Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

The tech sector teardown is more catharsis than crisis

ft.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

41–50 of 258 posts

Re: The tech sector teardown is more catharsis than crisis

#41

Post by WinstonSmith84 »

SemanticStrengh wrote: post #10

The only reason there is a recession is because people believe there is a recession

Yes, we were told there was not going to be any consequence of shutting down the entire economy followed by massive QE artificially bringing markets to ATH. And now we are in a QT environment with a few rate hike scheduled, while awaiting a demand crush ... all is fine, there shall not be any recession :-)

Fact is, these last few years have been entirely emotionally and panic driven by old people caring mostly about themselves

Re: The tech sector teardown is more catharsis than crisis

#42

Post by lumost »

plaidfuji wrote: post #9

My biggest question behind all of this is how interconnected is the tech bubble, and how self-perpetuating will a downturn be? The venture-backed startups that I’ve worked at have themselves utilized tools built by other venture-backed startups. It seems like there’s an entire cottage industry of SaaS tools designed to make it easier to scale up small companies. What will the effect of a startup downturn be on compan…

There are many B2B SaaS which have been negative gross on the theory that they are LTV positive.

If their customers start cutting expenses, we may see the LTV theory break.

Re: The tech sector teardown is more catharsis than crisis

#43

Post by koblas »

gitfan86 wrote: post #32
bearjaws wrote: post #22

I think this is just the correction that was inevitable as hiring had become a cargo cult. Everyone was hiring so everyone felt compelled to hire, creating a feedback loop of insane wages and offers. Now its time to pay the bills and many organizations realize the engineers they hired cannot possibly provide the value necessary to keep their job. I know one individual who got hired as a Sales Engineer for a platform…

I has a phone screen at Coinbase and they just threw out 380k as the salary without me saying anything as far as expectations. This reminds me of the dot com bubble. In 2000 people who had no software background and were making 50k would get offers for 80k, just for showing up at an interview and saying they know Java or HTML

Actually just had a discussion about this and putting the dollars out in front in the hiring process is something that more canidates are looking for in this competitive market. I'm sure it was said something like "this title (grade) pays 380k, is that's what you're hired at". Since levels.fyi has this all documented it still comes down to the interview and your ability to pass the interview and meet expectations for the level.

What they're trying to do is get you to continue with the process and potentially slow down any other interviews by putting the total compensation out there at the start.

Re: The tech sector teardown is more catharsis than crisis

#44

Post by jonwachob91 »

gitfan86 wrote: post #32
bearjaws wrote: post #22

I think this is just the correction that was inevitable as hiring had become a cargo cult. Everyone was hiring so everyone felt compelled to hire, creating a feedback loop of insane wages and offers. Now its time to pay the bills and many organizations realize the engineers they hired cannot possibly provide the value necessary to keep their job. I know one individual who got hired as a Sales Engineer for a platform…

I has a phone screen at Coinbase and they just threw out 380k as the salary without me saying anything as far as expectations. This reminds me of the dot com bubble. In 2000 people who had no software background and were making 50k would get offers for 80k, just for showing up at an interview and saying they know Java or HTML

Did they offer you the job or did they just state the expected compensation? b/c those are two different things. They could have told you the position paid $380k, and then assessed you were not qualified for the position and not extended an employment offer.

And when I say you, I don't actually mean you. I mean anyone they held interviews with and stated the expected compensation.

Re: The tech sector teardown is more catharsis than crisis

#45

Post by SemanticStrengh »

immigrantheart wrote: post #37
SemanticStrengh wrote: post #10

The only reason there is a recession is because people believe there is a recession

I wish I can create money for myself from my belief.

you can certainly destroy money by stopping consumming as a group, which will make enterprises downscale or even go bankrupt, resulting in net losses and autoamplifying effects. Why do I even have to explain that..

Re: The tech sector teardown is more catharsis than crisis

#46

Post by ctvo »

nemo44x wrote: post #39
kasey_junk wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I switched jobs this month and found it to be the hottest job market I’d ever encountered. That can change quickly but it hasn’t (hadn’t) happened as of a few weeks ago.

