a lot of Ukrainian wheat.

[dead]

Re: The Coming Food Catastrophe

#46

Post by Scoundreller »

ceejayoz wrote: post #36
EddieDante wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your local zoning board might object. I live in PA, and one of the neighborhood vigilantes immediately ratted me out to the local government when I started growing corn, squash, and beans in my backyard while raising a couple of chickens for eggs.

It also takes well over an acre to support a single person, and that's if you know what you're doing and have the time to manage a garden of that size.

That’s why I grow for value and flavour. Base calories are cheap, making them taste good (in a healthy way) costs a lot more.

Re: The Coming Food Catastrophe

#48

Post by colechristensen »

wavesounds wrote: post #4

We should stop growing corn for ethanol since it's worse for the climate than gasoline[1] and instead use all that land and machinery to grow wheat instead. 1. https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/us-corn-based-e...

Corn produces 4-6 times the calories per acre as wheat, not to mention farmers and distribution networks would have to spend a whole lot to switch.

Many people are suggesting eating less meat to help potential food shortages, switching corn to wheat actually loses about as much food as feeding corn to cattle. (i.e. a cornfield switched to wheat and a cornfield fed to cattle would result in a similar number of calories)

We indeed should stop producing ethanol, but plenty of hungry people around the world could be just as happy eating corn as wheat.

Re: The Coming Food Catastrophe

#49

Post by alecco »

This article is partisan garbage, as usual lately for The Economist. Sure, the war had an impact but most of the problems were months BEFORE the war.

Search for "AgInflation" articles from 2021. I know farmers who skipped this season due to razor thin profits, suppressed prices by governments and major supermarkets, and risk of water controls. Would you put $50k of your money for a 10% return with a very, very high risk of failure?

The farmers that did plant, say wheat, are not benefiting from the price surge because to minimize risk they sold their harvest in advance or sold futures. SPECULATORS that are making a killing. Usually hedge funds like Citadel, ETFs by BlackRock, and others.

And in several countries farmers are being blamed for higher prices. Governments should've given the sector a bit of help and control risks. Help with water management. Help with shrinking labor base and increasing costs. But nothing is being done.

There is a perverse system right now and action needs to be taken to heal the sector. But I bet they'll just keep blaming farmers and impose price controls or suppression of some kind. Fixing farming would take years and populist politicians want magic immediate results and shift-blame. So buckle up.

Re: The Coming Food Catastrophe

#50

Post by throwaway0x7E6 »

doodlebugging wrote: post #14

From doom-scrolling the Ukraine/Russia war it is pretty obvious that Ukrainian farmers have not been idle. Battles are being fought in the treelines and along rivers next to plowed and planted fields. Hopefully some of these crops are harvested and make it to market.

it would be a crime against Ukrainian people to export that grain though
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