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U.S. Air Force says it conducted successful hypersonic weapon test

reuters.com

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Re: U.S. Air Force says it conducted successful hypersonic weapon test

#101
post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's hard to argue that MAD isn't in effect right this second. If there was no threat of massive retaliation and possible resulting extinction is there any doubt Russia would have used nuclear weapons in it's Ukraine invasion?

Why would they? There are 8 million Russians living in the country, and close social ties besides. Putin consistently lies and says 80% of the population is Russian and that Ukraine is Russia. Plus the fact that Russian people are generally not psychopathic murderers, the invasion could only be acknowledged as a limited operation, they depend on the world and European economies, the military destroyed other countries…

>Why would they?

Because they would win with the resources they have available. It's not that complicated.

Re: U.S. Air Force says it conducted successful hypersonic weapon test

#102
post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would they? There are 8 million Russians living in the country, and close social ties besides. Putin consistently lies and says 80% of the population is Russian and that Ukraine is Russia. Plus the fact that Russian people are generally not psychopathic murderers, the invasion could only be acknowledged as a limited operation, they depend on the world and European economies, the military destroyed other countries…

>Why would they? Because they would win with the resources they have available. It's not that complicated.

[deleted]

Re: U.S. Air Force says it conducted successful hypersonic weapon test

#103
post #89
post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> US missile defense system, which the US doesn't really even have Uh..Missile defense is a massive part of US Navy doctrine and is pretty much the primary purpose of every Destroyer, Cruiser, and soon Frigate in the Navy at this point. Without a doubt, the Aegis system and THAAD are the direct reason for these developments from China and Russia.

Sure, but that doctrine is old. And has it not been partially obsoleted by China's advances in missile technology? My understanding was that our fleets have sufficient defense for a limited attack but that a full scale missile attack by China would quickly overwhelm them.

Aegis is continually evolving with new sensors, processing, and missiles and far from obsolete. It's no coincidence that China is building similar capabilities into its own Destroyers.

I definitely would't call the scale of missile defense in the fleet limited. Each carrier group would contain and be screened by Destroyers and Cruisers with several hundred interceptors ready to go between them.

Re: U.S. Air Force says it conducted successful hypersonic weapon test

#104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Reading through the timeline on that page, it sounds like Congress has decided to kill the project. I wonder if this successful test will turn that around.

Biden's bumping up the military budget by tens of billions of dollars, that's what's turning this around. We finally got ourselves out of the Middle East, but we gotta keep the military-industrial complex fed, I guess. We already spend more total and per capita than the next top ten countries combined. It's so sad. We could do so much domestically, or just worked on influencing foreign policy by helping other countri…

The problem with military spending is that if you choose your investments very judiciously, you end up not being attacked. And if you are not attacked, it looks like all the investment was for nothing.

Re: U.S. Air Force says it conducted successful hypersonic weapon test

#105
post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hypersonics are already being used in warfare today [1][2][3]. They are already practical weapons and gaining parity in offensive and defensive capabilities is critical. [1] https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/22/europe/biden-russia-hypersoni... [2] https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2022/05/russia-has-fired-... [3] https://www.euronews.com/2022/05/10/russia-fires-hypersonic-...

> Russia is thought to have an HGV in its arsenal. > .. > But the Kinzhal, as a variant of the Iskander SRBM, is not an HGV

The CNN article is taking the definition of an HGV entirely out of context from the underlying CSIS article it links. From the CSIS article:

> Russia’s Northern Fleet has begun preparations to deploy the air-launched ballistic missile Kh-47M2 Kinzhal on MiG-31K carriers. The deployment of the new hypersonic weapon is consistent with Russia’s ongoing and persistent efforts...

Not all hypersonics are HGVs/skip-glide weapons.

Re: U.S. Air Force says it conducted successful hypersonic weapon test

#106
post #85
post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not practical for US who has platforms to hit global targets at much lower costs, i.e. money spent on hypersonic research can build up enough JASSMs to last until WW5. But IMO useful backup if adversaries manage to negate platforms like carriers and long range bombers. Basically, establishing conventional MAD with CONUS Prompt Global Strike using icbm/hypersonics. Flip side is this is massively benefitial to PRC (or…

Honest question, how would you describe MAD as being practical? Bearing in mind that the treaties to maintain it were abandoned, and both sides invest (and act) heavily in rocking the boat?

