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Finland will seek NATO membership immediately

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Re: Finland will seek NATO membership immediately

#161

Post by jusssi »

ssl232 wrote: post #52

Usual caveats that I'm not a diplomat, don't have all the facts, etc etc., but this doesn't seem like a rational move for Finland or NATO. The UK just yesterday agreed to protect Finland in the event of an attack, and the UK's involvement would likely bring in many other NATO powers anyway, so arguably they're getting protection they'd otherwise have to pay for for free. And actually, officially joining NATO will hav…

From the Finnish point of view the case for NATO has become quite clear. There were a number of reasons why we used to believe Russia won't be invading us any time soon.

1. The invader would suffer a massive penalty for their reputation: didn't stop them from invading Ukraine.

2. The invader would be hit with massive economic sanctions: see 1.

3. Even unassisted, we would be able to mount a defense that can cause major losses to the invading force: see 1.

4. Even though there's no formal defense pact, surely the west would come to our aid: Putin says "serious consequences, remember we got nukes", west backs down.

And as a bonus:

5. If, against all odds, they decide they still want to invade and we get no help from the west, there's no point to actually fight back because they'll crush us like a fly in the end, so we should just surrender immediately: looking at Ukraine, this is no longer obvious.

Usual caveats apply, but I believe the main benefit for NATO is to prevent point 5 from happening.

Re: Finland will seek NATO membership immediately

#162

Post by logifail »

sph wrote: post #47
thematrixturtle wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This more or less seals Finland applying for NATO membership. However, adding new members requires unanimous consent from all existing members, so it's not guaranteed to be smooth sailing. Russia is also obviously deeply unhappy about this and will do its best to disrupt the process via direct and indirect pressure.

How can Russia pressure and disrupt the process when NATO members are the ones most afraid of Putin? Finland's doing this only because of Russia's actions. I can't imagine anybody vetoing Finland's membership. In fact, the more the merrier^Hstronger.

> In fact, the more the merrier^Hstronger

Umm ... wasn't that what people thought of the alliances and treaties[0] just before the First World War?

[0] https://www.iwm.org.uk/history/what-you-need-to-know-about-p...

Re: Finland will seek NATO membership immediately

#163

Post by mcv »

rocqua wrote: post #141
martimarkov wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They can also be kicked out ;) Edit: Here is some thoughts one it: https://politics.stackexchange.com/questions/28337/on-what-g...

AFAIK kicking someone out of NATO is very difficult. Otherwise I suspect that about 5 years ago Turkey would have been at risk of being removed.

It would be a serious problem for NATO if a pro-Russian Hungary could basically act as a fifth column and cripple NATO by vetoing everything. There simply has to be a process to kick out insincere members.

Re: Finland will seek NATO membership immediately

#164

Post by donthellbanme »

M2Ys4U wrote: post #69
thematrixturtle wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This more or less seals Finland applying for NATO membership. However, adding new members requires unanimous consent from all existing members, so it's not guaranteed to be smooth sailing. Russia is also obviously deeply unhappy about this and will do its best to disrupt the process via direct and indirect pressure.

>However, adding new members requires unanimous consent from all existing members, so it's not guaranteed to be smooth sailing. I highly doubt that any of NATO's members will veto an application from Finland (or Sweden).

No post body was provided.

Re: Finland will seek NATO membership immediately

#165

Post by stoltzmann »

aa-jv wrote: post #152
klausjensen wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

NATO "expanded" when sovereign, democratic countries CHOSE to apply for NATO-membership, completely voluntarily, because they beleive it was and is the best deterrent for Russia to invade them. A lot of countries bordering Russia have been invaded in the past 30 years by Russia. Always leaving a trail of warcrimes, poverty, rapes, murdered and tortured civilians etc. None of these countries were NATO members. No wond…

>completely volutarily The CIA has entered the chat. >A lot of countries bordering Russia have been invaded in the past 30 years by Russia. I assure you, the West has invaded - and left in utter ruin - far more sovereign democratic nations than Russia has. It was only able to do that due to NATO support, from which bases many crimes against humanity and war crimes have been committed. The Russians know this about NAT…

Do you have a single fact to back up your accusation of CIA meddling with NATO membership?

The truth is, that countries want to join NATO so that Russia does not invade them. That's the sole reason.

Re: Finland will seek NATO membership immediately

#166

Post by yakubin »

ssl232 wrote: post #112
rightbyte wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Finland should have applied for NATO 10 years ago or in 10 years, not now with the tense situation. They are essentially stating that Russian gov. is aggressive enough to be a threat to them in the future but not agressive enough right now to create a "border dispute" to prevent NATO membership. My take is that they should just have stayed out of the Russia US power game completely.

