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Not a single car was sold in Shanghai last month

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Re: Not a single car was sold in Shanghai last month

#271

Post by wrycoder »

erellsworth wrote: post #192
gfodor wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The end result of Communism is always the same, but the details vary. It’s fundamentally fragile.

Except China isn't exactly communist. They're a "socialist market economy." Yes, the government exerts a lot of control and owns a great deal of industry, but there's also a significant private sector. It's basically state capitalism, closer to fascism with a blending of state and corporate interests. Communism is not just another word for authoritarian. Totalitarian regimes come in a variety of economic flavors.

Ok, nationalistic totalitarian socialist-corporatists, then.

Fascists, in other words.

Re: Not a single car was sold in Shanghai last month

#272

Post by DiogenesKynikos »

belter wrote: post #165
DiogenesKynikos wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Economist's model is complete nonsense when it comes to China. The Economist trained a black box machine learning algorithm on data from a bunch of countries that let the virus rip, and then blindly applied the resulting model to China. Garbage in, garbage out. From April 2020 through the end of 2021, people in China were out and about, living their lives almost as normal. Nobody knew anyone who was getting sick,…

"China hiding real Covid deaths by masking cause of death: Report" "Amid a massive surge in COVID-19 cases in China, Beijing is trying to hide the real death toll by masking the cause of death. Citing Financial Times, Taiwan News reported that if someone dies after contracting COVID-19 but had, for example, cancer, heart disease, or diabetes at the time, Chinese hospitals would not classify the death as resulting fro…

First, taiwannews.com is not even remotely reliable for anything related to mainland China. This is the same outlet that claimed the Three Gorges Dam was about to break last year. Taiwannews.com loves disaster stories about China, and isn't afraid to invent them.

Second, all these stories about China supposedly concealing deaths in the Shanghai outbreak came out just a few weeks after cases began to rise. Back then, there were only a handful of reported deaths. A few weeks later, there have been over 500 deaths (roughly in line with what one would expect, given the number of infections), and these claims of concealing deaths look pretty silly. Deaths always lag cases, and there can also be reporting delays.

Re: Not a single car was sold in Shanghai last month

#273

Post by throwaway0x7E6 »

abeppu wrote: post #164
_fat_santa wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've been following the situation and it's absolutely wild. It all stems from their Zero covid policy, they are the only country still perusing it, to the absolute detriment and destruction of everything else it seems. With how fast Omicron spreads, zero-covid is simply untenable these days but China is trying... The basic report is that people are starving. The government has provided food but the food situation is…

Everyone other than the Chinese government seems to agree that a zero covid policy isn't realistic anymore. And empirically, they haven't succeeded. But ... why is that the case? Why _doesn't_ an ultra-strict lockdown for this long prevent spread (and allow existing cases to resolve)? What are the remaining opportunities for it to spread? Throughout 2021, I had sort of told myself that most of the harms of the pandem…

>But ... why is that the case? Why _doesn't_ an ultra-strict lockdown for this long prevent spread (and allow existing cases to resolve)? What are the remaining opportunities for it to spread?

because it only takes one infected individual to infect the whole world. that's what the Wuhan patient zero did, according to the official legend. 3 months between the fated bat soup and worldwide lockdowns.

covid is here to stay forever. that's pretty clear now, 2.5 years in. despite a global hysteria and massive financial incentives to develop tests, vaccines and treatment, objectively we have pretty much nothing. things are as bad now as they were two years ago, just with much less hysteria in the media now that they thankfully got something else to screech about

Re: Not a single car was sold in Shanghai last month

#274

Post by tinus_hn »

Animats wrote: post #266
ctoth wrote: post #201

Whenever I think about the situation in China it makes me wonder why the Chinese government is spending so much political capital to keep people from getting infected by such an incredibly transmissible disease. I had this idea that China was run by engineer types who were fairly rational. From the initial denial that there was any disease at all, to later saying it wasn't transmissible between humans, to the obvious…

Because it works. Shenzhen is not locked down, but they test everybody several times a week. Singapore is down to 5 of 16 districts with COVID. China's zero-COVID policy worked quite well against the pre-omicron variants, with R around 3. It's a tough struggle against omicron, with R around 7. The US just passed one million COVID deaths. The US's "declare a victory and go home" policy is not working. The US case rate…

Now if only COVID didn’t spread through wildlife this would be some kind of victory. But it does, so a few weeks after the end of the lockdowns COVID will be back and all this sacrifice will be for nought.

Re: Not a single car was sold in Shanghai last month

#275

Post by belter »

DiogenesKynikos wrote: post #272
belter wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"China hiding real Covid deaths by masking cause of death: Report" "Amid a massive surge in COVID-19 cases in China, Beijing is trying to hide the real death toll by masking the cause of death. Citing Financial Times, Taiwan News reported that if someone dies after contracting COVID-19 but had, for example, cancer, heart disease, or diabetes at the time, Chinese hospitals would not classify the death as resulting fro…

First, taiwannews.com is not even remotely reliable for anything related to mainland China. This is the same outlet that claimed the Three Gorges Dam was about to break last year. Taiwannews.com loves disaster stories about China, and isn't afraid to invent them. Second, all these stories about China supposedly concealing deaths in the Shanghai outbreak came out just a few weeks after cases began to rise. Back then,…

"The pandemic’s true death toll"

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-...

