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Is everything falling apart?

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Re: Is everything falling apart?

#481

Post by TimPC »

ItsMonkk wrote: post #452
TimPC wrote: post #339

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I argued for a gradual implementation of Georgist Tax Policies elsewhere in the thread so we are in agreement. I think transitioning to a LVT is a very hard problem that requires a great deal of thought and care. I'm convinced such a transition needs to be gradual because instantaneous is far too destructive. I'm also leaning towards government needing to compensate at least some of those who lose significantly in th…

I'm a huge fan of instantaneous change, as it instantly sets the incentives, but am willing to have a large transition period. If we were to do an instant change, the best way to do that is to give everyone a tax credit equal to the value of their existing land, with retirees and others who need public support having a few more options to convert those tax credits to cash.

Instantaneous change with compensation is extremely expensive. I noted in another thread that it's quite possible for the costs of compensating affected parties to reach $30.5 trillion, the current size of the US national debt. This assumed compensation had a needs component to it and only half of the US property market was compensated.

The basic issue is the current US property market is estimated at $33.6 trillion. If you assume 80% of that is land value you end up needing to compensate 26.88 trillion. On the other side of the market you have mortgages you put under water that people will walk away from. The mortgage market in the US is $17.6 trillion. If you assume 80% of mortgages are walked away from and the mortgages end up 70% underwater you end up having to compensate $9.856 trillion dollars. So solving the residential portion of compensation potentially costs $36.736 trillion dollars. If you have compensation in the commercial and industrial land markets as well that makes things even more expensive.

Re: Is everything falling apart?

#482

Post by Clubber »

sleepdreamy wrote: post #441
Clubber wrote: post #374

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>And the baby boomers who created the upset of the 60's are now in charge, and their disillusioned leadership is pushing these divisions ever wider. Why do people think of an entire generation of people as a single minded entity? Might as well say, "women," or "men," or "humans." Did you know the majority of baby boomers weren't hippies? Looking at documentaries of the era, you'd think they were. Many boomers hated h…

Is this sarcasm? It's truly laughable if you don't think boomers had a clear advantage in comparison to Millennials, Gen X, etc; I'm sorry you didn't reap the benefits of the most benevolent time in America's history but plenty of your Boomer counter-parts sure as hell did. I've met enough Boomers that there is nothing wrong with generalizing Boomers as a whole. Just like a huge percentage of my generation totally ga…

>You might not like it, but Boomers took their hoard and pulled the ladder up behind them. It is what it is.

And what mechanism did they use to do this exactly?

>I've met enough Boomers that there is nothing wrong with generalizing Boomers as a whole. Just like a huge percentage of my generation totally gave up and resort to 'UNFAIR MEH WON'T TRY NOW'. Am in that camp? No. I don't get upset when people generalize because it doesn't pertain to me as an individual. There is some truth to prejudice

Its an unwillingness to understand the predicament or situation and just blaming it on a group of people. It's pretty common throughout history; a weapon wielded by the powerful.

>I'm sorry you didn't reap the benefits of the most benevolent time in America's history but plenty of your Boomer counter-parts sure as hell did.

I'm not a Boomer.

Re: Is everything falling apart?

#483

Post by xyzzyz »

newbamboo wrote: post #471
hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #455

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think there is a real danger in just arguing basically "things have always been a shit show, empires collapse, pandemics rage, etc. etc." for a couple reasons: 1. While true, lets not ignore the fact that things get really, really, really bad during those periods where empires do collapse, or environmental damage causes ecosystem collapse, etc. etc. I mean, yes, you could argue "Hey, the Black Death killed a 3rd of…

Why not talk about nuclear war? It’s one of several elephants in the room. The full collapse of a nuclear super power is unprecedented. Who gets the weapons?

USSR has fully collapsed, and the few years after its collapse were almost total anarchy.

Re: Is everything falling apart?

#484

Post by [deleted] »

shadowgovt wrote: post #280
ravenstine wrote: post #111

Everything is not falling apart, though certain institutions may be falling apart. In America, there's definitely been a breakdown of belief in its own institutions. Far more people are skeptical of things like journalism and Silicon Valley; it really wasn't that long ago that the former was constantly salivating over the latter, but now it's more of an openly vulture-carrion relationship because that caters to publi…

One of the disadvantages to democracy that Thomas Paine actually highlighted in "Common Sense" is that when things are off the rails in a monarchy, the cause (and remedy) are obvious. In a democracy, far less so. When Americans elect bad leadership, they ultimately have nobody to blame but themselves, and that damages the public attitude; I suspect one of the reasons "stolen election" conspiracy theories are so popul…

[deleted]

Re: Is everything falling apart?