> My take is that they should just have stayed out of the Russia US power game completely. I think so too. The West would tolerate invasion by Russia of Finland even less than it is doing for Ukraine, with or without NATO membership (notably, Ukraine is not part of NATO either). All this seems to be doing is escalating the situation with a man who is perhaps more interested in holding onto power and his own life than…

> The West would tolerate invasion by Russia of Finland even less than it is doing for Ukraine, with or without NATO membership (notably, Ukraine is not part of NATO either).

That's not saying much. Ukraine isn't receiving military support from NATO countries. It only gets weapons, and western politicians (mostly US) keep making sure that they do not get the big guns (regarding e.g. airplanes). Initially Germany blocked Estonia from giving weapons to Ukraine, and English airplanes carrying weapons for Ukraine had to make a detour not to cross German airspace. If Ukraine was a NATO state, none of that could happen, even with some politicians being cozy with Russia, as was evident now.

Re: Finland will seek NATO membership immediately

#167

Post by logifail »

baud147258 wrote: post #156
nonameking2026 wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They can do a lot of things. None which are good for Russia but their leaders might perceive this as a direct threat to their sovereignty and take extreme measures. Either they stop this now or it's all over anyway. This is reckless - we need to start a path of de-escalation - give Putin an offramp. Get to back to calm waters. Then let diplomats do their little dances until there is a hopefully more reasonable people…

If I were living in Finland, I'd feel safer (against external aggression) if the country was in NATO than if it wasn't.

> If I were living in Finland, I'd feel safer (against external aggression) if the country was in NATO than if it wasn't

Finland might feel safer once they're in NATO.

The rest of NATO (and non-NATO states in Western Europe), perhaps not quite so much. Surely the risk of NATO being involved in any conflict only increases as NATO grows?

Re: Finland will seek NATO membership immediately

#168

Post by trash8435798 »

rightbyte wrote: post #96
GolDDranks wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The current Baltic NATO states and Norway are much easier to defend having control over the Baltic Sea, plus Finland has a considerably strong military that now joins to strengthen NATO, so it should be a win-win for the both sides.

Why are we pretending conventional war between NATO and Russia is a thing?

If that's the case, why does the border need "expensive patrolling" (which is already done by Finland anyway)?

Re: Finland will seek NATO membership immediately

#169

Post by adwn »

nonameking2026 wrote: post #108
sph wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How can Russia pressure and disrupt the process when NATO members are the ones most afraid of Putin? Finland's doing this only because of Russia's actions. I can't imagine anybody vetoing Finland's membership. In fact, the more the merrier^Hstronger.

They can do a lot of things. None which are good for Russia but their leaders might perceive this as a direct threat to their sovereignty and take extreme measures. Either they stop this now or it's all over anyway. This is reckless - we need to start a path of de-escalation - give Putin an offramp. Get to back to calm waters. Then let diplomats do their little dances until there is a hopefully more reasonable people…

> Either they stop this now or it's all over anyway. This is reckless - we need to start a path of de-escalation - give Putin an offramp. Get to back to calm waters.

Putin has demonstrated again and again that he will interpret any de-escalating, sensible political moves as weakness. Any attempt at appeasement or compromise will be seen by him as an invitation to dare the next aggressive step.

Re: Finland will seek NATO membership immediately

#170

Post by antris »

fsloth wrote: post #2

There was some discussion on plausible NATO membership of Finland and Sweden. At that point the disucssion was based on guestimates from media. But now it's official. This is not the NATO membership application, but a statement from the political leadership in Finland that they support and suggest parliament proceeds with the application process with maximum urgency. The President and Prime Minister of Finland have p…

>Translation: During the spring, there has been an important discussion about Finland's possible NATO membership

This is a very generous description of what happened.

There has been air of forced consensus in the "discussion" between media, politicians and people on social media. People have been branded as "putinist" or "playing into Putin's hand" for merely suggesting that the decision shouldn't be rushed, and that there needs to be thorough analysis before making a decision.

Media hasn't covered Nato's history as an aggressive force, or the war profiteering. The "risks of Nato membership" have been reduced to a framing of "what will Russia do during the application process", which implies that Finland is going to join Nato anyway.

There have been a few critical voices interviewed in the media, mainly Anna Kontula. The response to this has been between "I see your points, but I don't agree with your conclusions" to "you are playing into Putin's hands" to nitpicking and taking her statements out of context in order to get a "gotcha" on her. Not any real engagement or discussion on the arguments.

Whether you agree with Finland joining Nato or not, I think there are good arguments to be made on either side. But to say that there has been any real discussion is a stretch at best. This process was rushed.

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