Live data from Hacker News

Historic fertilizer crunch threatens food security

bloombergquint.com

421–430 of 575 posts

Re: Historic fertilizer crunch threatens food security

#421
post #408

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because they were responding to a person as if they had said it. You can't have a discussion where you just make up what the other person said and respond to that. And in fact you've done exactly the same. You've assigned a position to me that I haven't stated at all. It'd be like me ending this comment with: Why would you make such a inflammatory anti-muslim joke on Eid Al Fitr of all days?

The bug comment is not saying anyone said it. It's to demonstrate limits. On a discussion about general religions, or future relevant policies, a comment like this would be normal, "I can respect Islam but I'm not going to stop eating pork". And then I guess you would say "who said you have to stop eating pork?".

We can only guess the intent. You think it's a clever debate strategy, I think the person just wanted to provoke an argument.

Re: Historic fertilizer crunch threatens food security

#422
post #389

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They could prove their case by actually doing it at commercial farm scale. But as far as I know, no one has. Which, to me anyway, shows they're probably (but not certainly) wrong.

The comment farther up the thread (at this point anyhow)[1] references Gabe Brown. He is using very little to no commercial fertilizer on his farm and has been for years. I am guessing his audience among cash strapped young desperate farmers has increased a lot in the last 3 months. 1. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31237965

There are a couple of particularly noteworthy things about Gabe. His philosophy was a baptism by fire. He ran out of money via a combination of bad decisions and getting hit by a statistical cluster of bad years where the world seemed to be saying Fuck You in Particular (there were 4 years with catastrophic hail storms, and none of his neighbors got hit by more than 3 of them).

Some of his crops are targets of opportunity. They're a cover crop and if the weather is just right and he gets it planted in time, he might be able to harvest it, or at least graze some livestock on it, but if not, then that's fine too, because the dividends still made it worth doing.

He is a very frugal farmer, both in resources and energy. Mark Shepard, in contrast, seems to be more interested in the energy side of frugality, and is so open in his disdain for people throwing good money/time after bad that it's practically his personality. In particular he likes to rant about how utterly mathematically unsound the idea of rain barrels is, and the kind of cognitive dissonance it takes to keep telling yourself otherwise.

Re: Historic fertilizer crunch threatens food security

#423

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cars give you freedom... yes, they're a cost, they take up space, you have to build around them, but you can move wherever you want, whenever you want. I live in a country with relatively good public transport, relatively great one in the capital and few other large cities, with public bikes and biking lanes. Then 2020 came, and due to covid, no more public transport (for some time). Want to go to work? Too bad. Want…

I would argue that the urban planning that enables the use of cars actually restricts your freedom; you can't go anywhere without your car, and god forbid if you want to go to the store across the stroad, you have to cross 5 lanes of traffic. You can't walk that--or if you do, you have to cross that, and another square mile of parking lot. Cars are only synonymous with "independence" in the US because we've made it i…

> I would argue that the urban planning that enables the use of cars actually restricts your freedom; you can't go anywhere without your car, and god forbid if you want to go to the store across the stroad, you have to cross 5 lanes of traffic. You can't walk that--or if you do, you have to cross that, and another square mile of parking lot.

On the other hand, even in my urban environment, I can get to another neighborhood in less than half the time it would take me to get there by train or bus (especially if there is a transfer involved). It's also a lot more comfortable than waiting on a platform/bus stop exposed to the elements only to squeeze myself into a small box (that smells at once of urine, vomit, BO, and cigarette smoke) with dozens of strangers, some of whom are panhandling, blasting music, threatening other commuters, etc.

Moreover, my wife and I share a car, and we spend quite a lot less on it (all in: maintenance, fuel, parking, insurance, etc) than we did on public transit + rideshare + car rentals even without amortizing the car payment over the useful lifetime of the car. And of course our time and comfort are also valuable to us.

> Cars are only synonymous with "independence" in the US because we've made it impossible to be independent unless you use this giant metal box to engage with the world. To me, that's the opposite of independence.

This is a feature of the new world (not just the US), and it's a consequence of our post-car development. If Europe had the bulk of its development in the post-car era, it would've turned out the same way. Also, if you're getting around by public transit you need even bigger metal boxes and you need more of them and you have to wait for them and they are often late and you will be packed onto them like cattle and you're limited by where they go (hence the "independence" of the car).

Re: Historic fertilizer crunch threatens food security

#424
post #311

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not the first-order (i.e. direct) effects of suburban life. In fact, TBH, suburban life can be downright cozy--you got your own decent-sized home, a little patch of grass, maybe a patio, barbecue, deck, maybe even a garden. That's not the issue. It's the externalities , the downstream effects, of trying to scale up suburban living to huge numbers of people. At a small scale, a little town of a few hundred or cou…

I don't like American suburbs for me personally, but the US has tons of space and I don't understand how traffic would be better if we pushed more people into less space (with fewer streets and so on). Indeed, most big cities are famous for their congestion. With respect to prices, these are self-regulating. If prices go up, things either get denser and/or people move elsewhere. > Culture takes a dive. Again, suburbs…

> Again, suburbs aren't my thing, but it seems really offensive/chauvinistic to imply that suburban culture is lesser than urban culture. I'm sure I'm misunderstanding, and in the spirit of charity I want to give you the opportunity to set the record straight.

No, I meant that culture takes a dive from small-town culture, where you know your neighbors and shop owners.

