Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Not a single car was sold in Shanghai last month

bloomberg.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

281–290 of 366 posts

Re: Not a single car was sold in Shanghai last month

#281

Post by elsonrodriguez »

ctoth wrote: post #201

Whenever I think about the situation in China it makes me wonder why the Chinese government is spending so much political capital to keep people from getting infected by such an incredibly transmissible disease. I had this idea that China was run by engineer types who were fairly rational. From the initial denial that there was any disease at all, to later saying it wasn't transmissible between humans, to the obvious…

One of many possible reasons they are doing this is to practice for a deadlier disease and develop a playbook of what works, what doesn't, how to feed people, how to quell unrest, etc.

Re: Not a single car was sold in Shanghai last month

#282

Post by loeg »

jacobolus wrote: post #154
loeg wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China isn’t distributing the effective western vaccines to its citizens. Also their death numbers are a complete fiction.

The Chinese vaccines do provide substantial protection against the most severe outcomes, though the mRNA vaccines are indeed better. Countries using such vaccines should be trying to provide at least an mRNA booster, especially to people at high risk. The bigger problem though is that a significant proportion of elderly people remain unvaccinated. Look what happened in Hong Kong to see a prediction of what will happe…

> The Chinese vaccines do provide substantial protection against the most severe outcomes

I would not be surprised if this was true, but is there any independent evidence of that?

> The bigger problem though is that a significant proportion of elderly people remain unvaccinated.

Yes -- in part because of what I mentioned in the previous comment.

Re: Not a single car was sold in Shanghai last month

#283

Post by tinus_hn »

minsc_and_boo wrote: post #278
tinus_hn wrote: post #274

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Now if only COVID didn’t spread through wildlife this would be some kind of victory. But it does, so a few weeks after the end of the lockdowns COVID will be back and all this sacrifice will be for nought.

Based on the evidence available, there is no reason to believe COVID spread from wildlife is anything other than rare. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/daily-life-coping/...

It’s known to happen and there is absolutely no way to test how often it happens, so this kind of handwaving is opinion masked as science. And it doesn’t really matter, because the lockdown tactic only works with COVID-zero, not with COVID-one. So even if only one infection spreads from wildlife, you’re back at square one and you can start your lockdowns all over again. And don’t think you can just detect the infection before it spreads because a large proportion is asymptomatic and even if it is not, the spread starts before the symptoms.

Re: Not a single car was sold in Shanghai last month

#284

Post by wutbrodo »

twic wrote: post #240
abeppu wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Everyone other than the Chinese government seems to agree that a zero covid policy isn't realistic anymore. And empirically, they haven't succeeded. But ... why is that the case? Why _doesn't_ an ultra-strict lockdown for this long prevent spread (and allow existing cases to resolve)? What are the remaining opportunities for it to spread? Throughout 2021, I had sort of told myself that most of the harms of the pandem…

So, firstly, because you can't actually do that. If literally everyone stays at home for three weeks, then there is nobody to staff power plants, water plants, etc, and those services fail. There are also no ambulances to help people who fall ill at home, no hospitals to take them to. No police to chase after people who decide to break lockdown and loot some deserted shops or prey on isolated families. No firemen to…

Thank you for making the effort to type out such a clear explanation.

Covid further ratcheted up my hopelessness in people's ability to maintain the most basic grasp on how reality works. But in the early days, it was insanity-inducing to try and reason with friends who though the solution was a super-easy "just have every single person lock themselves inside with 100% compliance for two weeks and poof".

It's an unfortunate consequence of the complexity that allowed society to become so unimaginably rich that many people are so detached from the reality of what it takes to make everything work; it's even more unfortunate that these people vote.

Re: Not a single car was sold in Shanghai last month

#285

Post by harpersealtako »

twic wrote: post #252
twh270 wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That would get you banned from 95% of Reddit subs. (Kidding, mostly..)

Reddit is ruled by a cabal of "leftists", but of the "progessive" strain, rather than the "tankie" strain. Criticism of China and communism is fine almost everywhere.

I honestly see more CCP apologists on here than I usually see on reddit (though I don't hang around the places where I'd assume they usually comment I guess, with the exception of a certain popular gacha game subreddit). For example: try mentioning the Uyghur genocide here, you'll be surprised how many people come out of the woodwork to muddle the conversation.

Re: Not a single car was sold in Shanghai last month

#286

Post by minsc_and_boo »

tinus_hn wrote: post #283
minsc_and_boo wrote: post #278

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Based on the evidence available, there is no reason to believe COVID spread from wildlife is anything other than rare. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/daily-life-coping/...