Re: Not a single car was sold in Shanghai last month

#276

Post by DiogenesKynikos »

CorrectHorseBat wrote: post #227
NeutralCrane wrote: post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> From April 2020 through the end of 2021, people in China were out and about, living their lives almost as normal. Nobody knew anyone who was getting sick, much less dying. The hospitals weren't overflowing. Almost nowhere was under lockdown. During this time, the Economist's model spits out a death toll of over a million. China has 4x the number of people living there as the US. Back in November 2020, approximately…

I don't live in the USA, but since the beginning of 2020 until now basically everyone I know has had covid. No direct contacts I know went to the hospital or died, but I also don't know that many people who are older. My friends in China on the other hand know no one who has had covid, let alone someone who went to the hospital or died. That could maybe be media control, but I don't buy it. They tried that in Wuhan a…

If I can give my personal experience, most people I know in the US and Europe have had CoVID-19. A few of them have had quite serious cases.

None of the people I know in China has gotten CoVID-19. They don't even personally know anyone who's gotten CoVID-19. The closest I've gotten is that I know one person in China who has a family member who was a close contact of an infected person. The family member had to quarantine at home for one week and get tested regularly, but didn't end up getting infected.

But people with no connection at all to China believe it's somehow plausible that the virus has rampaged through the population and killed 1.7 million people, without so much as a peep getting out.

Re: Not a single car was sold in Shanghai last month

#277

Post by Teever »

krageon wrote: post #260
CogitoCogito wrote: post #256

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm sorry I was a bit unclear. I don't take much issue with "run by engineer types", but really I'd question the assumption that they "were fairly rational". Why do people hold that assumption? Is it because "engineer types" must be rational? Personally I haven't been struck by the rationality of the PRC government.

You cannot get a STEM degree if you are incapable of thinking logically. The same is not true for other degrees. Therefore, it makes sense to connect the two.

But you can get a law degree like most of the US political class if you do think illogically?

What is your world view on education like exactly?

Re: Not a single car was sold in Shanghai last month

#278

Post by minsc_and_boo »

tinus_hn wrote: post #274
Animats wrote: post #266

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because it works. Shenzhen is not locked down, but they test everybody several times a week. Singapore is down to 5 of 16 districts with COVID. China's zero-COVID policy worked quite well against the pre-omicron variants, with R around 3. It's a tough struggle against omicron, with R around 7. The US just passed one million COVID deaths. The US's "declare a victory and go home" policy is not working. The US case rate…

Now if only COVID didn’t spread through wildlife this would be some kind of victory. But it does, so a few weeks after the end of the lockdowns COVID will be back and all this sacrifice will be for nought.

Based on the evidence available, there is no reason to believe COVID spread from wildlife is anything other than rare.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/daily-life-coping/...

Re: Not a single car was sold in Shanghai last month

#279

Post by kurthr »

natch wrote: post #101
kurthr wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How would you take delivery of a car when in lockdown? Maybe if you're a big white (Tyvek suited enforcer) you could pick it up? Why after two weeks of being locked into your apartment would you decide to buy a car you couldn't pickup, sight unseen?

Delivery != sale. If they are tabulating deliveries, they should use the word that matches their meaning, instead of a different word.

Since I used both the words delivery and sale in different ways... I think that buy == sale and delivery == pick up.

So when I ask,

   "Why after two weeks of being locked into your apartment would you decide to *buy* a car you couldn't *pick up*, sight unseen?",
I do not mean that delivery didn't take place, I mean that purchase == sale == buy likely did not take place, because the buyer could neither go and look at the vehicle, nor would they be likely to electronically purchase a vehicle that they couldn't pick up while confined to their apartment.

Does that make sense?

Even if you're a member of the party who gets to wear a white suit and go out in public, you're unlikely to be able to take possession of a vehicle since that dealership is not open, because they can't leave their house. So it still doesn't make sense to purchase, which means there is unlikely to be a sale, electronic or no, even for those privileged to be able to pick one up.

Re: Not a single car was sold in Shanghai last month

#280

Post by DiogenesKynikos »

belter wrote: post #275
DiogenesKynikos wrote: post #272

Earlier quoted context omitted.

First, taiwannews.com is not even remotely reliable for anything related to mainland China. This is the same outlet that claimed the Three Gorges Dam was about to break last year. Taiwannews.com loves disaster stories about China, and isn't afraid to invent them. Second, all these stories about China supposedly concealing deaths in the Shanghai outbreak came out just a few weeks after cases began to rise. Back then,…

"The pandemic’s true death toll" https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-...

I discussed The Economist's model a few comments up in this chain. It's a case of garbage-in, garbage-out.

When a black box ML model spits out a highly surprising answer that contradicts everything that is known, your response should be, "Why should I believe this model?"

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