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Homes in 97% of U.S. cities are overvalued, Moody's says

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Re: Homes in 97% of U.S. cities are overvalued, Moody's says

#181

Post by jt_b »

01100011 wrote: post #150
elephanteeee wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What’s the mismatch? Biden got a trillion or two in handouts and Powell bought up all the bonds. Now Biden is taking a step back (not completely but not another trillion) and Powell said he’ll start selling.

Pretty sure the covid stimulus passed while trump:Biden was/is president is like 2:1. Not giving either one a pass though because Biden reappointed Powell and failed to give Powell the political direction to raise rates late last year when it was obvious inflation was anything but transitory.

The Federal Reserve is independent of the executive branch's political aims. Its mandate is to keep inflation and unemployment in check with the tools it has at its disposal (interest rates, balance sheet).

Re: Homes in 97% of U.S. cities are overvalued, Moody's says

#182

Post by abxytg »

pm90 wrote: post #36
coward123 wrote: post #7

I can’t help but think of that saying “the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” Yes, prices in many markets are very high and appreciating at a rapid clip, but if there are buyers, competition, and houses are continuing to move quickly, then it’s a bold statement to say they are overvalued and that we should predict a significant decline.

> but if there are buyers, competition, and houses are continuing to move quickly, They’re not though. Thats the whole problem. Asset bubbles can inflate the paper value and there might still be some trading activity. But if nobody can actually buy the asset, it’s pretty much useless.

Oh man yes they are. Buying a house right now is a complete circus and lottery. Competition is insane and everything sells in two weeks max.

Re: Homes in 97% of U.S. cities are overvalued, Moody's says

#183

Post by fennecfoxen »

serf wrote: post #99
rufus_foreman wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> Isn't this one of those "If everyone is crazy, you're crazy" situations? No. Hopefully you aren't using that justification to do something stupid.

>No. just no? group consensus and participation shapes nearly every human endeavor; why do you think that this round-a-bout consensus (97%) is unrelated?

Because for all that today's sales prices are driven by that consensus, you can do math on the expected future income stream (including imputed rent) (adjusting it for interest rates and inflation and risks) and determine that it comes up a bit short by most measures.

Re: Homes in 97% of U.S. cities are overvalued, Moody's says

#184

Post by brewdad »

streetcat1 wrote: post #86

I would say that the rental market was undervalued, vs the housing market. The real correction is occurring in the rental market.

Doubtful. The rental market has stayed consistent with incomes. VERY few people have seen their incomes rise 25% in the past year. Most urban markets have seen that kind of growth in house prices.

Re: Homes in 97% of U.S. cities are overvalued, Moody's says

#185

Post by digitaltrees »

pcmoney wrote: post #174
oicU00 wrote: post #170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don’t forget to mention they still have full health coverage in the EU. It’s not possible to afford housing or robust healthcare in the US. Keep in mind there’s no rule we have to tolerate either. Imagine being a teenager in the US, having just seen how essential workers are treated, knowing in all likelihood your future is an “essential worker”. Then watch Congress scapegoat Facebook.

“Full health coverage” according to all my EU and especially British friends I would still be on a waitlist for a surgery I had 2+ years ago.

Zombie argument. This has been show to be inaccurate numerous times.

Re: Homes in 97% of U.S. cities are overvalued, Moody's says

#186

Post by fennecfoxen »

s5300 wrote: post #24
melissalobos wrote: post #4

Isn't this one of those "If everyone is crazy, you're crazy" situations? If every house is overvalued by some metric, then maybe the metric is wrong. People's perceptions of value are a large part of the actual value(meaning what someone would really pay) for things like housing that should depreciate over time.

Not when you have a populace that is by definition average & in need of a place to live/start a family, but have an external investor class of the foreign ultra rich or Wall street douche canoes buying everything up because fuck you & they can. Crazy if you believe most of our nation should be essentially indentured servants for basic housing. Something like that, I think.

"essentially indentured servants" is a bit rhetorically distracting, don't you think? Let's pin that down. What's a reasonable amount of work that a human should be expected to do to live? Not just housing, but food, and whatever else.

Re: Homes in 97% of U.S. cities are overvalued, Moody's says

#187

Post by _uy6i »

asta123 wrote: post #160

They may be overvalued but don't see how they could fall without forced sales. At start of pandemic borrowers got mortgage repayment holidays in Australia - so didn't have to sell if you got into financial trouble. Yesterday one of major bank bosses telling borrowers to call the bank if rising interest rates and cost of living getting people into difficulty. Somehow they will work it out whatever that means.

Price formation is complicated - think about the fact 5-6m home sales a year, at the price for 80-90m homes, if the composition of those buyers and sellers changes, that changes the “implied” price for everyone

Re: Homes in 97% of U.S. cities are overvalued, Moody's says

#188

Post by seizethegdgap »

pcmoney wrote: post #174
oicU00 wrote: post #170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don’t forget to mention they still have full health coverage in the EU. It’s not possible to afford housing or robust healthcare in the US. Keep in mind there’s no rule we have to tolerate either. Imagine being a teenager in the US, having just seen how essential workers are treated, knowing in all likelihood your future is an “essential worker”. Then watch Congress scapegoat Facebook.

“Full health coverage” according to all my EU and especially British friends I would still be on a waitlist for a surgery I had 2+ years ago.

I'm waiting 4 months to see my GP for a physical in Wisconsin.

Re: Homes in 97% of U.S. cities are overvalued, Moody's says

#189

Post by digitaltrees »

conductr wrote: post #139
brewdad wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We'll find out over the next 6-12 months. At some point, a lot of home buyers started shopping by payment without regard to total price. With interest rates near their lowest in anyone's lifetimes that was workable. With interest rates rising, as buyers who haven't locked in lower rates begin looking at the current payments on offer, they will have to look at lower priced homes or drop out of the market. If this boom…

The concept of the cash buyer is a bit of a farse as well. What usually takes place is a cash offer. They just need to proof of funds to do this. But then, they get financing to close. Nobody in their right mind is putting that sum of cash in real estate when they could borrow at 2% or whatever it was before the recent run up. The mortgage interest even has favorable tax treatment so it’s effectively much less. Oh an…

Actually there a lot on business owners that can’t get mortgages because they don’t don’t have stable income reported on a w2. It can often be easier to buy cash and refinance than try to get a purchase mortgage

Re: Homes in 97% of U.S. cities are overvalued, Moody's says

#190

Post by grapeskin »

pcmoney wrote: post #174
oicU00 wrote: post #170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don’t forget to mention they still have full health coverage in the EU. It’s not possible to afford housing or robust healthcare in the US. Keep in mind there’s no rule we have to tolerate either. Imagine being a teenager in the US, having just seen how essential workers are treated, knowing in all likelihood your future is an “essential worker”. Then watch Congress scapegoat Facebook.

“Full health coverage” according to all my EU and especially British friends I would still be on a waitlist for a surgery I had 2+ years ago.

I’ve waited longer for basic treatment in the US than I did anywhere else in the world and still paid exponentially more.

And all that extra time and money got me was people saying “You should be glad it isn’t socialized health care!” Yeah. If it were, I would’ve gotten treated faster and cheaper.

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