Live data from Hacker News

Homes in 97% of U.S. cities are overvalued, Moody's says

cbsnews.com

51–60 of 768 posts

Re: Homes in 97% of U.S. cities are overvalued, Moody's says

#51
post #2

It doesn't help that corporations buy all these houses up at full price and well above listing just so they can use it as rental income.

This is absolutely not true. “Investor” properties account for about 18% of secondary home sales. 90% of those sales are to individuals with 1-4 properties. The remaining 10% of investor sales, ~2% of the total, is ALL of the professional invesotr purchases. Its billions of dollars, in a trillion dollar market.

No post body was provided.

Re: Homes in 97% of U.S. cities are overvalued, Moody's says

#53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No because houses as an asset class could still be overvalued relative to other assets.

So a slightly more sophisticated analysis would be "how does housing appreciation in each market compare to stock market appreciation over the same time period" - but the description in the article leaves that out, looking just at historical incomes/costs/rents. In a world where homebuying is increasingly out of reach of a larger percent of people, you'd expect it to be more disconnected with average or median income…

I mean, just about every house has an owner that lives in it.

Homes are expensive. Most people just can’t afford a big slice of land and home. They have to accept they will have to make do in an apartment that may be shared. Should the home they deserve just magically appear?

Re: Homes in 97% of U.S. cities are overvalued, Moody's says

#54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I just bought an apartment with 15% down. It's in the EU; 15% down is about the standard here with no special exceptions. With government assistance programmes it can be even 5% down but you'd have to qualify for some protected category.

How long is the rate fixed for?

The rate is based on Euribor [1], fixed for 6 months in my case (and commonly most everyone) but anything between 3 to 24 months was possible.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euribor

Re: Homes in 97% of U.S. cities are overvalued, Moody's says

#55

I used to believe such things and then I did a median income vs price per square foot worldwide comparison and it turns out the United States is one of the cheapest, if not the, cheapest place in the world when it comes to the “affordability” (median income vs price per square foot). I think the issue is that the United States has been too cheap and finally that era of abundance at a low cost is coming to an end.

Square feet aren't a great affordability measure (they tend to come in rather larger lumps). In any case, why not just continue the era of abundance? We aren't really running short on space, and there is at least some indication that the lack of housing availability is a policy failure (rather than an expected outcome of some physical process or limit).

We lack space in the few urban areas people want to live in. If people were flexible about where they wanted to live, you’d think that the cheap land/lightly zoned places would prosper, but they don’t.

Re: Homes in 97% of U.S. cities are overvalued, Moody's says

#56
post #43

Where I live, in an affluent town on the east coast, homes have been going for 50%+ over ask. And the asks were high. Something is broken. Homes that wound have been listed at $1,000,000 in 2019 are going for $1.750,000 today. Interest rates going up should cool it off but I fear it will break much of the rest of the economy. There was a massive mismatch in executive policy and fed policy and here we are.

What’s the mismatch? Biden got a trillion or two in handouts and Powell bought up all the bonds. Now Biden is taking a step back (not completely but not another trillion) and Powell said he’ll start selling.

Re: Homes in 97% of U.S. cities are overvalued, Moody's says

#57

A 10% drop is nothing for anyone that has owned for more than 3 years, at least in my area.

Where I live a house across the street that was estimated at $800K just sold for $1.3M. Our house went up 25% in 6 months. There's not enough inventory in good low crime areas. Even in less safe places we see close to zero houses for sale, and if one appears, it's sold in a week. And there won't be inventory any time soon, because residents don't want tall buildings here.

10% drop - yeah, good luck, noone will notice that.

Re: Homes in 97% of U.S. cities are overvalued, Moody's says

#58

I used to believe such things and then I did a median income vs price per square foot worldwide comparison and it turns out the United States is one of the cheapest, if not the, cheapest place in the world when it comes to the “affordability” (median income vs price per square foot). I think the issue is that the United States has been too cheap and finally that era of abundance at a low cost is coming to an end.

Such a simple analysis ignores e.g. the higher wages in the US offset by the lack of social nets

Higher average wages, but not do much higher median wages. Unless those rich people who are driving up the average are giving their money away, the ones who are closer to the median are in a sore spot.

Re: Homes in 97% of U.S. cities are overvalued, Moody's says

#59

I used to believe such things and then I did a median income vs price per square foot worldwide comparison and it turns out the United States is one of the cheapest, if not the, cheapest place in the world when it comes to the “affordability” (median income vs price per square foot). I think the issue is that the United States has been too cheap and finally that era of abundance at a low cost is coming to an end.

Such a simple analysis ignores e.g. the higher wages in the US offset by the lack of social nets

But in exchange taxes are lower.

Re: Homes in 97% of U.S. cities are overvalued, Moody's says

#60
post #36

I can’t help but think of that saying “the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” Yes, prices in many markets are very high and appreciating at a rapid clip, but if there are buyers, competition, and houses are continuing to move quickly, then it’s a bold statement to say they are overvalued and that we should predict a significant decline.

> but if there are buyers, competition, and houses are continuing to move quickly, They’re not though. Thats the whole problem. Asset bubbles can inflate the paper value and there might still be some trading activity. But if nobody can actually buy the asset, it’s pretty much useless.

People are buying them though. I think the problem is people think they’re richer than they are and don’t want to live in the places their income and wealth suggest they should. Previous generations handled this better.
Post reply on HN