Earlier quoted context omitted.
I will preface this statement by stating that I know nothing about the stock market and let my retirement account be handled by an investor... What real math is involved in predicting the stock market? I understand there is a lot of theory behind TRYING to predict it, just as there is a lot of study in trying to predict trends in the stock market, which is why you are better off investing in groups of stocks as oppos…
>I don't see a huge amount of difference in crypto except for physical assets, which don't cover the stock price for public companies, generally. Stocks represent part of real businesses which produce real goods or real services. So they are tangible. Crypto are just some bits somewhere. They don't represent anything meaningful.
Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?
571–580 of 670 posts
Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?
#572Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?
#573I am not happy that it’s crashing. As always it’s the little guys losing their money while the big guys are walking away with tons of money. I would celebrate if the big crypto players list their shirts. They lose a little but still walk away with huge ill gotten gains. P We have created a culture where quick money gets celebrated and regular work doesn’t pay off anymore. It’s no surprise that people get sucked into…
I think we will look back on crypto and marvel at it being the most effective voluntary transfer of wealth in memory.
Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?
#574Earlier quoted context omitted.
Speculative bubble. Or just bubble. People buy it because they expect the price to go up. The price goes up so more people buy it expecting further gains. The fundamentals arguably don't justify such a high price, and so you have a speculative bubble. Eventually, the bubble will pop and most investors will lose money. I suspect BTC is a bubble because everything it does can be done better by other things. I also susp…
> People buy it because they expect the price to go up. Some* people buy it because they expect the price to go up. Other people are switching to bitcoin because it is better money than their local currency. > everything it does can be done better by other things Like what? Trustless transfer of money governed by a protocol that is highly decentralized and secure.
USD, EUR, GBP and CHF are less volatile. The countries that manage them all have good credit ratings. Compare to BTC which has lost >55% of its value in the last 6 months. And you're calling that a currency?
Using safe fiat, or even gold, would be the "boring" solution because it doesn't go up in value much. If anything, it slowly loses value, but nothing among those 4 beats the >55% / 6mo drop of BTC.
If you're concerned about inflation, a finance expert might give you a "boring" lecture on how to counter it.
Maybe there should be a guide to the "boring" solutions to the problem that crypto supposedly solves in an "exciting" and (for now) lucrative way.
Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?
#575It's less that I'm glad the market is crashing, and more that I'm glad that the insufferable crypto bros are finally getting a punch to the mouth. Seriously, these people are the worst. Your average "crypto investor" has no skills, no mathematical foundations, nothing. Except for pure stupid luck, and the ability to spew inane crypto babble 24/7. And yes, they think they are much smarter than you, because they achiev…
Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?
#576Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Transfers of wealth from productive to unproductive industries arent risks worth rewarding Down that path lies authoritarianism: who decides what is productive? Is art productive? Is your comment on HN productive? Is beer productive? Is Haskell productive? Are you productive? It isn’t hard to argue most everything is non-productive. Remove all non-productive uses of money or time, and what is left?
It's not surprising to me whatsoever that within that same sentence that as you said, "leads to authoritarianism", is a reference to absolute morality and sin. The scariest part of this line of thinking being so common is that it has happened! We've bench-marked humanity towards productivity before: dosed drinking water with amphetamines instead of fluoride and outlawed art and mandated labor at tank factories. Produ…
Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?
#577Earlier quoted context omitted.
What makes it not a pyramid scheme is that by owning the stock you own part of Amazon, and Amazon makes money by providing a service to users. The inflow of money comes from the users of its product, not future suckers.
If Amazon makes a million or trillion dollars, none of that money goes to shareholders. The only thing that affects the value of the amazon stock you hold is the willingness of someone else to buy that stock from you at a price higher or lower than what you purchased it for. Your return on investment on Amazon stock is 100% reliant on the purchases of future suckers. If tomorrow every one just decided not to buy Amaz…
Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?
