Finland will seek NATO membership immediately • Hacker News Board

Re: Finland will seek NATO membership immediately

#751

Post by shreyshnaccount » Thu, May 12, 2022, 4:28 PM UTC

Regic wrote: post #729

rich_sasha wrote: post #496

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Vetos are somewhat overrated. Agents may have the right to veto, but might not have the power to deal with the consequences. Russia has a UN veto and uses it, because they can weather the consequences. Could Hungary piss off all of its allies, trade partners, basically everyone but Russia? Doubtful. Hungary is playing a skillful, if somewhat devious, game of balancing between Russia and the West. But an outright FU t…

The hungarian leading party (fidesz) has already declared they will not veto Ukrain's adoption to the EU so I personally really doubt they would veto Finland's entry to the NATO. They are playing a double-game (sorry, this probably doesn't make sense in english, it's a hungarian expression): Orban had a famous quote he said to EU leaders "don't listen to what I say, only to what I do", which in practice means alienat…

To stray from the topic, the double game phrase does make sense to me, possibly because it's also a Hindi phrase

Re: Finland will seek NATO membership immediately

#752

Post by oaiey » Thu, May 12, 2022, 4:29 PM UTC

throwaway894345 wrote: post #193

b112 wrote: post #174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One of the issues of allowing more and more people into NATO, is that potential for fracturing of the alliance increases. Especially, the original core alliance was very aligned after WWII, politically. However as NATO expands east, the potential for issues down the road grows. Look at the Ukraine. Let's imagine that this horrible war never happened, Russia never attacked, and that the Ukraine would join NATO in 2023…

Does NATO have a process for ejecting a member?

Considering that NATO is effectively non functional without the US, the process does not need to be written down. The US president can just make it happen as long as his rationale is supported by 90% of NATO. Defense alliances are a trust thing, not a contract thing.

Re: Finland will seek NATO membership immediately

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Post by VictorPath » Thu, May 12, 2022, 4:29 PM UTC

toxik wrote: post #714

wolverine876 wrote: post #583

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> All 8 parties represented there have collaborated on this. Imagine a country where one major party doesn't sell itself by obstructing everything.

To be fair, there is no partisan issues in the US over helping Ukraine either. People unite against a common enemy -- it's like that old wisdom, the worst thing to happen to the US was winning the cold war.

That was why Victoria Nuland was in Euromaidan Square stirring up this new cold war.

Re: Finland will seek NATO membership immediately

#754

Post by GolDDranks » Thu, May 12, 2022, 4:29 PM UTC

jl2718 wrote: post #740

Regimes change. I expect soon. Then what? Are we still locked into opposition with the Russian people? Given a blank slate, what relationship do we want between NATO/EU countries and Russia?

As a Finn, I sincerely wish we could come along with our Russian neighbors, but Russia need to change for that to happen. Democracy, human rights and the concepts freedom of speech, freedom of press and a concept of transparent, rule-based society with little corruption are the keywords, but they haven't truly taken root in the Russian culture and system of thought.

Re: Finland will seek NATO membership immediately

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Post by denton-scratch » Thu, May 12, 2022, 4:31 PM UTC

KptMarchewa wrote: post #369

Wildgoose wrote: post #312

Earlier quoted context omitted.

NATO aggressively bombed Serbia over the issue of Kosovo. I don't know how anyone can seriously claim "NATO is purely a defensive pact" with a straight face. I think that bombing Serbia was probably the rupture that has led us to the terrible situation we have in Ukraine now.

Being a "defensive pact" does not exclude preventing genocide next to it's borders. The fact that you call it "the issue of Kosovo" is telling.

> Being a "defensive pact" does not exclude preventing genocide next to it's borders.

Actually, it does. Kosovo and Iraq are clear evidence that NATO is not a defensive pact. Neither attack was preceded by a judicial ruling that genocide was occurring (and genocide is very difficult to prove).

I'm afraid those attacks seriously undermined NATO's moral authority as a "defensive pact".

