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Not a single car was sold in Shanghai last month

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Re: Not a single car was sold in Shanghai last month

#341
post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

COVID is airborne, so lockdowns in a dense city do not work. Cleaning surfaces doesn't do anything, those plastic dividers also don't do anything. The regular masks barely do anything. The N95 masks only work until people take them off and they eventually have to. Vaccines only work for a short time, but they do reduce deaths because the eventual infection is not as severe. Basically not a single thing that we did ac…

Lockdowns have been very effective each time they have been enforced. Shanghai the latest example. Things go wrong when they are prematurely lifted. People only have to take their masks off to eat/drink. Do that outside, or within your own home. Vaccines have been extraordinarily successful in reducing sickness and death, and indeed transmission. However, alone they are not enough to quell Covid. Disease acquired imm…

Nonsense. The virus is here to stay. Regular people aren't going to spend the rest of their lives wearing masks. Disease acquired immunity works very well for most patients. You are spreading irresponsible misinformation.

https://peterattiamd.com/covid-part2/

Re: Not a single car was sold in Shanghai last month

#342

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US has lasted well over 200 years.

Well unless you skip over that whole Civil War thing where the states weren’t exactly “united”

The Union remained a democracy throughout that war.

Re: Not a single car was sold in Shanghai last month

#343
post #244

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Almost every member of the State Council of China consists of people with STEM degrees (mostly engineering), followed by some with an economics/finance background.

I'm sorry I was a bit unclear. I don't take much issue with "run by engineer types", but really I'd question the assumption that they "were fairly rational". Why do people hold that assumption? Is it because "engineer types" must be rational? Personally I haven't been struck by the rationality of the PRC government.

What's unclear is your use of the word "rational". It appears you are using that word to mean "actions that are in accordance with values I approve of" instead of its common meaning which is more along the lines of "actions that are consistent with ones reasons".

As long as the CCP behaves in a way that is consistent with its own system of reasoning, the CCP is behaving rationally. You may disagree with their reasons, and their reasons may even be immoral, but on the whole I wouldn't say the CCP are doing anything particularly irrational.

A few simple tests to determine if someone is behaving rationally is whether their actions are predictable and consistent. Given that their stance on COVID has been very consistent the past two years, it's not accurate to call them irrational about it.

Re: Not a single car was sold in Shanghai last month

#344

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You cannot get a STEM degree if you are incapable of thinking logically. The same is not true for other degrees. Therefore, it makes sense to connect the two.

> You cannot get a STEM degree if you are incapable of thinking logically. I'm not really sure what you're basing this off of. I've worked in prominent universities teaching math classes and would definitely not make such a claim. > Therefore, it makes sense to connect the two. No it doesn't. What does STEM have to do with running a country anyway? Would you say that McNamara's policies were correct in Vietnam? I'm n…

>I'm not really sure what you're basing this off of. I've worked in prominent universities teaching math classes and would definitely not make such a claim.

I think you're being deliberately obtuse here. Are you genuinely making the claim, based on your experience at prominent universities, that people graduating from STEM fields are incapable of thinking logically? Do you want us to believe that there is no strong relationship between the ability to acquire an undergraduate degree in fields that involve math and science and the capacity to think logically?

If that's the case, then so be it, but then I think most people will simply end the conversation at the point since you possibly have a very warped/skewed view of this topic that makes it hard for you to reason about it objectively.

>No it doesn't. What does STEM have to do with running a country anyway?

No one claimed that the two are connected, all that was claimed is that those in charge of the CCP have engineering backgrounds and hence are very likely to be capable of rational thinking.

Re: Not a single car was sold in Shanghai last month

#345
post #341

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lockdowns have been very effective each time they have been enforced. Shanghai the latest example. Things go wrong when they are prematurely lifted. People only have to take their masks off to eat/drink. Do that outside, or within your own home. Vaccines have been extraordinarily successful in reducing sickness and death, and indeed transmission. However, alone they are not enough to quell Covid. Disease acquired imm…

Nonsense. The virus is here to stay. Regular people aren't going to spend the rest of their lives wearing masks. Disease acquired immunity works very well for most patients. You are spreading irresponsible misinformation. https://peterattiamd.com/covid-part2/

"Regular People" might find they have to do things they previously wouldn't - like wearing seatbelts.

