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The tech sector teardown is more catharsis than crisis

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Re: The tech sector teardown is more catharsis than crisis

#31

Post by chrisseaton »

kasey_junk wrote: post #27
chrisseaton wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A hiring freeze isn’t pausing to stand still - as people continue to leave normally. So Meta’s ‘hiring pause’ is really shrinking the company rapidly.

Hiring pause/freeze are not strictly defined terms. Some firms mean true freezes with no further hiring, others allow back fill for any position and still others allow backfill for nominated positions. I don’t know what Metas rules are but generally speaking strict hiring freezes are the rarest form.

Meta’s is so hard they’re revoking promised offers I’m hearing.

Re: The tech sector teardown is more catharsis than crisis

#32

Post by gitfan86 »

bearjaws wrote: post #22

I think this is just the correction that was inevitable as hiring had become a cargo cult. Everyone was hiring so everyone felt compelled to hire, creating a feedback loop of insane wages and offers. Now its time to pay the bills and many organizations realize the engineers they hired cannot possibly provide the value necessary to keep their job. I know one individual who got hired as a Sales Engineer for a platform…

I has a phone screen at Coinbase and they just threw out 380k as the salary without me saying anything as far as expectations.

This reminds me of the dot com bubble. In 2000 people who had no software background and were making 50k would get offers for 80k, just for showing up at an interview and saying they know Java or HTML

Re: The tech sector teardown is more catharsis than crisis

#33

Post by DebtDeflation »

RandomLensman wrote: post #8
stackbutterflow wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've heard the argument that the dotcom crash was so catastrophic because the Internet as a market wasn't proven at that point. That'd mean a dotcom like crisis is the lowest point this industry can reach. Which in some way is reassuring.

Not sure that follows. If (big "if") interest rates go up a lot, then a lot of investors might not reach for VC or PE to enhance their returns at even close to current allocation (and growth would be heavily discounted). Look at how the telecoms industry looks now compared to the heights of 2003 or so.

>If (big "if") interest rates go up a lot

It's not a "big if" at all. Zero nominal rates and negative real rates are an anomaly in economic history over the last few centuries. Rates are headed higher, much higher. The Fed has been holding off in the hope that inflation would be "transitory" but it's now been a year and a half of >7% CPI increases with no sign of abating.

Re: The tech sector teardown is more catharsis than crisis

#34

Post by anthropodie »

kasey_junk wrote: post #29
nemo44x wrote: post #25

There’s nothing being funded right now. If you didn’t raise before earlier this year (and really late last year) and your runway is Reminds me more of 2016 than 2k though.

I switched jobs this month and found it to be the hottest job market I’d ever encountered. That can change quickly but it hasn’t (hadn’t) happened as of a few weeks ago.

I think we will need another 3-6 month to see full effect of whatever happened in last month everywhere.

Re: The tech sector teardown is more catharsis than crisis

#35

Post by Enginerrrd »

SemanticStrengh wrote: post #18
chillingeffect wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ppl believe there is a recession bc of specific macroeconomic conditions. Iirc you specifically described them a few days ago!

the base reasons do not matter much, the effect we will observe is order of magnitudes higher than the original reasons, because of the self fulfilling prophethy of autoreinforcing feedback and mediatic echo chambers. Every media that amplify the fear is responsible for an amount of suffering on earth. The 2008 crisis was mostly an absurdity that hurts the brain in retrospect. Thankfully I will make some money by buy…

>the base reasons do not matter much, the effect we will observe is order of magnitudes higher than the original reasons, because of the self fulfilling prophethy of autoreinforcing feedback and mediatic echo chambers

Ah... but this goes both ways. That's why we're in a bubble to begin with. Those same base reasons didn't matter as much because prices were way higher than you could really justify without those feedback loops on the positive side.

Re: The tech sector teardown is more catharsis than crisis

#36

Post by athrowaway3z »

SemanticStrengh wrote: post #10

The only reason there is a recession is because people believe there is a recession

I'm not sure how you can belief this terrible cliche to be true.

Without even bringing up money or inflation:

Oil and other products are in much higher demand compared to the supply than the current system can handle right this moment. You can get less of what you used to get and its obvious for everyone.

This has immediate consequences, but also compounding when slower/lower trade directly effects the ability for people to earn enough to stimulate more trade.

The immediate stuff would cause a recession in itself. Period. Nothing about economic beliefs. ( except if you include a desire to nationalize certain parts of the economy ). The compounding stuff can be mitigated in many ways. Personally I don't think its prudent to mitigate it with consumer debt. i.e. the only way I'm able to interpret your suggestion to not belief in a recession.

Re: The tech sector teardown is more catharsis than crisis

#38

Post by kbos87 »

plaidfuji wrote: post #9

My biggest question behind all of this is how interconnected is the tech bubble, and how self-perpetuating will a downturn be? The venture-backed startups that I’ve worked at have themselves utilized tools built by other venture-backed startups. It seems like there’s an entire cottage industry of SaaS tools designed to make it easier to scale up small companies. What will the effect of a startup downturn be on compan…

The idea that there’s money to be made not in industry X, but supporting industry X has been taken to the extreme in spaces like crypto where that’s pretty much all the space consists of.

I can’t think of more than a few examples of successful, scaling companies that are actually using blockchain as a means to an end that doesn’t come back to “building the infrastructure for the use of blockchain” in some way.

Re: The tech sector teardown is more catharsis than crisis

#39

Post by nemo44x »

kasey_junk wrote: post #29
nemo44x wrote: post #25

There’s nothing being funded right now. If you didn’t raise before earlier this year (and really late last year) and your runway is Reminds me more of 2016 than 2k though.

I switched jobs this month and found it to be the hottest job market I’d ever encountered. That can change quickly but it hasn’t (hadn’t) happened as of a few weeks ago.

I think a month ago was a totally different time than today. I know of a few companies that froze most hiring (including in cases where an offer was about to go out) temporarily with the last couple weeks.

Of course I haven’t sampled every company. Just a very sudden defensive position springing up more and more.

Re: The tech sector teardown is more catharsis than crisis

#40

Post by tjpnz »

chrisseaton wrote: post #21
tjpnz wrote: post #14

There's been a lot of posturing here over the years about how doesn't do layoffs, but we're starting to see that not even they are immune anymore. I hope everyone has some savings put aside if things really do turn to shit.

A hiring freeze isn’t pausing to stand still - as people continue to leave normally. So Meta’s ‘hiring pause’ is really shrinking the company rapidly.

Wasn't singling out Meta specifically, but based on how relentless they had been with their recruiter spam there must be a lot of disappointed folk out there.
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