#578Oh what a perfect post in which to see all the absurdly emotional, dismissive, ridiculous crypto hate that this site's commentators just can't seem to stop grasping at rise to the surface.... A supposed "hacker" community filled with people who will reach for any convoluted reason they can to utterly sling shit at a whole complex range of technologies that despite its many bad uses has also proven to be a very intere…
I hate to say this, because I find accusations of "whataboutism" to be frequently annoying and pedantic, but this is textbook whataboutism. No one is saying that the energy we're currently spending communicating via some HN backend, our coal-powered ISPs or offices, or any other element of the current state of technology is somehow clean of waste or C02 pollution or morally right. It's not justified merely by its existence. But the "what about?" here is that you can make sound arguments for the existence of social media. I might use it to plan events, to talk with friends, to keep in touch with old relatives or colleagues, to sell old furniture, to promote my new album or art show. Some people use social media to discuss politics, physics, current events, critical theory, to review consumer products, to question authority. Critics say that it can be used to stalk and harass people, to spread propaganda, to malevolently perform psychological experiments on people without their knowledge, to track and isolate them, to shorten their attention spans, to keep them addicted. In actuality, I tend toward the latter - I think that both the kWh and psychic energy people spend on social media is likely to their own detriment, that it should be regulated, that it should be government owned as a public infrastructure product: I think that there are many things that can be improved.
One can be critical of energy waste in general, but find it particularly egregious for certain applications. I don't think it's a waste of electricity to keep the lights on at car factories, to fuel research in alternative energies, to develop and administer medical treatments, to help transport and grow food. I make these assessments in light of what would happen should they not exist. What if Bitcoin didn't exist? Well, I personally can't think of a reason why it would or wouldn't affect me. I do not know how Bitcoin is used other than to speculate on its price movement.
In the case of Bitcoin... no such arguments exist. Bitcoin isn't used, it is held. It is passive, amoral, algorithmic. I cannot buy coffee with it. I cannot trust in it to hold its value or act as an investment vehicle. I cannot change it, only spin off the fundamentals into a new experiment. The experiments done with Bitcoin in the past have not resulted in a market for it. I do not need it. It does not solve a problem for me. So, the argument goes, why should the fans be spinning? Why spend the energy? At least with social media I can understand why it exists and why people pour energy (both kWh and psychic energy) into it. But with Bitcoin, I simply don't see the value proposition. This isn't "hate" or "emotional" - it's a dispassionate conclusion that I've come to from observing the world around me. You can say I'm incorrect, sure, but I'm happy to have that discussion with real world data.
What about my social media? What about my cat videos? What about your HN post? What about fraud and transaction fees? What about "hackers"? Isn't the hacker ethos to dispassionately analyze, to experiment (and recognize failures), to improve upon, to dream big, and to recognize when a risk is too great? Isn't blind acceptance just as bad as stubbornness to accept the "new"?
> Frankly, it's a shame to the very most basic idea of the word "hacker" that these negative arguments should be used to totally condemn something like considering how interestingly it's being explored in the wider world.
How exactly is crypto/blockchain being explored in the wider world? JPEG sales? Pump and dumps? Risky experiments being labeled as "stable" and then crashing in less than 24h? It's certainly interesting. But do I think it's good? Do I want to own it? No, and I don't. It's not shit-slinging or burying my head in the sand. I've been following crypto for 10 years and find it interesting in the utmost. But I find lots of things interesting that I don't really think are good: serial killers, super-viruses, philosophical zombies, research chemicals, smartphones, automatic cars, the "metaverse". Increasingly, I'm seeing reasons to believe crypto should be ranked more among the latter than the real technological improvements that are being made right now.
Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?
#579Earlier quoted context omitted.
You own voting rights, that's it. The recent Twitter stuff emphasized this. Some people were wondering why they can't just refuse to sell their stock (if the deal passes the various requirements, which includes a shareholder vote) if they don't want to. The reason is because they don't actually own anything, just a vote. If the company as a whole decides to go become a new entity (going from public to private in this…
Actually, the Twitter stuff emphasized just the opposite - even after the board agreed to the sale, a majority of shareholders (well, specifically, a majority of the voting power as determined by shares) still had to agree. And because they did, Musk is on track to own Twitter. Facebook also demonstrates it - Zuckerberg and a few others (many of whom have given him voting power on their behalf) own 'Class B' stock, w…
the stock exchanges really missed a trick by not prohibiting this sort of bullshit
Re: Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?
#580Earlier quoted context omitted.
> What real math is involved in predicting the stock market? Are we really comparing the two markets? Owning a stock means owning a piece of a business. If you have all the stock in the world, you seized all means of production, good job. If you own all the UnpossibleJimCoins in the world what exactly has changed? Oh but that coin is not insert another coin , it doesn't have the consensus/cult.
Owning a stock is not the same as having controlling interest in the business and being able to take home your share of profits (or suffer your share of losses) from the business. It is interesting how the mind works to confuse these two things. Also, in the limit, if you owned all the stock in the world, you have destroyed the stock market. Because ultimately, stock market is about speculating the future potential o…