Re: Finland will seek NATO membership immediately

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Post by denton-scratch » Thu, May 12, 2022, 4:33 PM UTC

CRConrad wrote: post #503

Wildgoose wrote: post #417

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is really telling is your admission that NATO is also an Offensive Alliance, which is exactly the point I was making, and which has led directly to this tragedy.

Preventing genocide next door is defense, not offense. Just like in Ukraine now. The most Offensive thing here is your defense of genocidal wars of aggression.

> Preventing genocide next door is defense, not offense.

If the way you choose to prevent genocide is by marching an army into a foreign country, that's called "offense". Your argument is sophistical.

Re: Finland will seek NATO membership immediately

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Post by tsimionescu » Thu, May 12, 2022, 4:33 PM UTC

Tabular-Iceberg wrote: post #696

tsimionescu wrote: post #537

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps, but trying to become a NATO member has a much higher chance of getting you embroiled in a war than not doing that. This continued escalation can't help but lead to nuclear war, our leaders are playing an extremely dangerous game of chicken. If anything, Russia's botched invasion of Ukraine should show other countries in the region that there isn't so much to fear from them, and that NATO can be counted for h…

Is it not possible that it would be preferable to both sides, even in a hot NATO-Russian war to stick with conventional weapons? Russia just wants Lebensraum, which would be ruined by nukes, and NATO would probably not want to seem excessively cruel to Russian civilians when their purpose is supposed to be entirely defensive.

Testing something like this is dangerously close to the brink. It's highly unlikely that the losing side would agree to lose without using their most powerful weapon, and it's highly unlikely that NATO would wait for a Russian first strike, which they would likely believe very possible, especially given all the demonization of Putin and Russia.

Don't forget that there have already been numerous close calls in terms of nuclear war, without anything close to a conventional war as background.

Re: Finland will seek NATO membership immediately

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Post by pastacacioepepe » Thu, May 12, 2022, 4:34 PM UTC

rich_sasha wrote: post #737

pastacacioepepe wrote: post #730

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Quoted post unavailable.

> I'll remind you that Russia is a democracy and Putin is a democratically elected leader, as much as Biden is. And people in the USA have much less trust for the democratic process than Russians at the moment. Erm... huh? You cannot, not in a million years, compare the democratic processes of US or EU states with what's going on in Russia. I'm not even sure where to start. How about this then: Russia's premier oppos…

No post body was provided.

Re: Finland will seek NATO membership immediately

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Post by volkl48 » Thu, May 12, 2022, 4:39 PM UTC

mach1ne wrote: post #443

KptMarchewa wrote: post #366

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That was the leading thought before we were shown how ineffective Russian conventional military is.

Indeed they demonstrated that, but don't underestimate the effect an existential crisis like this has. We will almost certainly see heavy changes coming to the Russian military. It could be that in five to ten years their military is actually capable, after both structural and strategical upgrades. And the lines we now draw between NATO, Russia and China could well be the lines of a WW3 within a decade. Hopefully not…

They've claimed to be doing those heavy changes for the last ten years and this is what they have to show for it.

Being cut off from nearly all advanced technology and with a terrible economy doesn't sound like a recipe for improving much in that sense either.

Re: Finland will seek NATO membership immediately

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Post by kayodelycaon » Thu, May 12, 2022, 4:40 PM UTC

rendall wrote: post #664

kayodelycaon wrote: post #510

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Denmark controls access to the Baltic Sea. https://www.google.com/maps/place/Baltic+Sea/@55.685476,11.0... And Estonia and Finland control access to Russia's only ports in the Baltic Sea. https://www.google.com/maps/place/Baltic+Sea/@60.5931556,25....

> "Estonia and Finland control access to Russia's only ports in the Baltic Sea" Not a true statement, your map notwithstanding. Denmark has an ironclad, centuries old agreement with the international community called the Copenhagen Convention never to restrict shipping or charge toll. Did you not know this?

> Did you not know this?

I did not. I don't know exactly what to look for, but all I found was a single paragraph on the Sound Dues article on Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sound_Dues#Copenhagen_Conventi...