It’s known to happen and there is absolutely no way to test how often it happens, so this kind of handwaving is opinion masked as science. And it doesn’t really matter, because the lockdown tactic only works with COVID-zero, not with COVID-one. So even if only one infection spreads from wildlife, you’re back at square one and you can start your lockdowns all over again. And don’t think you can just detect the infecti…

Again, there is no evidence to suggest that COVID transmission from wildlife happens other than in rare cases. Suggesting that it does happen because we just don't know is considered an argument from ignorance.

It's important to make these evidence-based distinctions because there are a variety of people looking to grab on to whatever they can to support their biases wrgt science and COVID.

Re: Not a single car was sold in Shanghai last month

#287

Post by yakak »

FooBarWidget wrote: post #258
yakak wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1. Their vaccines are not good and they didn't make mRNA vaccines despite the freedom from royalties for political reasons. 2. Omicron death rate is not as substantially lower as it appears in the west as this is largely explained by previous infection survivor bias, vaccination, and improvements in understanding about care.

1. Vaccine quality is a multifaceted issue. "Not good" really means not good at preventing transmission, compared to mRNA, for the original strain. Since Omicron, all vaccines are "not good" at this. When it comes to preventing severe disease and death, Chinese vaccines work just fine, both for the original strain and for Omicron. It's arguably "less good" in the sense that it requires 3 shots instead of 2, but resea…

China has delivered a 2 dose equivalent per person as opposed do 3-4 mRNA doses for the most vulnerable (1st and 2nd booster.)

So I think it is fully understandable why Shanghai is closed with this set of choices.

In terms of safety, I would be more concerned about measurable heart events etc. We are pumped full of plastic, fumes, poorly tested drugs and forever chemicals so focusing on a few ml of vaccine during a short spell as the cause of all your problems is like looking for your keys wherever there's a lamp post.

Re: Not a single car was sold in Shanghai last month

#288

Post by livueta »

captainmuon wrote: post #22

Does anybody know what the situation is in the rest of China? I hear there are a couple of strict lockdowns in other cities, and some districts of Beijing. China has in the past justified their harsh measures because the relative majority could live without Covid restrictions (and illness and deaths of course). It would be interesting to see what portion of the population is on lockdown, but it is hard to find good s…

Definitely not just Shanghai and Beijing.

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2022/05/15/g...

> According to Ting Lu and colleagues of Nomura, another bank, 41 cities accounting for nearly 30% of China’s gdp were still in full or partial lockdown on May 10th.

Re: Not a single car was sold in Shanghai last month

#289

Post by minsc_and_boo »

akomtu wrote: post #235
ctoth wrote: post #201

Whenever I think about the situation in China it makes me wonder why the Chinese government is spending so much political capital to keep people from getting infected by such an incredibly transmissible disease. I had this idea that China was run by engineer types who were fairly rational. From the initial denial that there was any disease at all, to later saying it wasn't transmissible between humans, to the obvious…

Cynical take: covid is a pretense here, it's actually a fire drill. China wants Taiwan and is prepairing its populace for life under martial law.

That is a cynical take, because China doesn't need to declare martial law (in Shanghai or elsewhere) if it were to take Taiwan in this scenario.

It's more likely that martial law is very good at stopping transmission of a plague with R0 = 7-12

Re: Not a single car was sold in Shanghai last month

#290

Post by Animats »

tinus_hn wrote: post #283
minsc_and_boo wrote: post #278

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Based on the evidence available, there is no reason to believe COVID spread from wildlife is anything other than rare. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/daily-life-coping/...

It’s known to happen and there is absolutely no way to test how often it happens, so this kind of handwaving is opinion masked as science. And it doesn’t really matter, because the lockdown tactic only works with COVID-zero, not with COVID-one. So even if only one infection spreads from wildlife, you’re back at square one and you can start your lockdowns all over again. And don’t think you can just detect the infecti…

Shenzhen currently tests almost everybody every 48 hours.

"Whenever someone asks to see my health code, I feel embarrassed. On the lower left-hand side of my code, in the “nucleic acid testing” section, a green code with the words “within a week” flashes up – not the blue “24-hour negative” or the purple “48-hour negative” codes needed to enter most public venues in Shenzhen."

My residential compound even installed a new electronic door, linked to a scanner. When someone enters, they must scan their health code, and that will open the door if it detects a test result taken within 48 hours. Otherwise, it lets out a loud screech: “Unqualified, unqualified!”[1]

Yes, it takes a surveillance society. There's phone tracking. There's face recognition. There are checkpoints. But there are not mass deaths.[2]

[1] https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3176014/sta...

[2] https://www.scmp.com/tech/policy/article/3172642/chinese-tec...

Post reply on HN