Reinfection is now understood to be common - after all, Omicron is spreading rapidly though a population that is not only vaccinated, but also largely already had Covid.

Be aware, almost nobody stands to gain from making Covid seem worse than it is, but many many powerful people stand to lose from public health interventions to prevent Covid, so gain from downplaying the problem. I wonder which Peter Attia is? "As his residency drew to a close, Attia joined the consulting firm McKinsey & Company in the Palo Alto office as a member of the Corporate Risk Practice and Healthcare Practice."

Re: Not a single car was sold in Shanghai last month

#346
post #341

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nonsense. The virus is here to stay. Regular people aren't going to spend the rest of their lives wearing masks. Disease acquired immunity works very well for most patients. You are spreading irresponsible misinformation. https://peterattiamd.com/covid-part2/

"Regular People" might find they have to do things they previously wouldn't - like wearing seatbelts. Reinfection is now understood to be common - after all, Omicron is spreading rapidly though a population that is not only vaccinated, but also largely already had Covid. Be aware, almost nobody stands to gain from making Covid seem worse than it is, but many many powerful people stand to lose from public health inter…

Reinfection is not a serious concern. While patients can get reinfected, symptoms are typically mild. Did you even listen to the podcast I linked? It contains a panel discussion with several noted experts that Dr. Attia brought in to explain the real situation.

Regular people aren't going to wear masks regardless of what the alarmists say.

Re: Not a single car was sold in Shanghai last month

#347

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> From April 2020 through the end of 2021, people in China were out and about, living their lives almost as normal. Nobody knew anyone who was getting sick, much less dying. The hospitals weren't overflowing. Almost nowhere was under lockdown. During this time, the Economist's model spits out a death toll of over a million. China has 4x the number of people living there as the US. Back in November 2020, approximately…

I don't live in the USA, but since the beginning of 2020 until now basically everyone I know has had covid. No direct contacts I know went to the hospital or died, but I also don't know that many people who are older. My friends in China on the other hand know no one who has had covid, let alone someone who went to the hospital or died. That could maybe be media control, but I don't buy it. They tried that in Wuhan a…

> since the beginning of 2020 until now basically everyone I know has had covid

Yes, but that is the entirety of the pandemic, including the Omicron wave. Prior to Omicron (i.e. Winter 2021), it was estimated only about 30% of Americans had contracted Covid. Just in the last 6 months it has increased to over 60%. But in my original comment, I specifically called out the time frame from the beginning of the pandemic to November 2020 in the US. The total number of Americans to have contracted covid by that point was actually quite small, and very few people personally knew anyone, or at most one or two people, who had actually had the disease. It was still largely something people heard about through the news, and saw secondary effects of like mask mandates, rather than something they personally had experienced by that point.

Now take that same death rate, halve it, and spread it not over 6 months, but 24, and yes, it would be very easy for things to feel like business as usual, even if 1.7 million individuals in China had died from the disease. The point isn't that China has had it just as bad as the rest of the us. The point is that even if they have faired remarkably well comparatively, 1.7 million deaths is entirely plausible in a country with 1.4 billion people and some of the strongest state controls over individuals on the planet.

> And how do you explain they didn't have mass lockdowns for 2 years and now they are back?

The reason they are back to extreme lockdowns is Omicron. Just look at the peaks elsewhere in the world compared to what was considered "bad" waves previously. It makes them look like blips. It's so contagious that even China cannot contain the spread without extreme measures.