Stressing that advanced hypersonics is venturing past nuclear MAD but building towards conventional MAD made feasible by proliferation of advanced rocketry as dual-use components become commoditized and US/west lose monopoly on space infra used for targetting/guidance. It's a new kind of mutual vunerability where strategic infra that underpins modern society i.e. semi fabs, server farms, energy nodes, captial ships docked for maintenance etc can be targetted by more and more players.

In terms of practicality, we were "stuck" with nuclear MAD because meter level surgical intercontinental strike capbility has so far been pipe dream. With nuclear MAD, we had stability-instability paradox, increase chance of low level conflicts against non nuclear states while nuclear states operated with relative impunity. Conventional MAD = even 3rd rate countries can potentially import a bunch of global strike ICBM platforms to threaten pain points of any would be attacker. Most countries can't sustain modern airforce let alone forward project carrier groups, but many countries can build some concrete tunnels to hide sufficient amount ICBM TELs to increase deterrence. It's not nuclear tier deterrance, but ability threaten some critical infra is better than current posture where most countries can't inflict pain more than a few hundred km outside their borders.

I don't know how things will change but my position is balance will have to shift once advanced rocketry proliferates because that's boat that everyone will want to rock simply because dual purpose conventional rocketry won't be subject to arms control. It's going to be about how states with advanced rocketry programs can control proliferation, i.e. US wants to seed Asia with IRBMs that can threaten PRC, and PRC starts exporting hypersonics to South America or other countries that can threaten US global assets.

Re: U.S. Air Force says it conducted successful hypersonic weapon test

#107
post #103
post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, but that doctrine is old. And has it not been partially obsoleted by China's advances in missile technology? My understanding was that our fleets have sufficient defense for a limited attack but that a full scale missile attack by China would quickly overwhelm them.

Aegis is continually evolving with new sensors, processing, and missiles and far from obsolete. It's no coincidence that China is building similar capabilities into its own Destroyers. I definitely would't call the scale of missile defense in the fleet limited. Each carrier group would contain and be screened by Destroyers and Cruisers with several hundred interceptors ready to go between them.

This might've been the article that I read, which seems to disagree:

"The inconvenient truth is that our Navy has 12 carrier groups and all are now obsolete. The Chinese have developed an antiship ballistic missile (ASBM), the DF-21D, nicknamed the “carrier killer.” It has a range of 1,200 miles and can fly at speeds higher than Mach 5. During descent to the target, it can fly at Mach 10. That’s like launching one in Chicago and hitting the Statue of Liberty three minutes later.

We have no missile-defense systems that can counter the DF-21D. The Navy has a ballistic-missile-defense system, but the problem is it doesn’t work. Last year the Navy performed a test in which it tried to intercept two ASBMs. It couldn’t hit either one. This was a planned test—the Navy knew when the missiles were coming, from what direction and how many. Imagine a surprise attack on a carrier with 20 missiles incoming at the same time."

https://www.wsj.com/articles/navy-aircraft-carrier-fleet-bat...

Re: U.S. Air Force says it conducted successful hypersonic weapon test

#108
post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's hard to argue that MAD isn't in effect right this second. If there was no threat of massive retaliation and possible resulting extinction is there any doubt Russia would have used nuclear weapons in it's Ukraine invasion?

Why would they? There are 8 million Russians living in the country, and close social ties besides. Putin consistently lies and says 80% of the population is Russian and that Ukraine is Russia. Plus the fact that Russian people are generally not psychopathic murderers, the invasion could only be acknowledged as a limited operation, they depend on the world and European economies, the military destroyed other countries…

Azovstal would have been a "perfect" time to use nuclear weapons, or on Poland for allowing passage of weapons to Ukraine.

Re: U.S. Air Force says it conducted successful hypersonic weapon test

#109
post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bah... A SLBM (sub-launched ballistic missile) can reach a coastal target in less than five minutes depending on the exact trajectory. Good luck trying to intercept that.

Presumably addressing this threat is what America's 50+ SSNs are for.

[deleted]

Re: U.S. Air Force says it conducted successful hypersonic weapon test

#110
post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Honest question, how would you describe MAD as being practical? Bearing in mind that the treaties to maintain it were abandoned, and both sides invest (and act) heavily in rocking the boat?

Stressing that advanced hypersonics is venturing past nuclear MAD but building towards conventional MAD made feasible by proliferation of advanced rocketry as dual-use components become commoditized and US/west lose monopoly on space infra used for targetting/guidance. It's a new kind of mutual vunerability where strategic infra that underpins modern society i.e. semi fabs, server farms, energy nodes, captial ships d…

I see, thanks. I hope you're wrong.
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