Re: Historic fertilizer crunch threatens food security

#425
post #421

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The bug comment is not saying anyone said it. It's to demonstrate limits. On a discussion about general religions, or future relevant policies, a comment like this would be normal, "I can respect Islam but I'm not going to stop eating pork". And then I guess you would say "who said you have to stop eating pork?".

We can only guess the intent. You think it's a clever debate strategy, I think the person just wanted to provoke an argument.

Maybe. I have seen the bugs thing mentioned a lot before along with "pods" (increasingly small city apartments / tiny houses) meme.

Both are critiques of the handling of current challenges (food and housing).

To come full circle, "I support affordable housing, but I don't want to live in a pod"

;)

Re: Historic fertilizer crunch threatens food security

#426
post #311

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not the first-order (i.e. direct) effects of suburban life. In fact, TBH, suburban life can be downright cozy--you got your own decent-sized home, a little patch of grass, maybe a patio, barbecue, deck, maybe even a garden. That's not the issue. It's the externalities , the downstream effects, of trying to scale up suburban living to huge numbers of people. At a small scale, a little town of a few hundred or cou…

I don't like American suburbs for me personally, but the US has tons of space and I don't understand how traffic would be better if we pushed more people into less space (with fewer streets and so on). Indeed, most big cities are famous for their congestion. With respect to prices, these are self-regulating. If prices go up, things either get denser and/or people move elsewhere. > Culture takes a dive. Again, suburbs…

On the points of culture, there's a video [1] that talks about how common US zoning pressures towns to all build very similarly, to the point where they look almost indistinguishable from one another. There's similar videos done by City Beautiful and Not Just Bikes, but I'm having a harder time searching my history for them on my phone. (I'll try to post them once I'm back at a real computer.)

Here's another video [2] that discusses how city tax revenue is primarily earned in their dense downtown regions, and spent on their more distributed suburban environments.

Others in the comments have discussed this, but the issues with towns being walkable and cyclist friendly tend to intersect directly with anti-goals if car design. Places aren't walkable if there's huge roads and parking lots that people have to traverse in order to get to them. Similarly, cars are quite hazardous to pedestrians and cyclists. If we're optimizing for human-scale environments, we're inherently car-hostile. Similarly, if we're optimizing for efficiency of cars, then we're hostile to human-scale design. The ideas are largely antithetical.

You can get some hybridization--metra trains from city cores to the suburbs, street cars or trams along main suburban drags alongside with automobiles, but one system constrains the other.

Historically, highway systems have segregated neighborhoods whose citizens were poorer, and relied disproportionately on public transit or bikes and walking. If you have to go half a mile out of your way to find an overpass over the highway to get to the nearest grocery, and that overpass has a litter-covered sidewalk barely two feet wide, we definitely aren't building our suburbs to be walkable or bikable.

[1]: https://youtu.be/UX4KklvCDmg [2]: https://youtu.be/7Nw6qyyrTeI

Re: Historic fertilizer crunch threatens food security

#427

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We don't need meat. And there are many price and institutional barriers to completely grass fed cattle. The primary being that slaughter is centralized to FSIS inspected facilities where most non-poultry spend their final weeks packed in eating soy and corn.

We don't need coffee, tea, spices and a thousand other things you can buy at the store. But people want them, and that's unlikely to change.

>But people want them, and that's unlikely to change.

This will change when we'll have to make compromise because our current agriculture model is not sustainable (both for climate and food production).

As an aside: I stopped drinking coffee because of the environmental impact. I now drink chicory and barley coffee that's locally grown and roasted. The taste is close enough. It also makes it easier to absorb iron and vitamins (which caffeine inhibits, which does not help if you're reducing meat consumption).

Re: Historic fertilizer crunch threatens food security

#428

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you familiar of why India and China move to fertilizer in them 1980s saved the from starving? I assure it is not BS. without fertilizer you do not the explosive yields that we get all over th world including the United States. And it is in fact well documented in a huge collection of science journals.

I think you should look at what's going on with agriculture in India right now. There was a lot of bankrupt farmers in the US in the 80's, and that's happening in India over the last decade. Graphically, some farmers are taking their lives by drinking leftover pesticides when they realize they can't afford their crops this year. India is, by many accounts, likely to switch to a new-new form of agriculture sooner than…

Farming in India has been perilous for centuries because it depends on the Monsoon. Improved irrigation, better seeds and yes artificial fertilizers have all significantly improved farm incomes.

Nevertheless, structural issues remain. Farmer suicides are not even remotely new and it's disingenous to suggest otherwise. And it has to be pointed out that the suicide rate amongst Indian farmers is lower than the national average.

You'll have to pry Western farming methods from the cold dead hands of Indian farmers. Even the urban intelligencia has shut up about organic/traditional farming after seeing what's happening across the Palk Strait.

Re: Historic fertilizer crunch threatens food security

#429
post #397

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's an interesting point, but using China as an example of rational agricultural planning is a pretty poor choice considering how recently the famines resulting from the Great Leap Forward were at that point in time.

The famines were from before the rational agricultural planning.

I thought it was clear that was obvious, sorry.

My only real point was that anything could look rational after what they went through before hand.

Re: Historic fertilizer crunch threatens food security

#430
post #238

I mean, we have been depleting soil fertility through the use of synthetic fertilizers for decades. It’s been a self-destructive cycle. Perhaps some farmers might switch to practices that are not so dependent upon as much to external inputs … but even switching to things like no-till or using local inputs like manure, or using soil-regenerating practices like polycropping or integrated pest-control is going to take t…

Cubans on average lost ~6kgs during the crisis in the 90's. Sure, diabetes and heart disease dropped as a result but I would much rather have a food surplus.
Post reply on HN