Re: Not a single car was sold in Shanghai last month

#348

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s known to happen and there is absolutely no way to test how often it happens, so this kind of handwaving is opinion masked as science. And it doesn’t really matter, because the lockdown tactic only works with COVID-zero, not with COVID-one. So even if only one infection spreads from wildlife, you’re back at square one and you can start your lockdowns all over again. And don’t think you can just detect the infecti…

Shenzhen currently tests almost everybody every 48 hours. "Whenever someone asks to see my health code, I feel embarrassed. On the lower left-hand side of my code, in the “nucleic acid testing” section, a green code with the words “within a week” flashes up – not the blue “24-hour negative” or the purple “48-hour negative” codes needed to enter most public venues in Shenzhen." My residential compound even installed a…

Mass deaths of 80+ years olds you mean?

Re: Not a single car was sold in Shanghai last month

#349

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't live in the USA, but since the beginning of 2020 until now basically everyone I know has had covid. No direct contacts I know went to the hospital or died, but I also don't know that many people who are older. My friends in China on the other hand know no one who has had covid, let alone someone who went to the hospital or died. That could maybe be media control, but I don't buy it. They tried that in Wuhan a…

> since the beginning of 2020 until now basically everyone I know has had covid Yes, but that is the entirety of the pandemic, including the Omicron wave. Prior to Omicron (i.e. Winter 2021), it was estimated only about 30% of Americans had contracted Covid. Just in the last 6 months it has increased to over 60%. But in my original comment, I specifically called out the time frame from the beginning of the pandemic t…

> The total number of Americans to have contracted covid by that point was actually quite small, and very few people personally knew anyone, or at most one or two people, who had actually had the disease.

If 30% of Americans had been infected by November 2020, then most people would know many people who had contracted CoVID-19. Unless you only know 2 people (plus yourself - that makes 3), chances are that you know someone who was infected before November 2020. Based on my personal experience, that's true. I personally know many Americans who got CoVID-19 before November 2020. I don't know a single person in China who got CoVID-19 in that timeframe (or to this day).

> it would be very easy for things to feel like business as usual, even if 1.7 million individuals in China had died from the disease

No, it would not feel at all like business as usual. First of all, a death toll of 1.7 million deaths implies around 450 million infections, or about 30% of the Chinese population. As we know from everywhere around the world, that would have meant stressed hospitals (and given how few ICU beds China has, it would have been much more stressed than the US).

Because Chinese cities were almost completely open at this time, with very few restrictions on public gatherings, restaurants, etc., there would have been extremely sharp epidemic waves that would have swept through Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, and all the other major cities. Everyone would know. Everyone would have friends, family members, colleagues, etc. who had gotten infected. Every doctor and nurse in the country would have seen countless CoVID-19 patients.

Simply put, none of this is the case.

If you think it's plausible, you have a fantasy view of China. We're not talking about Mars here. We're talking about a country of 1.4 billion people, with tens of millions of its citizens living abroad, with a million expats living inside its borders, with many millions of people who use VPNs. And even with internet censorship in China, it's impossible to keep major events like a large CoVID-19 outbreak secret. Just think of all the stories from the Shanghai lockdown that have spread around the world, despite internet censorship.

Re: Not a single car was sold in Shanghai last month

#350
post #346

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Regular People" might find they have to do things they previously wouldn't - like wearing seatbelts. Reinfection is now understood to be common - after all, Omicron is spreading rapidly though a population that is not only vaccinated, but also largely already had Covid. Be aware, almost nobody stands to gain from making Covid seem worse than it is, but many many powerful people stand to lose from public health inter…

Reinfection is not a serious concern. While patients can get reinfected, symptoms are typically mild. Did you even listen to the podcast I linked? It contains a panel discussion with several noted experts that Dr. Attia brought in to explain the real situation. Regular people aren't going to wear masks regardless of what the alarmists say.

> symptoms are typically mild

Has that been definitively shown? It was not so long ago that re-infection was thought to be very rare. I don't think our understanding of the effects of repeat infections is very good yet - not least because we are at the beginning of this (reinfection was much rarer before Omicron).

But Regular People ended up wearing seatbelts? If mask mandates come back, then yes they will wear them too.

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