I think a month ago was a totally different time than today. I know of a few companies that froze most hiring (including in cases where an offer was about to go out) temporarily with the last couple weeks. Of course I haven’t sampled every company. Just a very sudden defensive position springing up more and more.

Meta very publicly announced a hiring slowdown, Netflix is introducing levels and slowing down hiring, Coinbase is slowing down hiring, etc..

Even with the above names slowing down hiring, I would guess big tech uses this opportunity to stockpile even more engineers to come out of this stronger. I don't see the competition for engineers that can pass those interviews slowing down.

Startups? Yes, the cohort that raised 20+ million Series As in the last two years and spent lavishly at the height of this bull run will start being much more defensive.

Re: The tech sector teardown is more catharsis than crisis

#47

Post by RandomLensman »

DebtDeflation wrote: post #33
RandomLensman wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not sure that follows. If (big "if") interest rates go up a lot, then a lot of investors might not reach for VC or PE to enhance their returns at even close to current allocation (and growth would be heavily discounted). Look at how the telecoms industry looks now compared to the heights of 2003 or so.

>If (big "if") interest rates go up a lot It's not a "big if" at all. Zero nominal rates and negative real rates are an anomaly in economic history over the last few centuries. Rates are headed higher, much higher. The Fed has been holding off in the hope that inflation would be "transitory" but it's now been a year and a half of >7% CPI increases with no sign of abating.

Agreed on the long history.

I'd still argue there is sizable "if" as one way to reduce government debt would be to use inflation (just like in the 1950s). So while rates will go up, the question is how much they will go up and if the level they reach will be high enough to cause substantial portfolio reallocations.

Re: The tech sector teardown is more catharsis than crisis

#48

Post by dado3212 »

chrisseaton wrote: post #31
kasey_junk wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hiring pause/freeze are not strictly defined terms. Some firms mean true freezes with no further hiring, others allow back fill for any position and still others allow backfill for nominated positions. I don’t know what Metas rules are but generally speaking strict hiring freezes are the rarest form.

Meta’s is so hard they’re revoking promised offers I’m hearing.

I don’t think that’s true, that’s based on one LinkedIn post that had some extenuating visa issues. Also hiring is still open for E5+ ML and E6+ generally.

Re: The tech sector teardown is more catharsis than crisis

#49

Post by heed »

koblas wrote: post #43
gitfan86 wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I has a phone screen at Coinbase and they just threw out 380k as the salary without me saying anything as far as expectations. This reminds me of the dot com bubble. In 2000 people who had no software background and were making 50k would get offers for 80k, just for showing up at an interview and saying they know Java or HTML

Actually just had a discussion about this and putting the dollars out in front in the hiring process is something that more canidates are looking for in this competitive market. I'm sure it was said something like "this title (grade) pays 380k, is that's what you're hired at". Since levels.fyi has this all documented it still comes down to the interview and your ability to pass the interview and meet expectations for…

Also notably CB doesn’t allow salary negotiation [0] so they just throw out high sounding number up front.

[0]: https://blog.coinbase.com/how-coinbase-is-rethinking-its-app...

Re: The tech sector teardown is more catharsis than crisis

#50

Post by htormey »

gitfan86 wrote: post #32
bearjaws wrote: post #22

I think this is just the correction that was inevitable as hiring had become a cargo cult. Everyone was hiring so everyone felt compelled to hire, creating a feedback loop of insane wages and offers. Now its time to pay the bills and many organizations realize the engineers they hired cannot possibly provide the value necessary to keep their job. I know one individual who got hired as a Sales Engineer for a platform…

I has a phone screen at Coinbase and they just threw out 380k as the salary without me saying anything as far as expectations. This reminds me of the dot com bubble. In 2000 people who had no software background and were making 50k would get offers for 80k, just for showing up at an interview and saying they know Java or HTML

I work at coinbase. We have standardized salary bands, this is just the salary at your level (comp plus equity, not sure if bonus is included). They are letting you know this up front to not waste your time.

One other thing that’s worth noting is that each year they give you a new equity grant. That grant I believe is priced based on the stock price over a period of 30 days in the first quarter.

Handy for limiting your downside if you are bearish about the economy.

Post reply on HN