#485

Post by shadowgovt »

AutumnCurtain wrote: post #439
shadowgovt wrote: post #280

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One of the disadvantages to democracy that Thomas Paine actually highlighted in "Common Sense" is that when things are off the rails in a monarchy, the cause (and remedy) are obvious. In a democracy, far less so. When Americans elect bad leadership, they ultimately have nobody to blame but themselves, and that damages the public attitude; I suspect one of the reasons "stolen election" conspiracy theories are so popul…

>I suspect one of the reasons "stolen election" conspiracy theories are so popular right now is that the alternative is one must simply be skeptical of the good judgment of one's neighbors, and people don't want to live like that I suspect it's because the major politicians of one of the two major parties overwhelmingly tell them it was. Trump says so, the Republicans who follow him say so, and the alternative is to…

The fact that the leadership of a major party has chosen to not show restraint is certainly part of it. But there is a reason that their message is resonating instead of the voters just turning away in disgust and the party replacing those pressing that narrative with someone else in the party as leadership. Instead, the party is bending towards that messaging because it is resonating with voters.

Re: Is everything falling apart?

#486

Post by danamit »

myth_drannon wrote: post #119
watwut wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Contrapoint: it is actually good for Americans to worry about whether democracy will be destroyed in their country. Complacency and ignoring issues with "there are other countries that got it worst" may sounds smart or "worldwide-inclusive", but does not help neither Bosnians nor Americans. Possibly the most politically apathetic nation is Russia .. and where it got them. Political apathy is what you get in autocraci…

Well look at Israel, it had so many wars(some it almost lost). I would argue it made it stronger, more cohesive. I hope the same happens to Ukraine, despite the price it is paying.

Israel is a nuclear power supported by the West, there is no almost losing.

Re: Is everything falling apart?

#487

Post by ModernMech »

hunterb123 wrote: post #223
4ggr0 wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> People will cite AOC as the most radical leftist they can think of, and even her Green New Deal is fundamentally grounded in the ideals of capitalism. Not very radical leftist if you ask me. That's what I think is strange. Same thing happens in my country, some people say that our country is turning into a far-leftist woke-nation. Even though center-right parties are in majority and most elected on the left aren't…

The GND is not about being green, it's about redistributing wealth and laundering taxpayer money. It's about spending trillions more, causing more inflation, and things falling further apart. AOC is a radical, and honestly she has no idea what she's promoting, like most of her followers.

Redistributing wealth and laundering taxpayer money is standard politics, not radical at all. The point is making is that she’s not a radical leftist. Insofar as you consider the GND to be redistributive it’s not doing so in a way that actual radical leftists would support. So how is she a radical leftist then?

Re: Is everything falling apart?

#488

Post by nradov »

basisword wrote: post #401
dv_dt wrote: post #368

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you look at life expectancy in the America, it has been flat to reversing. Understandably with added pressure from Covid, but at a rate higher even with Covid higher than all other well resourced major nations. This not because we are unable, but because those with the power are unwilling to engage fundamental issues. Covid is not the only issue for which this is the case - it was happening before covid. Multiple…

>> If you look at life expectancy in the America, it has been flat to reversing. >> Multiple major issues with scientific and economic root causes are simply being ignored as stability and promises of improved prosperity provided by civilization is going backwards. How much of this can be explained by the fact that one third of adults in the US are obese as opposed to major scientific and economic issues?

The obesity rate is up to 42% now and still climbing.

https://www.tfah.org/report-details/state-of-obesity-2020/

This is closely correlated with the COVID-19 death rate.

https://www.wfae.org/health/2021-09-30/novant-says-9-of-10-c...

Re: Is everything falling apart?

#489

Post by [deleted] »

bsenftner wrote: post #318
b112 wrote: post #273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, the 60s was far, far, far more disillusioned than this.

And the baby boomers who created the upset of the 60's are now in charge, and their disillusioned leadership is pushing these divisions ever wider. They are the institutions and they do not trust themselves, as is clear via the leadership stalemate and both parties destroying their best hopes in favor of the crumbling and ever more distant wealthy status quo.

[deleted]

Re: Is everything falling apart?

#490

Post by Melatonic »

oicU00 wrote: post #252
ravenstine wrote: post #111

Everything is not falling apart, though certain institutions may be falling apart. In America, there's definitely been a breakdown of belief in its own institutions. Far more people are skeptical of things like journalism and Silicon Valley; it really wasn't that long ago that the former was constantly salivating over the latter, but now it's more of an openly vulture-carrion relationship because that caters to publi…

Oh yeah no doubt; I collate trends into reports for rich investors. Lately they have been focused on youth trends, and some numbers are wacky. 40% point drop in 16 year olds getting a license since the 80s as urbanization puts people closer to stuff and ride share appeared. Youth participation in sports, especially full contact sports, had been going down since before covid which just accelerated it, leading to forec…

A lot of those very much do not sound like "things are falling apart" to me
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